We Have Cases Folks


Arkay Firestar said:
Could we please, *please* stop trying to set expectations/make predictions for how things that are out of our (and to a significant extent, OP's) control?

Every one of these admirable but Ill-advised attempts to break down how many units can be made in a day/week and when the last of the first batch will be assembled assume that there will be absolutely no more unexpected delays or obstacles. Based on the project's development, that would be a tremendously unreasonable assumption.

Let's just take it one step at a time. 1000 cases have arrived. Let's see what Craig's video is like. Let's see what Mweston says next week after he works on a few boards. Let's see if the boards ship consistently and at the rate we've been told they would. Who knows how long the factory will need to make 9000 more cases.

I'm as excited as the next person here, and despite not having waiting as long as most of you, I too have been frustrated with all the setbacks. But I think the reality is that a lot of peoples' disappointment stems from premature, unrealistic expectations.

One step at a time. Part of me still wonders if I'm being scammed, but at this point, the easiest way for me to look at things is that the money is gone. In a few months, maybe I get this killer retro system I've been longing for, or maybe I don't. But all these ultra-specific debates, all these efforts to mark a day on the calendar of when we'll get our Pandoras, will only lead to discouragement if something doesn't go according to plan.
i wouldnt call what i posted an expectation, just a possible extrapolation of the information.

no one has expectations, for me it comes when it comes and that is always the case. this board is all about enthusiastic speculation and arguing and its pretty harmless. i am more than happy to be put wrong by anyone or the developers, its just a bit of fun :)
 
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Grench said:
EvilDragon said:
So with 40 Pandoras a day, 400 will be ready after two weeks.
As soon as we're faster with assembling, we can probably go up to 80 a day, which means 800 units in two weeks.

Yes, that's quite some time, but as soon as we start, it keeps rolling :)


DroneB Dev said:
hmm, it would be more like this in my simulation XD

1 400 400
2 600 1000
3 600 1600
4 600 2200
5 600 2800
6 600 3400
7 600 4000

Although I like your optimism, I think you missed the part of ED's post where he was working in units of 'Two Weeks' and not 'week'.

WHAT? thats the non optimist guideline,
basing on what ED said, they should be have an throughput of 1 pandora per minute (and again in line Steady flow).
so we could say they can nearly produce 1 panda per minute (steady flow).

lets be negative and say they do 8 hours rounds and each panda takes 4 min.
so it makes 120 pandoras per day. and therefore 600 per week (5 day week). (and the lord kept 6th day for shipping, 7th day was rest).

so it makes it 6 weeks and roughly 4 days. (no extra delays expected)


i did miss that quote of ED's but i believe it would be the first week(s) at that speed, you dont take that much to learn to do something repetitive).

but in the end if they are missing some parts it is all useless.
 
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RenegadeChic said:
Okay I’ll try to explain how I see it conservatively.

8 assemblers
10 hours days
1 hour lunch, 30 mins breaks
Total work time 8hr 30 mins 510 mins total per person.

Now , it takes 8 people 8 mins to make a Pandora in a chain.
That is 1 min per person before it is passed to the next.
Now that means that each person spends 1 minute of work on a section.

Now imagine that person 1 is screwing the boards into the case. It takes 1 min to do.
Now by the time person 8 gets hold of the hardware down the line, 7 other processes have happened over 7 minutes.
This means that by the time person 8 finishes their section, person 1 should have put together 8 (or 7, i’m getting lost in my own numbers a bit) of their bit of the line. The rate of Pandora production should really be 1 a minute after the first 8 minutes.

Now i actually think that this is unrealistic and that we would more likely get half of that i.e. one every 2 minutes or even one every 3 minutes.

With 510 working minutes in the day we would just have to divide how how quickly they pop out of the production line. If it is one a minute then that is 510 a day. If its one every 2 minutes it is 255 a day. If it is one every 3 minutes it is 170 pandora. Either way i think it is a much faster process than ED predicts at low estimates.

His estimate would presume that person 1 would not start on the next Pandora until person 8 was finished which would be silly.
Wow! I think you're overthinking it too much. When ED says it is 8 minutes then he actually means each person in the line takes no more than 8 minutes to complete their own part of the line.

I would assume once everyone in the processing line has gotten accustomed to their own job there would be plenty of work in progress Pandoras between each step of the production line. This being the case once a production line member completes his part of the job he would pick up one of the w.i.p. Pandoras previously finished by the previous production line member. At the end of the production line the final member of the team would be churning out the Pandoras at a max of 8 minute intervals (depending on if his part takes 8 minutes or the incoming Pandoras take 8 minutes).

Of course this is assuming that none of the steps take more than 8 minutes so that the final member always has a incoming flow of Pandoras and that all members are working concurrently on different Pandoras.
 
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LuvClub said:
Wow! I think you're overthinking it too much. When ED says it is 8 minutes then he actually means each person in the line takes no more than 8 minutes to complete their own part of the line.
nah thats definitely long. i am pretty sure MWeston made a 15 min assembly video for the pandora being very slow and methodical and repeating steps to show the team/assemblers and that was all of the 8 steps
 
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In line assembly is going to be much more faster and less prone to error,

Didn't you learn anything from FORD???

also, do you expect that Cx plugs up 8 soldering irons, eight pairs of screwdrivers and, 8 rolls of stickers??
 
RenegadeChic said:
LuvClub said:
Wow! I think you're overthinking it too much. When ED says it is 8 minutes then he actually means each person in the line takes no more than 8 minutes to complete their own part of the line.
nah thats definitely long. i am pretty sure MWeston made a 15 min assembly video for the pandora being very slow and methodical and repeating steps to show the team/assemblers and that was all of the 8 steps

OK I understand your reasonings. ED must have been very conservative in his estimate when he said even at their slowest they would still do 4 an hour at 15 minutes each! :)
 
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RenegadeChic said:
LuvClub said:
Wow! I think you're overthinking it too much. When ED says it is 8 minutes then he actually means each person in the line takes no more than 8 minutes to complete their own part of the line.
nah thats definitely long. i am pretty sure MWeston made a 15 min assembly video for the pandora being very slow and methodical and repeating steps to show the team/assemblers and that was all of the 8 steps
yeah, 8 minutes per person means it would take about 64 minutes for a single person to complete a Pandora. I'm not buying that for a second. I've got way more respect for the team's abilities than that.
Since MWeston has shown that a single person can do it in 15 minutes, you'd almost be better off scrapping the assembly line and just having everyone build complete Pandoras.
 
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WizardStan said:
yeah, 8 minutes per person means it would take about 64 minutes for a single person to complete a Pandora. I'm not buying that for a second. I've got way more respect for the team's abilities than that.
Since MWeston has shown that a single person can do it in 15 minutes, you'd almost be better off scrapping the assembly line and just having everyone build complete Pandoras.
I suspect what EvilDragon meant was it takes 8 mins for a Pandora to go from the start of the line to the end.
Which assuming the workloads were balanced would mean 1 Pandora every minute.
However it's likely there will be a section which takes longer than the others.

I have no idea if this is accurate, but it seems a lot more believable than 8 people taking 8mins per Pandora.
 
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Just wondering who these 8 bodies are that will do the production untill all are shipped ? Don't Craig Ed and MWeston have day jobs ? and who will fill in for them ,i sware to you guys i could do 100 Pandora units a day all by self ,i am really that fast on a production line ,the flashing part is the only bit that holds things up but you do them in tandum so there are always at least 4 units being flashed at the same time ,this number can go up or down depending on your own rate of unit build time.

I really wish i could be down there helping as i want you all to have your pandora asap ,i just can't do it becase of family commitments.
 
Vorporeal said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipelining

Hopefully the production doesn't suffer from too many branch mispredictions or cache misses.
Dude, I totally called that joke 4 months ago
 
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If one person building a pandora can be done in 8-16 minutes then 8 people each building a pandora start to finish should be 8-16 minutes each for 8 units. sounds logical but something is wrong there if they only expect to send out 16 on the first day.

Instead of trying to tighten up the production pipeline to how long each screw takes to be tightened cant we just aim for a quota of how many can be done in a day instead? if the first day they expect 16 then aim for at least 20 a day by the end of the week if more are done by then up the expectation to what ever the max number was. That's the only real way we'll know how many are coming out of the hall fr the next 2 or 3 weeks.

And beyond the first 1000 nothing cant really be planned because no one knows if the case factory will even be on time with the next batch of cases.
 
Aninhumer said:
This video has been removed by the user.
:huh:

Ahh. I just refreshed and it was gone.

"There was a comment that he was going to try reuploading, as it seemed to have hung."
I didn't catch the comment. Here's hoping its up soon.
 
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