Discussion in 'Pandora News' started by EvilDragon, Feb 28, 2012.
I thought it was a ratio of 3 new orders to 1 preorder or suchlike...
Because most of those units have to be sold as new units.
This is based on the figures I was given by Ed last month. I only get a small number of units a month.
Didnt ed say something about 700 new new preorders? Over 9000!! pandoras before everyone else get there units. LoL.
Is I understand, there are only 80 Pandoras build and ready. More parts are prebuild, so it only needs to set in the mainboard and flash the firmware.
But as I understand, there are only asome needfull helpers left to build the Pandora. So you can expect that the production goes even slower the next weeks.
1000 should be possible, if GC does the full assemble after the first 1000 devices.
But if I'm right there are only 750 new preorderers, so it takes time to finish the first batch.
If there are not enough preorderers for the next 1000 devices ...
But let's think positive.
The cost of each Pandora is also now significantly higher than it was when we were using CC.
is there an action planned against cc to require them a compensation of what they make the openpandora team loose?
I presume the problem of delay starts with this, doesn't it?
Ughhhhh Does it mean that we need 6000 new preorders?
You all still have the option of going premium. The price for the "discounted" Pandora is waiting several months longer. In addition every premium order will help OpenPandora GmbH to get rid of the remaining burden.
I personally ordered a second Pandora for the full price to get it faster and this is helping to afford the production costs for yours as well
Last I heard from Ed, orders will be shipped 3 old preorders for every 4 new preorders/orders, so we'll need a fair chunk of new orders to ensure every old preorder gets shipped, and that will take time. Some of those new orders will be 'upgrades' from old preorderers though, so the numbers may work out fairly quickly - I can't tell since AFAIK no one yet knows the upgrade price versus the various original preorder costs.
Also, if you ordered via Craig I expect that may be a bottleneck as he's snowed under with iControlPad orders at the moment. Is that a fair statement Craig?
That's also what I remember and based my estimate of 10 weeks off of. Craig's 9 month estimate would require 15 new Pandoras for every 2 old pre-order, meaning you'd need to sell 9000 new orders. That's 1000 a month, with GC producing a minimum of 1133 every month. If they can only handle 1000 production, this is unsustainable and doomed to failure.
It's just to blackmail the original pre orderers into upgrading.
I'm starting to think that preordering early was a mistake. Well, I just hope I get my Pandora before I die away ^_^
Sounds like it. :wacko:
Not sure where these 9000 units come from...
My whole calculation has been created last year around August. Craig told me he got 800 preorders left back then, I had 500 left.
That's for Batch 1 AND Batch 2, so ALL outstanding preorders, so alltogether, it's 1200.
The business plan I created was based on the parts we already owned (i.e. Craig owned parts partially, so we could use those, I would buy the remaining ones, etc.).
There was also money to handle refunds. I didn't have many refunds, but Craig probably had quite a few ones, as I bought all the parts from him so he could pay the refunds.
Based on the money I sent him, it should be about 250 refunds, which would mean that the remaining outstanding orders should be about 950, if Craigs number outstanding preorders in August last year was correct (he mentioned a few days ago he got more now, but without having any exact numbers, I cannot foretell anything... I only know my exact number, and that's 473 for both Batch 1 and 2).
The calculation I made was based on the worst case:
Means: Nobody will upgrade (go to premium to get it faster or upgrade an old PCB to a new one), no units from CC can be recovered.
In this worst case, 620 of the first 1000 produced units will go to new preorders, the remaining ones will go to old preorders (about 950 - 970 units should be fully working with Batch 1), so about 330 - 350 are going to old preorders.
From the second 1000, about 670 need to go to new preorders (as I need to buy new cases, etc.), so 270 - 320 are going to old preorders.
With the third 1000, it's about 660, so another 280 - 330 are going to old preorders.
The full profit made with new preorders will be used to pay the production of the outstanding preorders.
If we really have about 950 outstanding orders, then we should have all delivered after the first 3000 units are produced.
As said: Craig mentioned a few days ago he got more, but I have no exact numbers and therefore cannot look into my magic ball.
Now, as said: That's my worst case scenario.
We will also offer upgrades for faster delivery as well as swap-upgrades (replace your old PCB against a new one for an upgrade price of about 150 EUR).
The money made from that will also go into that pot.
Every three upgrades (faster delivery) will add enough money into the pot to deliver another unit to an outstanding old preorder.
So if we have 99 upgrades, 33 more units can be delivered to old customers.
With the Swap-Upgrades, we'll have refurbished old Pandoras for sales (old fully working PCB in new case), which will be sold for a cheaper price (probably 300 EUR or something like that).
These also add into the big pot and will make it possible to deliver more units to outstanding customers.
And finally, there will be units from CC with faults. Like broken WiFi, broken USB, etc.
These will also be sold for a cheaper price (maybe around 250 EUR). And this full money ALSO adds into the pot.
We should have about 300 - 500 of those units in the end, so that would make it possible to send 300 - 440 outstanding preorders the units right away.
Craig told me he tries to sue as much money as possible out of CC as well.
And hopefully, he'll use that money as well for paying the units of outstanding preorders.
But that's out of my hands, that's depending on Craig
So, in worst case, we should be through with all old Batch 1 and Batch 2 preorders after about 3000 - 4000 units produced, and every money we get on top from the various possibilities mentioned above will make things go faster.
I hope that explanation shows why it's pretty much impossible to foretell the exact timeframe
And hopefully you all understand what I'm doing here.
Thanks ED for the detailed answer. I have also have one of the last Batch 1 preorders (end of Oct/09) so I probably have to wait a while. Well if the update price is not to high I probably will do that (if I can afford it). As a student I am always low on cash.
Okey how does the production go? Any updates?
Will post a summary most likely tonight.
EDs details just got me even more confused. He needs more money to get new ones. As a new preorderer (January 2012) I paid full prize "slot reservation". So my money is on the pot already, but doesn't that mean also, I receive my Pandora later, because ED need to sell Pandora's to people who haven't paid up yet, so he can afford next 1000 Pandoras?
Please correct me if I'm wrong, because now I'm really confused
Im sry to make you explain eveything in details. Im happy for your reply btw . Omg sry for my english :blink:
So that's a conservative 4 months. I knew there was something wrong with the 9 month estimate.
Assuming, of course, that GC can maintain about 1000 per month. The math also worked out perfectly when CC was in charge, and we all saw how that went down.
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