More boards, more software (2011 - 01 - 24)


benji_stein

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So a bit of a preamble: This post started as a clarification/uncertainty, but while doing the research, my post grew out of my control a little. But I think it's interesting, so please bear with me. Hope it's useful, and I apologize in advance if some of my links are off.

Well... I can't see how often this question has been answered during the last few weeks over and over again, but I can understand you asking ;)


1. About 150-200 units (AFAIR) were one-nubbers, as a lot of nubs were broken. The people who wanted them could skip the queue.


2. Remove about 100-150 units for replacements.


3. Remove about 1/4th for units that went to Germany.


So: 1600 - (1600/4) - 200 - 100 = about 900 shipped from Craigs queue.


I've seen users reporting they were in Craigs queue about 800 and received their units.


Some units take about 2 weeks shipping (depending on shipping service, customs, etc.), so those guys are waiting for their units even though they have been shipped already.


Sometimes Jacquelyne did a mistake (found something like that a few days on this board, where someone was given a too low queue number and when he asked, he got the correct one), she's only human.

So I'd like to reflect on these numbers a little.


At the end of December, CC shipped 350 boards.


They arrived, and another 350 were supposed to ship the following week, which Craig also mentioned.


They were more efficient than expected, and produced 400.


Meanwhile, Craig was well into building those first 350, also indicated by 800 successful nubs (e.g. 400 Pandoras). So now we're up to 750 Boards..


He hoped to reach 550 by the 7th or so (end of the week of the 6th), and I'd thought he'd reached his goal, but clearly didn't, since it was still his goal the following week. (Very misleading, but typical, I guess.) It's now the 12th.


At the end of that week, you tell us about another 500 coming. At the time, I took this to mean that they *had* shipped, and that when Craig next said he was starting to build the next 500 they were getting built, but on reflection now, I think he was actually referring to the prepping the LCD halves from before. (Again, misleading.)


Side note - remind me, again, why so few of the cases were prebuilt and waiting, when Craig said he would. The idea, as ED explained, was "Craig prepares the 2000 cases: The Pandora can already be fully assembled without the boards. This saves A LOT of time later, as all that’ll left to do then is stick in the boards, test and flash."


Anyway, back to boards. It's the 17th, and CC should have sent (and Craig received) 750 boards, give or take a few. 500 are pending, but I guess that they never actually sent them all, because on the 19th/20th(depending on timezone) you tell us CC has only dispatched 250 of them. On the plus side, 500 more Pandoras have now been released (does this include repairs and the 20 or so refurbs on ebay?), with more leaving the nest every day.


Shipping took about a week (probably a little less, which is very reasonable), as you told us a few days ago. 60 or so (plus ICP parts) are in transit - my guess is they're boards that had nubs repaired - so they're duplicates in our counting. (On the other hand, Pandoras sent as customer replacements are probably counted twice as well, so perhaps we should.)


I'll assume (read: hope dearly) that the original 750 (350+400) are all built and shipped now, plus those 500 cases Craig spoke of. That should (again, hopefully) be enough for the remaining 250 he just got that you say he's working on.


So it matches the 1600 produced listed on the website, though that number includes the holdbacks for replacements, one-nubbers, etc., so it's a bit lower in the queue than it looks, as you say.


Another 500 boards at the end of the week brings us to a respectable 2500 (ish) total Pandoras (again including all those holdbacks). However it does mean only 1500 new boards from CC. So in the past month, they've only created 1150 boards - those first 350 were shipped on the 22nd, so you can't count them. The first 400 were built in about two weeks, but that matches the 1150 in 5-6 weeks, so they can do about 200 a week, give or take.


On the other hand, they keep claiming they have lots of boards (500 several times), and then only shipping 250 every other week or so - you've only recieved a total of 650 boards past the first 350, in that same 5-6 weeks - so I wonder where the discrepancy is. They say they have a big shipment, but have they sent any? Were all of those 400 boards made over Christmas-New Years actually shipped, and received, or were they smaller numbers, like the last time? You often only tell us the numbers CC tells us they "have", and pretty rarely the ones actually received. I'd personally like to see a little more of those. I appreciate the estimates as well, but the facts above start to make me doubt CC, again (not going to go there, here).


Revisiting the original numbers from ED, above, I'd personally hope that the quarter sent to you comes after the refurbs/one-nubbers, or at least that you keep stock of your own surplus. Or do you keep back 5% of that quarter? I also wonder a little about the number of replacements - I believe there are 100 of them, but then why did some people have to wait months for boards with new nubs, if there were extras lying around?


Anyway... redoing, we get:


1650 (should be more after half a week on those 250)


- 200 (one-nubbers)


- 150 (replacements)


= 1300.


1300/4 = 325 go to ED's shop, so we're left with ~975 sent to Craig's customers. Factor in a bunch of people ordering more than one, and so on. I have difficulty estimating that, but let's call it one in 10. Some ordered more, but many probably didn't. OPT, feel free to correct this number. That gives us somewhere around order number 875, give or take.


It doesn't quite jive with Craig's "Everyone up to approx 1000-1200 will have their unit shipped before the end of next week.", but it fits in better if you consider that as the overall 1200, and not just the craig-specific 1200.


Of course, all these order numbers are imprecise and approximate, and I've seen some evidence that Jacquelyn is now trying to estimate queue numbers and take into account multiples and ED's orders. So results may vary, numbers may not be accurate, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda.


Still interesting, nonetheless, IMHO.


Now on to Craig:

I have 3000 cases here, not 2000.


Well, had 3000, obviously a lot are now shipped.

Does that 3000 include the original 1000, or were those all from the later run?


Because I was under the impression that after the first thousand, you ordered 4000-5000 more ("what you needed plus an extra 1k", but I'm unclear on why you would have needed 4000 still for the first batch), but only flew 2000 of them to the UK (and arrived). The remaining (3k? 2k) cases were to be sent by ship, didn't, in case you were going to move production, and then were recently sent by boat, and shouldn't be there yet.


Better yet, the current status page would disagree, and say that there are only 2000 there, minus the 700 or so you recently built/shipped.


Either way, I'm a bit unclear where your "currently 3000" is coming from, and a lot of your numbers in the past (see first chunk of this post) have been pretty misleading, so I'd really appreciate clarification.


Furthermore, I'm still pretty curious about the LCD half situation - why were so few built, when so much was to gain by building them earlier? A fair while ago more LCD cables were made, and so I would have thought the lids could be prebuilt. I also thought there were only 1000 or so cables that were still remaining, but I can't find the quote, so perhaps I'm misremembering. But they're simple parts from CC, right? What was their big holdup on them? It's not like they were waiting on the nubs...


Anyway, thanks for reading. I hope it was as enlightening as it was to write.
 
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Jumpman

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I believe 1000 was produced and sent originally incase of problems, and then they had 4000 done. 2000 was then shipped, and that is where the 3000 come from. The remaining 2000 are on the way by boat(they have been kept at the factory until it was decided where production would continue).


I'm sure someone elso can confirm this info, as my memory gets very blurry as the weeks and months slip by, especially around here. Everyday is a new cluster @#$% of numbers and questions.


Chris
 
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pem_69

Guest
Interesting. Know what? We make a deal: You get to know exactly when the pandora will ship. And since that is all you've ever wanted, it ships to me.

*claps* Very nicely done! :) (Honestly - no sarcasm)


And I'll make you a deal. If you can tell me exactly when it will ship (and it's right), I'll send you twenty bucks in the mail, once it does.

Now stop being melodramatic. It'll come in time. It'll come quicker if the relevant people (Craig, ED, Jaquelyn) can work with building and shipping pandoras, instead of answering the same silly questions over and over and over again. Try not to think about it too much, in order to not die from high blood pressure before it arrives.

I don't think it will come appreciably quicker. And more to the point, I think too many people will still ask these questions, unfortunate as it is, because OPT has already shown that they answer them. Instead of that, they should make it simpler for people to find this information themselves. An approximate number, better progress updates (the new status page does make it better), whatever.

No, it wouldn't slow them down any. Because they'd get Jacquelyn to take care of it.
This...speaks for itself.

In all seriousness, I'm not sure what your issue here is. OPT is either paying Jacquelyn to help with sales (we can hope), or she's doing it in her free time. Either way, she answers these questions, and it takes a lot of time out of her other work. If she had a faster way to do it, it would take less time, and she could do other things. That's a damn good incentive to figure out a global order list, not to mention simplifying who to ship to next. It's win-win.

It's not like they took your money and went partying in the Bahamas with it. They need the money to buy the parts, assemble them and kickstart the machine. If you don't like that and want a 2-business-days-delivery, that's perfectly fine and you can cancel your order, and come back when the production issues are sorted and there is no delay in ordering. But no need to come whinging here, where that is badly regarded.

They needed it, and I was fine with that ... two years ago. Designing and tweaking is more than just assembly + parts. And there's the gross overestimation. But let's not rehash that here. My intent is not to whine right now, but it does certainly seem that any naysayer or person who brings up criticism is shot down far too fast. Questioning is healthy. Blind following is not.
 
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benji_stein

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I believe 1000 was produced and sent originally incase of problems, and then they had 4000 done. 2000 was then shipped, and that is where the 3000 come from. The remaining 2000 are on the way by boat(they have been kept at the factory until it was decided where production would continue).


I'm sure someone elso can confirm this info, as my memory gets very blurry as the weeks and months slip by, especially around here. Everyday is a new cluster @#$% of numbers and questions.


Chris

Well, yeah. But that's the confusing part. I agree on the first 1k, that was pretty straightforward.


But I'm confused, because in an old posting:


ED first says "All cases needed for the first batch + additional 1000 ones have been produced and painted already."


The first batch was 4k, or 3k remaining. So 4k extra cases here.


In the next two sentences, he says "2000 of those cases did already arrive in UK" (it's clear these don't include the first 1k)


and then "The rest of the cases (3000) will arrive via ship".


So they made 1k+2k+3k = 6k, which is not 1k more than the number needed for the first batch.


Craig says there's 3k in the UK, but not if that includes the original 1k or not.


The current status page says there's only 2k in the UK, and that "the remaining" 2k are in transit on ship (2k+2k = 4k), but that 5k boards were made, total.


cluster @#$% it is.


@pem - I agree with you completely on order numbers; I've said it before as well. Face facts - they're never going to do it. I can't tell you to drop it, because I don't want to, either. As long as you're honest with yourself about why you're posting it.
 

moxie

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And more to the point, I think too many people will still ask these questions, unfortunate as it is, because OPT has already shown that they answer them. Instead of that, they should make it simpler for people to find this information themselves. An approximate number, better progress updates (the new status page does make it better), whatever.

Which won't help things, either, because people will still ask inane questions. "How come I'm at position X and not Y?" "Why did he get his and not I?" "I am certain that I ordered before that time - Your lists are a scam!!!" and so on, and so on. It never ends. It was stupid of them to try to answer at all - That is the mistake, not trying to feed the insatiable information monster with little appetizers.

No, it wouldn't slow them down any. Because they'd get Jacquelyn to take care of it.
This...speaks for itself.
In all seriousness, I'm not sure what your issue here is.

That "them" is a set that contains the individual "Jacquelyn".

OPT is either paying Jacquelyn to help with sales (we can hope), or she's doing it in her free time. Either way, she answers these questions, and it takes a lot of time out of her other work. If she had a faster way to do it, it would take less time, and she could do other things. That's a damn good incentive to figure out a global order list, not to mention simplifying who to ship to next. It's win-win.

The fast way is to just say no. The problem is probably not to find out who to ship to next - That is the next fella in the order list. The problem is that as you traverse the list, not every list element is to be counted, and some elements will count for more than one. Some people have cancelled their order - You skip those. Some have gotten a one-nubber - You skip those. Some have ordered 2 - Those are counted double. This information is dynamic - People do cancel orders, or add to orders (possibly not), so any fixed list will be inaccurate after a few days.


Then, even if you have a list of all the orders to be shipped, numbered, magically fixed (as in immutable) and ready to go, it still is not enough, because not all of the pandoras built go to people on the order list. Some go as RMA replacements, some fail in testing and needs to be dealt with, and so on. So even if the list tells you that you're in position 200, and Craig tweets that he has built 300, it is still no guarantee that you'll get yours. And so the inanity deluge starts again - "Oh, but he said 300! And even discounting EDs units, that means I ought to have gotten The Email, and I haven't! The queue numbers are all made up! I'm a victim of discrimination! Craig is a conman and a crook! I will now call Jacquelyn and demand my real queue number!!!"


It never stops until people realise that their request is unreasonable, not because it is impossible to find out the length of the queue now - that is doable - but because that length will change between now and shipping time, and that the number of pandoras built is not a 1 to 1 mapping to pandoras shipped.
 

Jumpman

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Yeah Moxie, you said it well.


At this point, you either exept the fact that an exact postion number is never going to happen like many of us realised last may, or your going to keep fighting and explain how it could be done, and should be done, and be pissed off day after day, week after week, and month after month as it doesn't happen.


At the end of the day it doesn't matter what may or may not be done, the truth is the team hasn't done it, and I would say at this point they are not going to. A good solid number of units are shipping weekly, so if things keep up, EVERYONE in the first batch will have there unit within the next 30-45 days. That's where everyones focus should be, as we can all finally see the light at the end of a very, very, very long tunnel. Thank GOD! ;)


Chris
 
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pem_69

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No, it wouldn't slow them down any. Because they'd get Jacquelyn to take care of it.
This...speaks for itself.
In all seriousness, I'm not sure what your issue here is.

That "them" is a set that contains the individual "Jacquelyn".

Actually, it didn't.

Let Craig build units, and not waste time figuring out where you are in the queue, and taking pictures, and doing video's. There are many who now have units who can take pics, and video's, and actually give samll repair advice. Craig, ED, and Michael need to deal with business issues, batch 2 preperations, firmware fixes, the list goes on and on. Production is finally moving forward as it should have, and we are still getting the same useless question from last may when units started shipping. Let's not waste key members time with questions that only waste their time, and fuel more useless debates.

That's the 'they' I always use when referring to the OPT.

Which won't help things, either, because people will still ask inane questions. "How come I'm at position X and not Y?" "Why did he get his and not I?" "I am certain that I ordered before that time - Your lists are a scam!!!" and so on, and so on. It never ends. It was stupid of them to try to answer at all - That is the mistake, not trying to feed the insatiable information monster with little appetizers.


The fast way is to just say no. The problem is probably not to find out who to ship to next - That is the next fella in the order list. The problem is that as you traverse the list, not every list element is to be counted, and some elements will count for more than one. Some people have cancelled their order - You skip those. Some have gotten a one-nubber - You skip those. Some have ordered 2 - Those are counted double. This information is dynamic - People do cancel orders, or add to orders (possibly not), so any fixed list will be inaccurate after a few days.


Then, even if you have a list of all the orders to be shipped, numbered, magically fixed (as in immutable) and ready to go, it still is not enough, because not all of the pandoras built go to people on the order list. Some go as RMA replacements, some fail in testing and needs to be dealt with, and so on. So even if the list tells you that you're in position 200, and Craig tweets that he has built 300, it is still no guarantee that you'll get yours. And so the inanity deluge starts again - "Oh, but he said 300! And even discounting EDs units, that means I ought to have gotten The Email, and I haven't! The queue numbers are all made up! I'm a victim of discrimination! Craig is a conman and a crook! I will now call Jacquelyn and demand my real queue number!!!"


It never stops until people realise that their request is unreasonable, not because it is impossible to find out the length of the queue now - that is doable - but because that length will change between now and shipping time, and that the number of pandoras built is not a 1 to 1 mapping to pandoras shipped.

If you have some kind of automated - or centralized - system, then the rest of these things get updated when orders change or ship. You get a easy counter of how many were made vs. how many shipped. It's easy to say they held back some number.


The order numbers have always been approximate - in ranges of 100 as far as I can tell - and giving that is fine. But confusion abounds when they tell us they've made 1600, and then that everyone up to "queue number 1200" should be shipping soon. I think it's intended.

Yeah Moxie, you said it well.


At this point, you either exept the fact that an exact postion number is never going to happen like many of us realised last may, or your going to keep fighting and explain how it could be done, and should be done, and be pissed off day after day, week after week, and month after month as it doesn't happen.


At the end of the day it doesn't matter what may or may not be done, the truth is the team hasn't done it, and I would say at this point they are not going to. A good solid number of units are shipping weekly, so if things keep up, EVERYONE in the first batch will have there unit within the next 30-45 days. That's where everyones focus should be, as we can all finally see the light at the end of a very, very, very long tunnel. Thank GOD! ;)


Chris

I don't think it's a solid number. Look at the above posting. I count ~700 pandoras built (and how many of those actually shipped?) in 5-6 weeks. Being generous, that's 140/week. So to finish the last 2400 Pandoras in batch one, we're at 16 weeks. That's a lot farther than your hopeful 30-45 days!


Add on even more with this new "wait longer for your first batch order" that's being proposed.
 
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mmielke

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No wonder, how the Pandora for the "Pandora in 7 Days" aktion are come from,

I realize that queue positions are pretty worthless, but if I am in the 850-950th place in the Batch 2 queue, does that mean that I am at least 800 Pandoras closer to receiving mine? I don't mind waiting, but am curious.
 

dreamer

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^ don't mean to be rude, but can batch 2 people please zip-it until batch 1 is done?


kthnx :)
 

marktuson

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I don't think it's a solid number. Look at the above posting. I count ~700 pandoras built (and how many of those actually shipped?) in 5-6 weeks. Being generous, that's 140/week. So to finish the last 2400 Pandoras in batch one, we're at 16 weeks. That's a lot farther than your hopeful 30-45 days!
Add on even more with this new "wait longer for your first batch order" that's being proposed.
In that case, where did the idea that Batch 1 would be done for about now come from? Where does this end? It's getting to be like some sort of joke - a very badly executed one. As I've said before, I ordered when they were a single month off shipping, and that was nearly nine months ago, now. As a member of the community, I really want to be understanding and nice about it, but as a customer - which, at the end of the day, I am - I really want what I payed for. If this wasn't a small company that had been having trouble, I'd be taking OPT to court about now. And as far as what I've just read this evening goes, I'm getting truly worried: a thousand cancellations? That's ~£340,000, enough to knock the whole project into the Bottomless Ditch. Which makes me want to ask me for a refund myself, right now, before OPT bankrupts, taking my student loan with them.


In all, this is bad. What's going to happen now? We're going to get our Pandoras, hopefully. But when it gets to 12 May and I haven't got my Pandora... well, I might become huge and green.
 
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