We Have Cases Folks

[rmm2131]

Great news. I just hope it doesn't take more than two months for all of the next 3000 Pandoras to be assembled and sent off. Well, one can hope.

It's good news Craig has the first 1000 cases in hand. The other side of the coin is that realistically it will take much longer than two months to get the other 3000 into shipping boxes. If they finally begin next Wednesday and make 16 Pandoras a day at least than the minimal of 112/week(7 days per) will have the last in line first batcher receiving a shipped notice in early fall given an optimistic 500-700/month. These by their complexity won't be pumped out quick. Sorry.

I doubt we only make 16 Pandoras a day.
With eight persons on the line, one Pandora will approximately take 8 minutes to assemble. Flashing them takes about as long, but you only need to switch them on and wait (so this can be done while the next ones are being assembled).

We will be slower at the beginning, but even if we need 15 minutes per Pandora and would be doing that 10 hours a day, we'd spit out 40 Pandoras each day (might be a few less or a few more, but it that's a lot more than 16).

So with 40 Pandoras a day, 400 will be ready after two weeks.
As soon as we're faster with assembling, we can probably go up to 80 a day, which means 800 units in two weeks.

Yes, that's quite some time, but as soon as we start, it keeps rolling

Thank you for the reply ED. A lot of us were in the dark about what would happen. So more than the 16 completed on the first day that Craig mentioned:

We're hoping we can send out 16 on the first day.

Welcome news especially for those later in the queue.

 

[Khan]

Really nice turn of events for a change, indeed. Finally, a bit of light at the end of the tunnel

But I´m still skeptic with Katla...just keep a steady flow of sacrificial virgins to appease his wrath and have someone watching over that Murphy sneaky bastard >_<

PD: BTW Evildragon, check your email, please

 

[cobaltage]

But I´m still skeptic with Katla...just keep a steady flow of sacrificial virgins to appease his wrath ...

KAAAAAHHHHN!

 

[MonkeyChops]

40 a day? damn my hesitation in ordering. Could have saved a week of waiting by ordering 10 min earlier.

Congrats to the team for reaching this huge milestone!

Bring on the pics/vids/live cam!

 

[VRAndy]

I built a MP Pandora and all went well. This should be an interesting week to come

Well slap that thing in a mailbox! Who's pre-order #1?

 

[socket]

Wow, I ordered within the first minute and am around 250. 40 a day isn't so bad... I still can't wait.

 

[Vorporeal]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipelining

Hopefully the production doesn't suffer from too many branch mispredictions or cache misses.

 

[renegadechic]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipelining

Hopefully the production doesn't suffer from too many branch mispredictions or cache misses.

:lol:

 

[Dead1nside]

I'd rather OP, and ED be honest and pessimistic about assembly times rather than over optimistic. I thank you for your candour. None of us want to wait any longer than we have to, but it looks to now just be the process of assembly... well that's one obstacle I certainly don't mind waiting for. Besides, we don't know how long the population of boards and manufacture of cases will take, if they'll be in one lot, or whether they'll be in multiple shipments. What matters is a steady rate of assembly, and by the looks of it that'll happen bar any delays on parts for those > 1000 in the queue.

 

[droneb]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pipelining

Hopefully the production doesn't suffer from too many branch mispredictions or cache misses.

XD good one, but hmm

i believe they are free from the first or at least they will learn it fast,
but they might suffer MEM faults and have to wait.

 

[multiplex]

I doubt we only make 16 Pandoras a day.
With eight persons on the line, one Pandora will approximately take 8 minutes to assemble.

i dont think this is quite right. if there is 8 people in the line and a pandora takes 8 minutes then each section is 1 minute in its completion (roughly).

Ah, but it's eight people *on* the line. So that's the time you'll get if you round up eight people and tell Craig "Assemble me a Pandora or the hostages get it!"
Or possibly how fast eight people can do it when instructed by MWeston over the phone. Why are the posts from the OP team always so cryptic? :huh:

 

[Grench]

Not trying to be negative, just trying to figure out about when I should expect to see mine.

Using ED's conservative estimates above and assuming that production continues at his final state rate.

Week Count Cumulative Pandoras Out
1 200 200
2 200 400
3 400 800
4 400 1200
5 400 1600
6 400 2000
7 400 2400
8 400 2800
9 400 3200
10 400 3600
11 400 4000

So, I ordered a week into the pre-order process which, if I understand it right, puts me in the 2500 range. Given the estimates above, my rough estimated time to delivery from when production starts is...

Two Months.

 

[droneb]

hmm, it would be more like this in my simulation XD

1 400 400
2 600 1000
3 600 1600
4 600 2200
5 600 2800
6 600 3400
7 600 4000

 

[Gandi]

Given the estimates above, my rough estimated time to delivery from when production starts is...

Two Months.

It looks more and more like "2 Months" is a universal constant in this project - very much like the speed of light in physics. :huh:
But don't be discouraged - maybe your andora2ut4: will finally arrive throgh some wormhole in the space-manufacturing-continuum as soon as as Craig found out how to create one. :lol:

 

[juniorm33]

Given the estimates above, my rough estimated time to delivery from when production starts is...

Two Months.

It looks more and more like "2 Months" is a universal constant in this project - very much like the speed of light in physics. :huh:
But don't be discouraged - maybe your andora2ut4: will finally arrive throgh some wormhole in the space-manufacturing-continuum as soon as as Craig found out how to create one. :lol:

Overclocked Pandora? :lol:

 

[renegadechic]

Okay I’ll try to explain how I see it conservatively.

8 assemblers
10 hours days
1 hour lunch, 30 mins breaks
Total work time 8hr 30 mins 510 mins total per person.

Now , it takes 8 people 8 mins to make a Pandora in a chain.
That is 1 min per person before it is passed to the next.
Now that means that each person spends 1 minute of work on a section.

Now imagine that person 1 is screwing the boards into the case. It takes 1 min to do.
Now by the time person 8 gets hold of the hardware down the line, 7 other processes have happened over 7 minutes.
This means that by the time person 8 finishes their section, person 1 should have put together 8 (or 7, i’m getting lost in my own numbers a bit) of their bit of the line. The rate of Pandora production should really be 1 a minute after the first 8 minutes.

Now i actually think that this is unrealistic and that we would more likely get half of that i.e. one every 2 minutes or even one every 3 minutes.

With 510 working minutes in the day we would just have to divide how how quickly they pop out of the production line. If it is one a minute then that is 510 a day. If its one every 2 minutes it is 255 a day. If it is one every 3 minutes it is 170 pandora. Either way i think it is a much faster process than ED predicts at low estimates.

His estimate would presume that person 1 would not start on the next Pandora until person 8 was finished which would be silly.

 

[droneb]

already did that math and still, even with a flow of a panda per 4 min, 8 hours a day(in line steadyflow) you get about 600 a week.

so i dont get why people are so pessimistic, if the initial prediction said 800 per week.

 

[Grench]

So with 40 Pandoras a day, 400 will be ready after two weeks.
As soon as we're faster with assembling, we can probably go up to 80 a day, which means 800 units in two weeks.

Yes, that's quite some time, but as soon as we start, it keeps rolling

hmm, it would be more like this in my simulation XD

1 400 400
2 600 1000
3 600 1600
4 600 2200
5 600 2800
6 600 3400
7 600 4000

Although I like your optimism, I think you missed the part of ED's post where he was working in units of 'Two Weeks' and not 'week'.

 

[Arkay Firestar]

Okay I’ll try to explain how I see it conservatively.

8 assemblers
10 hours days
1 hour lunch, 30 mins breaks
Total work time 8hr 30 mins 510 mins total per person.

Now , it takes 8 people 8 mins to make a Pandora in a chain.
That is 1 min per person before it is passed to the next.
Now that means that each person spends 1 minute of work on a section.

Now imagine that person 1 is screwing the boards into the case. It takes 1 min to do.
Now by the time person 8 gets hold of the hardware down the line, 7 other processes have happened over 7 minutes.
This means that by the time person 8 finishes their section, person 1 should have put together 8 (or 7, i’m getting lost in my own numbers a bit) of their bit of the line. The rate of Pandora production should really be 1 a minute after the first 8 minutes.

Now i actually think that this is unrealistic and that we would more likely get half of that i.e. one every 2 minutes or even one every 3 minutes.

With 510 working minutes in the day we would just have to divide how how quickly they pop out of the production line. If it is one a minute then that is 510 a day. If its one every 2 minutes it is 255 a day. If it is one every 3 minutes it is 170 pandora. Either way i think it is a much faster process than ED predicts at low estimates.

His estimate would presume that person 1 would not start on the next Pandora until person 8 was finished which would be silly.

Could we please, *please* stop trying to set expectations/make predictions for how things that are out of our (and to a significant extent, OP's) control?

Every one of these admirable but Ill-advised attempts to break down how many units can be made in a day/week and when the last of the first batch will be assembled assume that there will be absolutely no more unexpected delays or obstacles. Based on the project's development, that would be a tremendously unreasonable assumption.

Let's just take it one step at a time. 1000 cases have arrived. Let's see what Craig's video is like. Let's see what Mweston says next week after he works on a few boards. Let's see if the boards ship consistently and at the rate we've been told they would. Who knows how long the factory will need to make 9000 more cases.

I'm as excited as the next person here, and despite not having waiting as long as most of you, I too have been frustrated with all the setbacks. But I think the reality is that a lot of peoples' disappointment stems from premature, unrealistic expectations.

One step at a time. Part of me still wonders if I'm being scammed, but at this point, the easiest way for me to look at things is that the money is gone. In a few months, maybe I get this killer retro system I've been longing for, or maybe I don't. But all these ultra-specific debates, all these efforts to mark a day on the calendar of when we'll get our Pandoras, will only lead to discouragement if something doesn't go according to plan.

 

[Mithrildor]

5 days a week? I thought it was gonna be 6 days a week

And I think ED keeps the numbers a day real low for now so the community wont be mad if it will be less then he said it would be (like ED says 300 units day and it will be 160)