benji_stein
Member
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2007
- Messages
- 278
So a bit of a preamble: This post started as a clarification/uncertainty, but while doing the research, my post grew out of my control a little. But I think it's interesting, so please bear with me. Hope it's useful, and I apologize in advance if some of my links are off.
So I'd like to reflect on these numbers a little.
At the end of December, CC shipped 350 boards.
They arrived, and another 350 were supposed to ship the following week, which Craig also mentioned.
They were more efficient than expected, and produced 400.
Meanwhile, Craig was well into building those first 350, also indicated by 800 successful nubs (e.g. 400 Pandoras). So now we're up to 750 Boards..
He hoped to reach 550 by the 7th or so (end of the week of the 6th), and I'd thought he'd reached his goal, but clearly didn't, since it was still his goal the following week. (Very misleading, but typical, I guess.) It's now the 12th.
At the end of that week, you tell us about another 500 coming. At the time, I took this to mean that they *had* shipped, and that when Craig next said he was starting to build the next 500 they were getting built, but on reflection now, I think he was actually referring to the prepping the LCD halves from before. (Again, misleading.)
Side note - remind me, again, why so few of the cases were prebuilt and waiting, when Craig said he would. The idea, as ED explained, was "Craig prepares the 2000 cases: The Pandora can already be fully assembled without the boards. This saves A LOT of time later, as all that’ll left to do then is stick in the boards, test and flash."
Anyway, back to boards. It's the 17th, and CC should have sent (and Craig received) 750 boards, give or take a few. 500 are pending, but I guess that they never actually sent them all, because on the 19th/20th(depending on timezone) you tell us CC has only dispatched 250 of them. On the plus side, 500 more Pandoras have now been released (does this include repairs and the 20 or so refurbs on ebay?), with more leaving the nest every day.
Shipping took about a week (probably a little less, which is very reasonable), as you told us a few days ago. 60 or so (plus ICP parts) are in transit - my guess is they're boards that had nubs repaired - so they're duplicates in our counting. (On the other hand, Pandoras sent as customer replacements are probably counted twice as well, so perhaps we should.)
I'll assume (read: hope dearly) that the original 750 (350+400) are all built and shipped now, plus those 500 cases Craig spoke of. That should (again, hopefully) be enough for the remaining 250 he just got that you say he's working on.
So it matches the 1600 produced listed on the website, though that number includes the holdbacks for replacements, one-nubbers, etc., so it's a bit lower in the queue than it looks, as you say.
Another 500 boards at the end of the week brings us to a respectable 2500 (ish) total Pandoras (again including all those holdbacks). However it does mean only 1500 new boards from CC. So in the past month, they've only created 1150 boards - those first 350 were shipped on the 22nd, so you can't count them. The first 400 were built in about two weeks, but that matches the 1150 in 5-6 weeks, so they can do about 200 a week, give or take.
On the other hand, they keep claiming they have lots of boards (500 several times), and then only shipping 250 every other week or so - you've only recieved a total of 650 boards past the first 350, in that same 5-6 weeks - so I wonder where the discrepancy is. They say they have a big shipment, but have they sent any? Were all of those 400 boards made over Christmas-New Years actually shipped, and received, or were they smaller numbers, like the last time? You often only tell us the numbers CC tells us they "have", and pretty rarely the ones actually received. I'd personally like to see a little more of those. I appreciate the estimates as well, but the facts above start to make me doubt CC, again (not going to go there, here).
Revisiting the original numbers from ED, above, I'd personally hope that the quarter sent to you comes after the refurbs/one-nubbers, or at least that you keep stock of your own surplus. Or do you keep back 5% of that quarter? I also wonder a little about the number of replacements - I believe there are 100 of them, but then why did some people have to wait months for boards with new nubs, if there were extras lying around?
Anyway... redoing, we get:
1650 (should be more after half a week on those 250)
- 200 (one-nubbers)
- 150 (replacements)
= 1300.
1300/4 = 325 go to ED's shop, so we're left with ~975 sent to Craig's customers. Factor in a bunch of people ordering more than one, and so on. I have difficulty estimating that, but let's call it one in 10. Some ordered more, but many probably didn't. OPT, feel free to correct this number. That gives us somewhere around order number 875, give or take.
It doesn't quite jive with Craig's "Everyone up to approx 1000-1200 will have their unit shipped before the end of next week.", but it fits in better if you consider that as the overall 1200, and not just the craig-specific 1200.
Of course, all these order numbers are imprecise and approximate, and I've seen some evidence that Jacquelyn is now trying to estimate queue numbers and take into account multiples and ED's orders. So results may vary, numbers may not be accurate, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda.
Still interesting, nonetheless, IMHO.
Now on to Craig:
Does that 3000 include the original 1000, or were those all from the later run?
Because I was under the impression that after the first thousand, you ordered 4000-5000 more ("what you needed plus an extra 1k", but I'm unclear on why you would have needed 4000 still for the first batch), but only flew 2000 of them to the UK (and arrived). The remaining (3k? 2k) cases were to be sent by ship, didn't, in case you were going to move production, and then were recently sent by boat, and shouldn't be there yet.
Better yet, the current status page would disagree, and say that there are only 2000 there, minus the 700 or so you recently built/shipped.
Either way, I'm a bit unclear where your "currently 3000" is coming from, and a lot of your numbers in the past (see first chunk of this post) have been pretty misleading, so I'd really appreciate clarification.
Furthermore, I'm still pretty curious about the LCD half situation - why were so few built, when so much was to gain by building them earlier? A fair while ago more LCD cables were made, and so I would have thought the lids could be prebuilt. I also thought there were only 1000 or so cables that were still remaining, but I can't find the quote, so perhaps I'm misremembering. But they're simple parts from CC, right? What was their big holdup on them? It's not like they were waiting on the nubs...
Anyway, thanks for reading. I hope it was as enlightening as it was to write.
Well... I can't see how often this question has been answered during the last few weeks over and over again, but I can understand you asking
1. About 150-200 units (AFAIR) were one-nubbers, as a lot of nubs were broken. The people who wanted them could skip the queue.
2. Remove about 100-150 units for replacements.
3. Remove about 1/4th for units that went to Germany.
So: 1600 - (1600/4) - 200 - 100 = about 900 shipped from Craigs queue.
I've seen users reporting they were in Craigs queue about 800 and received their units.
Some units take about 2 weeks shipping (depending on shipping service, customs, etc.), so those guys are waiting for their units even though they have been shipped already.
Sometimes Jacquelyne did a mistake (found something like that a few days on this board, where someone was given a too low queue number and when he asked, he got the correct one), she's only human.
So I'd like to reflect on these numbers a little.
At the end of December, CC shipped 350 boards.
They arrived, and another 350 were supposed to ship the following week, which Craig also mentioned.
They were more efficient than expected, and produced 400.
Meanwhile, Craig was well into building those first 350, also indicated by 800 successful nubs (e.g. 400 Pandoras). So now we're up to 750 Boards..
He hoped to reach 550 by the 7th or so (end of the week of the 6th), and I'd thought he'd reached his goal, but clearly didn't, since it was still his goal the following week. (Very misleading, but typical, I guess.) It's now the 12th.
At the end of that week, you tell us about another 500 coming. At the time, I took this to mean that they *had* shipped, and that when Craig next said he was starting to build the next 500 they were getting built, but on reflection now, I think he was actually referring to the prepping the LCD halves from before. (Again, misleading.)
Side note - remind me, again, why so few of the cases were prebuilt and waiting, when Craig said he would. The idea, as ED explained, was "Craig prepares the 2000 cases: The Pandora can already be fully assembled without the boards. This saves A LOT of time later, as all that’ll left to do then is stick in the boards, test and flash."
Anyway, back to boards. It's the 17th, and CC should have sent (and Craig received) 750 boards, give or take a few. 500 are pending, but I guess that they never actually sent them all, because on the 19th/20th(depending on timezone) you tell us CC has only dispatched 250 of them. On the plus side, 500 more Pandoras have now been released (does this include repairs and the 20 or so refurbs on ebay?), with more leaving the nest every day.
Shipping took about a week (probably a little less, which is very reasonable), as you told us a few days ago. 60 or so (plus ICP parts) are in transit - my guess is they're boards that had nubs repaired - so they're duplicates in our counting. (On the other hand, Pandoras sent as customer replacements are probably counted twice as well, so perhaps we should.)
I'll assume (read: hope dearly) that the original 750 (350+400) are all built and shipped now, plus those 500 cases Craig spoke of. That should (again, hopefully) be enough for the remaining 250 he just got that you say he's working on.
So it matches the 1600 produced listed on the website, though that number includes the holdbacks for replacements, one-nubbers, etc., so it's a bit lower in the queue than it looks, as you say.
Another 500 boards at the end of the week brings us to a respectable 2500 (ish) total Pandoras (again including all those holdbacks). However it does mean only 1500 new boards from CC. So in the past month, they've only created 1150 boards - those first 350 were shipped on the 22nd, so you can't count them. The first 400 were built in about two weeks, but that matches the 1150 in 5-6 weeks, so they can do about 200 a week, give or take.
On the other hand, they keep claiming they have lots of boards (500 several times), and then only shipping 250 every other week or so - you've only recieved a total of 650 boards past the first 350, in that same 5-6 weeks - so I wonder where the discrepancy is. They say they have a big shipment, but have they sent any? Were all of those 400 boards made over Christmas-New Years actually shipped, and received, or were they smaller numbers, like the last time? You often only tell us the numbers CC tells us they "have", and pretty rarely the ones actually received. I'd personally like to see a little more of those. I appreciate the estimates as well, but the facts above start to make me doubt CC, again (not going to go there, here).
Revisiting the original numbers from ED, above, I'd personally hope that the quarter sent to you comes after the refurbs/one-nubbers, or at least that you keep stock of your own surplus. Or do you keep back 5% of that quarter? I also wonder a little about the number of replacements - I believe there are 100 of them, but then why did some people have to wait months for boards with new nubs, if there were extras lying around?
Anyway... redoing, we get:
1650 (should be more after half a week on those 250)
- 200 (one-nubbers)
- 150 (replacements)
= 1300.
1300/4 = 325 go to ED's shop, so we're left with ~975 sent to Craig's customers. Factor in a bunch of people ordering more than one, and so on. I have difficulty estimating that, but let's call it one in 10. Some ordered more, but many probably didn't. OPT, feel free to correct this number. That gives us somewhere around order number 875, give or take.
It doesn't quite jive with Craig's "Everyone up to approx 1000-1200 will have their unit shipped before the end of next week.", but it fits in better if you consider that as the overall 1200, and not just the craig-specific 1200.
Of course, all these order numbers are imprecise and approximate, and I've seen some evidence that Jacquelyn is now trying to estimate queue numbers and take into account multiples and ED's orders. So results may vary, numbers may not be accurate, IANAL, yadda yadda yadda.
Still interesting, nonetheless, IMHO.
Now on to Craig:
Does that 3000 include the original 1000, or were those all from the later run?
Because I was under the impression that after the first thousand, you ordered 4000-5000 more ("what you needed plus an extra 1k", but I'm unclear on why you would have needed 4000 still for the first batch), but only flew 2000 of them to the UK (and arrived). The remaining (3k? 2k) cases were to be sent by ship, didn't, in case you were going to move production, and then were recently sent by boat, and shouldn't be there yet.
Better yet, the current status page would disagree, and say that there are only 2000 there, minus the 700 or so you recently built/shipped.
Either way, I'm a bit unclear where your "currently 3000" is coming from, and a lot of your numbers in the past (see first chunk of this post) have been pretty misleading, so I'd really appreciate clarification.
Furthermore, I'm still pretty curious about the LCD half situation - why were so few built, when so much was to gain by building them earlier? A fair while ago more LCD cables were made, and so I would have thought the lids could be prebuilt. I also thought there were only 1000 or so cables that were still remaining, but I can't find the quote, so perhaps I'm misremembering. But they're simple parts from CC, right? What was their big holdup on them? It's not like they were waiting on the nubs...
Anyway, thanks for reading. I hope it was as enlightening as it was to write.
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