A further update on preorders (18th of November 2012)

[Yoyobuae]

Every pre-orderer will get his Pandora. It's a matter of time.

How much more time? That is the question.

What I picked up from Craig's statements and the info ED has provided is that the wait might end up being extended another 6 months or even 1 year. It all depends on how many Pandora sales ED can make in order to get the money for production.


And it also depends on which queue one is at, because it could be that 1GHz queue gets served last, which means that 1GHz upgraders will end receiving their Pandora's later than if they didnt upgrade. <_<


As for refund VS waiting, for OP its always better for their preorderers to keep waiting, as a preorder effectively functions as a zero interest loan which can be extended into infinity (well, until the preorderer decides to walk away)..

 

[Timstertoo]

Every pre-orderer will get his Pandora. It's a matter of time.

How much more time? That is the question.

What I picked up from Craig's statements and the info ED has provided is that the wait might end up being extended another 6 months or even 1 year. It all depends on how many Pandora sales ED can make in order to get the money for production.


And it also depends on which queue one is at, because it could be that 1GHz queue gets served last, which means that 1GHz upgraders will end receiving their Pandora's later than if they didnt upgrade. <_<


As for refund VS waiting, for OP its always better for their preorderers to keep waiting, as a preorder effectively functions as a zero interest loan which can be extended into infinity (well, until the preorderer decides to walk away)..

As long as ED sends Craig free units instead of sending the unit to the next pre order in line directly Craig will just sell that unit to someone else to get cash. Craig can't do anything else, he needs liquidity to keep the wolves at bay.


So the only solution for Craigs pre orders, like me, is if ED takes control of both queues. Until that we're hostage until we succumb to the constant bullying to upgrade for silly money.

 

[darkborn]

ED has been totally transparent with his remaining preorders.

Agree 100%. But, like it or not, he is INVOLVED in whole story.

That said, SCAM is the wrong word because there has been no FRAUD to speak of. People get their units even if they have to wait two years....

Sorry, SCAM sounds awfull, probably wrong word. But No master list for already 4 years? And check this:

Excellent guess, but remember a few pages ago ED said Craig's queue was about 800 in August, <...> Though I guess it's academic now. In the last few weeks all the queues seem to be going down so its only a matter of time.

Seems to me that there are even more kinds of truth... how about a little bit of education: youtu.be/WSkv_29Rncg (edit: intended for Mr. Craigix, not Godmil)

I can't really speak to the list of outstanding preorders, because I agree it's kind of ridiculous that after this many years, there's no master list.


I will, however, assure you that there is no scam and that you'll be in good shape if you upgrade. I just received the 1Ghz upgrade I made to Craig's shop. Admittedly, I've been waiting since June, but it did arrive. I've heard nothing but good things from those who switched shops and upgraded through ED. He's been good about promptly shipping product.


I was skeptical that the new machines and new cases would be any better than the rebirth-era Pandy I already had, but I have to say I'm converted. N64 and Playstation emulators both run a lot better, and while I haven't had any problems with the build quality of my older unit, the new ones feel much more solid, with no buckling or stress around the screen bezel, and smoother joints where the pieces meet. The screen hinge also does a better job of keeping the lid in whatever position you put it.


If you're on the fence about upgrading, go ahead. You won't regret it.

THANKS FOR THAT. I know it is not scam, but it is sado/masochistic and suicidal behaviour from Craigix, if you ask me.


He's lost in his PR sicko little games... iCP2 will make him back in saddle, I hope. Then, he will have only one problem to handle: himself...

So my guess is 367. A guess.


So I saw some posts implying that Craig took the 1 Ghz money to fund iCP2. I have no idea. But after thinking about it I thought maybe its a good thing. Craig needs to generate some revenue. If iCP2 does that and he can use some of the profits from that to move things forward in OP UK ... thats a good thing right ? I supported the iCP2 kickstarter ... even though I don't know where I can use the iCP2. I don't have a cell phone.


So I am #137 in the 1 Ghz queue ... with hopes of a xmas delivery fading quickly . Sooooo ... I did something crazy. I ordered another 1 Ghz from ithic.com. Its on its way. I don't know if I will ask for a refund on my original 1 Ghz order. I originally upgraded as I was told it would help the original pre-orderers. I have no idea what I will do with 2 pandoras though. Maybe I will convince myself that this is also what I do to help the situation. If I do convince myself of that ... this will be the limit of my expenditures for this project.

Thanks for your guess. Thanks for sharing this... and thank you for your support.


Lets say that there is 400 of us remaining as 1st pre-orderers... (even Godmil assume it is more) and lets presume that cost of unit is 500$.


It is 200K bucks. Sounds too much... but it is not. It is just question of trust: that if somebody spent your donation money to e.g. ICP2 project without asking/informing you... well, then it is toooo much, because he won't get enough money... no meter how much you earn from ICP2 sell... because you lost trust from supporters. youtu.be/WSkv_29Rncg Craigix, how about some honesty to your loyal supporters?


And there is no donation list as well. Btw I already donated money, there is no mention of that anywhere... Look at the Humble Indie Bundle... I spent 100+ $ and I'm not regret any... but I'm listed there, because everything is transparent. And we are talking about hundred thousands of happy customers / supporters, and millions of profit. (It is easier to handle software then any hardware, but... still millions, and project grows)

 

[EvilDragon]

Okay, this will probably be a lengthy post, but I hope I can be able to answer some questions and explain what's going on.


I will be as open as possible but I can't let you know any secrets about Craigs business.


First off, let's start with the past, last year August...


Back then, thanks to the catastrophic production at CC in Texas, nothing was left.


We had tons of defective PCBs from CC, no money left, half-paid parts (for the next 4000 units) and quite a number of preorders.


The number of preorders gave me back then for his company was 800. I had about 400 - 500 (don't remember exactly anymore), which added up to 1200 alltogether.


I created a business plan, exactly including all costs needed to move to Germany (including some additional potential costs as safety), and making a calculation of how many units we had to produce at what price to be able to fulfill all remaining preorders. All, not just mine, but Craigs as well.


As you can probably guess, pretty appropriate number of remaining preorders was crucial for this calculation.


I looked for investors with that plan and found them, production was moved to Germany, I paid the remaining costs for still needed parts, etc.


As Craig had quite a few refunds, I bought off the remaining parts he still owned and deducted that amount from the number of remaining preorders he had (which makes sens in my opinion).


The money for the parts were about 65,000 EUR, so it would be about 250 preorders (if a preorder is worth 260 EUR, which is more than a normal Batch 1 and a bit less than a Batch 2 preorder, so it should be a good average here)


So I assumed Craigs remaining preorders were about 550 - 600.


Craig got about 150 Pandoras from the profits we made, so the preorders should be down to about 400 - 450.


After that, the 1GHz preorders started. According to Craigs posts here, he got about 150 orders here. A rough guess would be 75 new ones (for 699 USD, at least 500 EUR per unit) and 75 for upgrades (500 USD, at least 360 EUR per unit), so that's a rough 65,000 EUR.


According to him, these 65,000 EUR had all been used up for refunds, so that would be another 250 preorders less, so we should be down to about 150 - 200 preorders left.


Of course, if he got 75 new orders he didn't have before, this would be 75 orders more, but as he got 70 units from me, this won't really change much.


However, I don't know the exact order number though. It might also be 130 new ones and 20 upgrades. But then again, that would add up to 72,000 EUR, so enough for about 280 preorder refunds (and 50 new orders, so it doesn't change much).


So yes, based on my estimations, it should be 150 - 200 preorders left.


Then there are the upgrades. So far, 125 of Craigs customers upgraded to the 1GHz unit (and either received it already or will receive it soon).


That would bring us down to 25 - 75 remaining preorders... but it doesn't seem that's the case, so my estimation seems to be wrong in some area, I just don't know where.


I remember I got a mail from Craig a while ago where he stated he had a lot more refunds because of customers returning Pandoras (broken or working state). But then again, I cannot imagine that this would be hundreds of units that came back in a totally unfixable state... otherwise, they could be refurbished and sold again.


Please note: This is all based on the one number I got in August (800), the money I paid to him to buy the parts off of him and the amount of 1GHz units he posted he sold here at the boards.


I don't have ANY other accurate numbers, so this the best I could do. But even if you take in account that he needs about 2000 EUR to keep his company going per month (don't know if that's his monthly costs, but it sounds okay to me), this would be about 120 units... so not THAT huge difference.


Well, what I can tell you for sure is that I got 150 preorders left (34 of those are Batch 1, the remaining ones Batch 2) with my company.


I just have not the slightest idea how many are really left with OpenPandora Ltd.


So much for the past, now onto the future...


As you know, production is running stable now, so no production issues anymore.


Right now, we're getting a failure rate of about 2%, which is pretty good.


I plan to produce and sell about 2000 more Pandoras and get back all funds the investors put in.


Of course, whatever may happen, I'll only be liable for my customers. But I still want to try to take car for Craigs customers as good as possible as well.


So what does this mean?


It means: I'll try to fulfill his remaining preorders as good as I can afford it and pay back refunds even in case his company goes bankrupt.


However, I can only do so when I can afford that, so you might not get a refund or your preorder right away. As I'm not liable for these preorders, you couldn't force me to refund you.


I plan to fulfill this with a mixture of donations, upgrades and new sales. And with sales from other items from my shop.


I will be as open as can be. You will always know where your money goes.


Here are some quick scenarios I just calculated:


Scenario 1:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 300


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 100


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 50


Donations received: 5,000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for current 1GHz price: 1074 Units


Scenario 2:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 300


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 0


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 0


Donations received: 0,000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for current 1GHz price: 1156 Units


Scenario 3:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 500


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 100


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 50


Donations received: 2,000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for current 1GHz price: 1080 Units


Scenario 4:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 300


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 200


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 100


Donations received: 10000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for current 1GHz price: 993 Units


As you can see, upgrades and donations sure help bringing the amount of newly needed units down.


But even if Craig has 500 left and no upgrades and donations would come in, it would be possible if I sell a bit over 1000 units for the current price. This might not be easy, but possible if we all help together.


Let's see how the scenario changes if I would offer the Pandora for a lower price:


Scenario 1:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 300


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 100


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 50


Donations received: 5,000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for a price of 450 EUR: 1334 Units


Scenario 2:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 300


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 0


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 0


Donations received: 0,000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for 450 EUR: 1436 Units


Scenario 3:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 500


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 100


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 50


Donations received: 2,000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for 450 EUR: 1341 Units (HOWEVER: With 650 preorders, only 1250 Pandoras would be left! This would not work out!)


Scenario 4:


Rem. Preorders from Craig: 300


Rem. Preorders from ED: 150


Upgrades to 1GHz from Craig: 200


Upgrades to 1GHz from ED: 100


Donations received: 10000 EUR


Number of units needed to be sold for 450 EUR: 1233 Units


The amount of donations and upgrades has an even bigger impact here!


(Please note: What's not included in these scenarios yet is that GC might be able to repair quite a few of the CC PCBs which can be sold as refurbished units, etc.) as well as other profit from my shop).


So what does that tell us?

• Getting about 1300 more sales will solve everything So help promote the Pandora whereever you can. Especially try to eliminate the myth that the Pandora is not available from stock (it is!)
  
• If you can afford it, please upgrade to the 1GHz unit. It really helps a lot to speed things up and get us out of this mess.
  
• A price reduction is certainly possible in the future, but this depends on donations, upgrades, sales and the remaining preorders from Craig (still an unknown number). So right now, if you can afford it: Please buy it. It really helps us
  
• Other profits from my shop help as well - so you are welcome to promote it as well.
  

I hope this clears things up a bit.


It's as much as I know and estimated. I'll try to do my best to help all of you get your Pandora.


I don't care about getting rich (heck, I'm happy if we can get out of the debts here), I just want that you all get your Pandora.


And I'll try to be as open as possible, as usual. Feel free to ask me more questions

 

[Timstertoo]

The only problem I see with your plan is that if you send the units to Craig instead of to the original pre order directly it gets sold to someone else and the money is gone.


I think if you lower the price you will get much more upgrades. Although I'm only sure of one So it'll lower the amount of Pandoras you need to sell to catch up drastically. 100 upgrades would be the same as 15k donation money.


Thanks for caring and taking responsiblity ED, it is appreciated.

 

[EvilDragon]

The only problem I see with your plan is that if you send the units to Craig instead of to the original pre order directly it gets sold to someone else and the money is gone.

Yes, that's what I'd love to do.

I think if you lower the price you will get much more upgrades. Although I'm only sure of one So it'll lower the amount of Pandoras you need to sell to catch up drastically. 100 upgrades would be the same as 15k donation money.

Yes, and it might happen at some time, however, it won't happen before there's enough cash on my account.


Don't forget: Right now, an upgrade happens for production cost price.


If I go lower and a lot of people upgrade, I won't have the money right now to be able to afford these.


Once enough units have been sold so that there's some profit on the account, this is possible though.


These scenarios will never happen anyways - the real case will be a mixture of all.


It might be 600 Pandoras are sold for a higher price and later ones for a lower one. It's just a quick overview to show what you can expect.

 

[Linux-SWAT]

I will bookmark this lengthy post, just in case someone asks... again.

 

[quartercast]

Thanks for being so open ED.

 

[ekianjo]

ED, thanks for the update but what prevents Craig to starting new campaigns to get pre-orders/upgrades and screwing up the situation even more ?


The fact that you mean to be liable for Craig's mistakes and lack of responsibility may be very generous, but is is made at the expense of the whole Pandora (current and future) users. It means it will keep the Pandora at high pricing for the foreseeable future, whereas what we need for the market to expand is a cheaper market price. And the gap is widening with other electronics on the market. Sure, the Pandora is unique and you can catter to these people who want exactly what a Pandora offers, but if we can reach a 300 dollars price-point for the 1Ghz you will see a much greater market for it.


And greater market will mean more developpers, more software and back into a virtuous cycle. The price is what keeps the Pandora market small at the moment. I know many people who like gadgets and who do not hesitate to spend 300 dollars here and there, but higher prices make them think twice, no matter how great the device is.


ANyway, even if the price decrease does not happen at once, it would be good to have it occur progressively. Better than nothing.

 

[EvilDragon]

Upgrades are handled directly via my shop, and as far as I know Craig doesn't want to take more preorders.


I'm pretty sure he'd be happy to have a happy ending here as well rather than an ongoing nightmare.

 

[centus]

Thanks for the update and honesty ED!


One thing I am confused about, why can't you pick up the phone and talk to Craig? why are you relying on information he's posted on these forums for your business plan?


I thought you two are supposed to be partners, it's one thing for Craig to hide information from us users, but from you???

 

[Link]

^


I would call it two companies collaborating on a project. A partnership is a totally different type of business relationship within the same company involving a pair of people.

 

[elwing]

That would bring us down to 25 - 75 remaining preorders... but it doesn't seem that's the case, so my estimation seems to be wrong in some area, I just don't know where.

The problem is that I don't trust theses numbers at all, if they were like that we'dd get told by craigx. I don't know what he try to hide, whether it's a huge failure rate, return, massive lies on the number but I'm really afraid about why he might want to hide the numbers...


he can't give us number? then how can he send mails to all remaining preorder? that's just BS...

 

[mcobit]

What makes me wonder is, why these calculations are still based on guessing the numbers from Craig.


Doesn't he keep track of his money or what is his problem with providing the guy who might save his ass here with real numbers?

 

[Scntrblob]

I wonder how it can be so difficult to find out the remaining preorders Craig has left unless you don't want them to be found out. If I were ED I would send anything to Craig until I received this info.

 

[double7]

Thanks for the update ED! Added the new facts to http://pandorawiki.o...imeline#2012.2B .


It's sad to see that Craigs information quality still have a lot of improvment potential. I'd like to see him counting and posting his actual queue size. I don't care if it doesn't match with past calculations, but i'd like to see progress and the light at the end of the tunnel coming closer to the remaining preorders based on facts.

 

[CapcomSuicide]

Kind words ED, and also respectful towards Craig.


It seems to me that it is almost cruel to keep customers waiting, when the finances of Craig's shop can't fufill the remaining orders.


Perhaps it is time to bite the bullet, declare the UK company bancrupt, and then see if the community can support ED with new orders and donations to assist Craig's customers, as per the desciptions above.


If I had any orders outstanding now, I believe I'd rather be told "I am really sorry the company failed & I can't deliver." rather than keeping hoping for a miracle that doesn't seem likely to happen.


There doesn't seem to be a happy ending unfortunatly, but with some customers waiting 4 years, it seems that an ending must come regardless.

 

[mcobit]

Kind words ED, and also respectful towards Craig.


It seems to me that it is almost cruel to keep customers waiting, when the finances of Craig's shop can't fufill the remaining orders.


Perhaps it is time to bite the bullet, declare the UK company bancrupt, and then see if the community can support ED with new orders and donations to assist Craig's customers, as per the desciptions above.


If I had any orders outstanding now, I believe I'd rather be told "I am really sorry the company failed & I can't deliver." rather than keeping hoping for a miracle that doesn't seem likely to happen.


There doesn't seem to be a happy ending unfortunatly, but with some customers waiting 4 years, it seems that an ending must come regardless.

Well, then the prorderers from craig would never see their money or a Pandora.


Also it could cause Craig trouble with his other company, if this one goes bankrupt. I am not sure if it is legal to get millions of dollars for another company when your original one is going bankrupt.

 

[ShleeDragon]

Those numbers are pretty impressive.. If you've got 150 batch units left, I've said it before - Get those suckers pushed out first!


Clear your slate right now and handle the Craig situation in a few months.


Getting your books straight is better for everybody than juggling.

 

[ElPoco]

That's really nice of you ED, the transparency is appreciated.