2 Months..... umm, weeks to go (2012-02-06)

[jkt]

Hmmm, interesting proposition. ED why don't you send an email out saying:

Sorry, due to increasing manufacturing costs we can no longer honour Pandora units purchased at 299 EUR. The current production Pandora is of better quality and specifications than the old model[...]
Thanks again for your patience, this has been a tough journey, etc... etc...

I would respect that honesty. And you'd keep my business. I would want to keep my place in the queue, however.

 

[ensoniq2k]

I hope everything will work the way it was planned. I rather ordered a second pandora than paying a premium. The extra one will be a gift to my girlfriend. She loves to steal all my game consoles and play with them all day long.

 

[zlice0]

ok - we've read the complaints - ED has responded to some...but HONESTLY


first off - we are still waiting and understand the hic-ups and issues the pandora has had to deal with (or we would not be here). we understand the 'premium' boost...


HOWEVER


giving other people a jump to the front of the line, after the initial investors waited and pre-paid so long, is just a risky idea.


what if those people (even 1/2? 1/3?) said, "i want my money back! screw this!"? Like I said - we all know the problems pandora has had to deal with. But pushing those who have waited so long, and are not getting much in the way of compensation is frustrating.


really it feels like being an original buyer is not appreciated...

Sorry, due to increasing manufacturing costs we can no longer honour Pandora units purchased at 299 EUR. The current production Pandora is of better quality and specifications than the old model[...]
Thanks again for your patience, this has been a tough journey, etc... etc...

that is not a good 'business' statement...that would make me feel like less appreciated...


hate to be sour - but people jumping ahead - merely for the fact they bought after me...is really like being kicked when i'm down

 

[ivanovic]

Well Craig's shop has the majority of the pre-orders not ED.

And still ED is responsible for making sure that each of Craigs customers get their Pandora. Craig basically backed out of this. The basic position Craig has at the moment is that of a "reseller" (so to say), though I have no idea how Craig and ED handle the money stuff internally. Basically the hardware production now is completely EDs job without any/much say from Craig.


@quartercast:


Yes, in theory your approach would be valid and possible, but I think ED is too fair for this. People ordered their device back then for the (really cheap) price advertised and now ED wants to keep his word and deliver for this price. That is once upon the time (with the initial increase of the price from 249€ incl Vat to 299€ incl Vat) ED said that those old customers of course will get their Pandora for the price which was paid.


Besides ED always stated that he tries to be fair to everybody, especially those already supporting the project for this long. The "unfair" solution would have been to just declare himself bankrupt and cancel the whole project. Those who already have a pandora could count them lucky, for all others it would be a case of "lots of money lost". Now ED looked for investors to *lend* him money so that he could do a production run where it is most likely to work out successfully. A sideeffect of this is that it is no longer possible to deliver in the strict order in which the order arrived. So the fact for all preorders is: either this way or no Pandora and possibly no money back.


Here ED decided to go for the "almost as fair" solution to say "we have to gather the money to continue producing so that everyone can get their device" and offers you to pay some extra money to jump the queue. The plan is even not to charge the full difference but just some minimum value and you are free to give more. Though I'd (personally) prefer the "reduced amount for upgrade" version and asking for additional donations to support general speeding up.

ED said:

What bank will make you 150 EUR profit within 2,5 years out of 300 EUR you put in?


That would be an amazing interes rate.

Which is only valid if the pre-order is an investment where I can realise that 150 EUR profit. I can't. It's an invalid argument based on false premise.

Hmm, you'll get a device delivered which is worth 450€ at the shop. You paid 300€. Sounds like a 150€ "profit" for me.

You're justifying, again, the bad financial planning. If the PCB production costs more than you're charging for the units, then why price them at that level to begin with?

As said at least more then 30 times over the last years, they simply didn't expect to run into that much trouble

So we are to be punished for that lack of foresight and planning?

You are "punished" for what seems to be complete incompetence at an (ISO certified!) board production company in Texas. Without previous experience in producing a device, where should the knowledge not to make the mistakes, come from?

 

[moxie]

You're justifying, again, the bad financial planning. If the PCB production costs more than you're charging for the units, then why price them at that level to begin with?

As said at least more then 30 times over the last years, they simply didn't expect to run into that much trouble

So we are to be punished for that lack of foresight and planning?

No. Despite that lack of foresight and planning, you still have a fair chance of actually getting your pandora. That is perseverance, not punishment. A lot of other companies, some rather large and well-reputed, also didn't expect to run into that much trouble, and folded. Possibly the actual waiting is punishing


And if you worry about the sustainability of the business model, I think you could read up on the discussions from half a year ago or so when the idea of investors, OP-style, were discussed. It is not all reproduced here. There are percentages there, and a model for how many pandoras needs to get sold in order to settle all orders and nullify the deficits.

 

[EvilDragon]

With respect, your utter lack of financial planning on this project is not our problem. I ordered my Pandora in June 2009; that's nearly three years ago. I paid my money at the time and I have been waiting since.

So what kind of lack of financial planning was it that the main PCB manufacturer just killed about 300,000 EUR?

That would come under 'operational risk', and financial management / costing of that potential should have been factored into the original pricing structure. Relying on a single provider for all your PCB requirements needlessly added in a single point of failure into the supply chain, and made you powerless to whim; which stung you. Now the whole production has moved to Germany, again to a single provider... Anyone else see a repeat happening in the future?

So, if you want to buy a car from your local dealer for 10,000 USD, you add another 30,000 USD just to be sure you can get a new one in case the car won't work?


The only reason people usually go to different companies for a production is if the current one can't deliver as many as you need.

You're right, no bank would give me that kind of profit on that investment over that time period. But for the comparison to be valid, if I cancel my order, you'll need to refund 450 EUR to my account. Will you do that? If so, please cancel my order. If not, change the reasoning, it's invalid.

Why should you get a higher refund than you paid?


You had the chance to get a refund anytime and we never said you will get interest for your money...

So your solution was...?


Giving up on the whole thing, go for insolvency and neither send these loyal customers a refund OR a Pandora?

It sounds like you're running a pyramid scheme where the original investors will only get their money (or pandora) as long as new customers come in. As soon as new custom stops (which I predict it will, given the technology is now 3 years old and the device costs multiples of things like the far-higher spec'd 3DS (which, with an R4 you can play homebrew on)), no-one gets anything new; company goes bust.

Where's the pyramid in there?


If a device doesn't sell, investors will always lose their money. That's the risk investors have to take.


They check the business plan and decide on that whether they want to take the risk or not.


The 3DS is not higher spec'd by the way. It's way slower.

I know I'm giving you a hard time here (it's borne entirely out of frustration) but what are the plans to rectify this deficit? Sure, you've got investors, but as you rightly say in another post, eventually they'll want their money back; then you're in exactly the same hole again.

There was a business plan that all interested investors got. They know what they invested their money in.

Don't forget: You're not the only loyal customers.


There are about 1000.


The actual PCB production costs more than most of you paid for the full unit.

You're justifying, again, the bad financial planning. If the PCB production costs more than you're charging for the units, then why price them at that level to begin with?

The original PCB production company did cost less, but as we all found out, they scrapped 1000 out of 4000 PCBs.


The original order price was based on their calculation, not the current one in Germany.

If that price is no longer financially viable, cancel the old orders - explaining honestly what's happened and why it's happened - and hope people reorder. I can't speak for others, but I would certainly respect that sort of transparency above how it's been managed so far.

Errm, that would even be worse.


Right now, every old preorderer has the possibility to...


1) get a refund


2) pay an upgrade price to get the unit faster


3) wait a bit longer and get the unit for the old price he paid.


You're suggesting to keep only possibilty 1) and 2) and leave out 3)


However, I want to thank the people who were supporting us for that long time and give them their unit without having to pay more money.


It's the only thing I can do right now, to keep everything properly going.

What's the real (actual) cost difference between what I've paid for the Pandora (via Craig's company - it was costed at 250 GBP at the time) and what it's costing you (materials/production/time)?

The production of one Pandora cost about 250 EUR (just assembly and parts).


Not included is my time, office rent, tax counsellor, etc.

You're justifying, again, the bad financial planning. If the PCB production costs more than you're charging for the units, then why price them at that level to begin with? If that price is no longer financially viable, cancel the old orders - explaining honestly what's happened and why it's happened - and hope people reorder. I can't speak for others, but I would certainly respect that sort of transparency above how it's been managed so far.

Hmmm, interesting proposition. ED why don't you send an email out saying:

Sorry, due to increasing manufacturing costs we can no longer honour Pandora units purchased at 299 EUR. The current production Pandora is of better quality and specifications than the old model, and is now valued at 445 EUR. To thank you for your loyalty and patience, we will give you a 10% discount off the current retail price, meaning we are able to offer you a current generation Pandora for 400 EUR.

Well, simply because I know we have a lot of different customers.


There are students who saved a long time to get that money, so they can't afford the upgrade.


Nevertheless, they kept their faith in us.


And there are customers who have enough money to easily pay for the upgrade.


I don't want to kick into the students ass and tell them that they will only get their money back and nothing else.

I guess a lot of us are surprised and angered by the latested installment of delays.

Nothing is new here.


It has been explained back in September 2011, when I was setting everything up.


And I know we've discussed a couple of times about this already, this was never hidden, I was always open and honest here.

Why didn't you tell us original pre-orderers that we would be last in the queue - originally, when you setup your new business plan a few months ago?

I did.

 

[zlice0]

Hmm, you'll get a device delivered which is worth 450€ at the shop. You paid 300€. Sounds like a 150€ "profit" for me.

No that's not a 'profit'.


1. We had to wait 3 years...


2. The RAM is the only 'upgrade' I heard of (let me know if I am wrong, but they don't have the lower amount anymore)

 

[ivanovic]

Hmm, you'll get a device delivered which is worth 450€ at the shop. You paid 300€. Sounds like a 150€ "profit" for me.

No that's not a 'profit'.


1. We to wait 3 years...


2. The RAM is the only 'upgrade' I heard of (let me know if I am wrong, but they don't have the lower amount anymore)

Then cancel if you are not interested. Simple as that. Yes, you do save money since with the old price since ED DOES LOSE MONEY (compared to the costs he has for creating the device) with not charging you extra. If ED created the Pandora this day, that is the price he would have to charge. You pay significantly less (1/3 less sounds like a great difference to me!). ED already outlined the options you have, it is as simple as that.

 

[quartercast]

I would respect that honesty. And you'd keep my business. I would want to keep my place in the queue, however.

Sure you would keep your place in the queue, that's what the deposit is for. But to keep your place, you'd need to pay the difference. There would be no premium orders, any new orders would be pushed to the back of the queue.


The production run hasn't started yet so ED has time to do this.

Sorry, due to increasing manufacturing costs we can no longer honour Pandora units purchased at 299 EUR. The current production Pandora is of better quality and specifications than the old model[...]
Thanks again for your patience, this has been a tough journey, etc... etc...

that is not a good 'business' statement...that would make me feel like less appreciated...

That was not my whole post, check the original here. And read the above.

@quartercast:


Yes, in theory your approach would be valid and possible, but I think ED is too fair for this. People ordered their device back then for the (really cheap) price advertised and now ED wants to keep his word and deliver for this price. That is once upon the time (with the initial increase of the price from 249€ incl Vat to 299€ incl Vat) ED said that those old customers of course will get their Pandora for the price which was paid.

I think my approach is fair - there would be no premium orders, the queue would remain intact. New orders would get appended to the back of the queue. Old orders get an updated Pandora for 10% less than new orders.


Edit: most importantly, ED gets the funding he needs to continue building while giving an honest, bold offer to his customers.

 

[jkt]

And if you worry about the sustainability of the business model, I think you could read up on the discussions from half a year ago or so when the idea of investors, OP-style, were discussed. It is not all reproduced here. There are percentages there, and a model for how many pandoras needs to get sold in order to settle all orders and nullify the deficits.

I considered investing, so I read the posts on the business model. From a business investment perspective it's not possible to rationalise allocating funds - even for a promising project - when repeated bad management decisions have been made.

 

[TrashyMG]

Well Craig's shop has the majority of the pre-orders not ED.

And still ED is responsible for making sure that each of Craigs customers get their Pandora. Craig basically backed out of this. The basic position Craig has at the moment is that of a "reseller" (so to say), though I have no idea how Craig and ED handle the money stuff internally. Basically the hardware production now is completely EDs job without any/much say from Craig.

I was responding to the suggestion that ED send notes to people who pre-ordered to cough up more money.. I just said Craig had the majority of the pre-orders because why would ED send notes to Craig's customers on paying up more money?

 

[zlice0]

Hmm, you'll get a device delivered which is worth 450€ at the shop. You paid 300€. Sounds like a 150€ "profit" for me.

No that's not a 'profit'.


1. We to wait 3 years...


2. The RAM is the only 'upgrade' I heard of (let me know if I am wrong, but they don't have the lower amount anymore)

Then cancel if you are not interested. Simple as that. Yes, you do save money since with the old price since ED DOES LOSE MONEY (compared to the costs he has for creating the device) with not charging you extra. If ED created the Pandora this day, that is the price he would have to charge. You pay significantly less (1/3 less sounds like a great difference to me!). ED already outlined the options you have, it is as simple as that.

Everyone should be aware of that...


But I still don't see a "profit" on my end. Like I said - 3 years

 

[EvilDragon]

And if you worry about the sustainability of the business model, I think you could read up on the discussions from half a year ago or so when the idea of investors, OP-style, were discussed. It is not all reproduced here. There are percentages there, and a model for how many pandoras needs to get sold in order to settle all orders and nullify the deficits.

I considered investing, so I read the posts on the business model. From a business investment perspective it's not possible to rationalise allocating funds - even for a promising project - when repeated bad management decisions have been made.

If you requested and got a business plan from me, you would know pretty detailed what the plans were.


Nothing has changed since that plan has been created and everything still works as planned.


How many bad management decisions have you seen from me or my company (OpenPandora GmbH) so far and what would you have made better?

 

[zlice0]

That was not my whole post, check the original here. And read the above.

I know - I was referring to a certain part. But like ED said - that would be a low blow...


(because I post rarely on here, and I've said it before - the pandora team has done well and I respect them. - But being shafted again just sucks...original buyers really aren't getting much out of this anymore)

 

[quartercast]

^ ED, you missed my suggestion. I put it in a quote box and everything


Oops no you didn't!

Well, simply because I know we have a lot of different customers.
There are students who saved a long time to get that money, so they can't afford the upgrade.


Nevertheless, they kept their faith in us.


And there are customers who have enough money to easily pay for the upgrade.


I don't want to kick into the students ass and tell them that they will only get their money back and nothing else.

Well, at least they do get their money back! If you want to include something else, by all means do so. You can even give them a 40EUR coupon towards a Pandora in the future. It's all possible.

 

[thatgui]

I'd be interested to see the evidence behind both of those statements.

First:


Producing complex electronics isn't something that can be pulled out of the hat. There are long leadtimes where the assembly line has to be adjusted to the special requirements of the certain product. This costs time and money, so you have to take that into account when splitting your production order.


Second:


Massproduction usually cuts down costs, as parts can be ordered in bigger quantities which lowers the price per unit, production lines can be kept for longer periods which saves the manufacturer time and money (as mentiod above) which (in part) is given back to the customer (who ordered the production of the device), to become more attractive (in terms of competiton between contract manufactureses) etc.


Real World examples:


Prices of various electonic prdocuts rising after the icidents in Japan last year. Sure the affected companies didn't rely on just one company, but they also don't have a lot on their hands. And we are talking about major companies that have millions available if needed. In medium sized business, companys usually don't have that money to be competitive on the market, so they rely on one. And were talking here about a 4 men company, where did you expect the money would come from to accomplish something like that - just from the preorder money ?


Or take apple, major company, but if Foxconn would go down apple product prices would skyrocket, as it would take months before another contract manufacturer continue production.

The decision on placing a pre-order was on the (now seemingly incorrect) assumption there would be a FIFO in place. Perhaps that question should have been made to begin with - 'if I place my order today, will I receive it before others who place 'pre-orders' in three years time?'. But should we really have to do that kind of ass covering on a community supported project?

true, but there was always a risk involved, and they did not hide that fact

Which is only valid if the pre-order is an investment where I can realise that 150 EUR profit. I can't. It's an invalid argument based on false premise.

no, he just evolved your analogon

So we are to be punished for that lack of foresight and planning?

No, you are punished because you took the risk, to give money to some guys you didn't really knew, and that had no expertise and what they were trying to accomplish

 

[jkt]

So, if you want to buy a car from your local dealer for 10,000 USD, you add another 30,000 USD just to be sure you can get a new one in case the car won't work?


The only reason people usually go to different companies for a production is if the current one can't deliver as many as you need.

No, but if I go to a local car dealer and give them the cash up front for a 'pre-order', I don't expect to wait 3 years to find out I've been screwed in favour of people who have shinier (more recent) money.

You're right, no bank would give me that kind of profit on that investment over that time period. But for the comparison to be valid, if I cancel my order, you'll need to refund 450 EUR to my account. Will you do that? If so, please cancel my order. If not, change the reasoning, it's invalid.

Why should you get a higher refund than you paid?


You had the chance to get a refund anytime and we never said you will get interest for your money...

Because you've tried comparing the 'investment' with that I'd get at a bank when I commented that I had many uses for 250 GBP over the past three years.

It sounds like you're running a pyramid scheme where the original investors will only get their money (or pandora) as long as new customers come in. As soon as new custom stops (which I predict it will, given the technology is now 3 years old and the device costs multiples of things like the far-higher spec'd 3DS (which, with an R4 you can play homebrew on)), no-one gets anything new; company goes bust.

Where's the pyramid in there?


If a device doesn't sell, investors will always lose their money. That's the risk investors have to take.


They check the business plan and decide on that whether they want to take the risk or not.

My bad, not 'pyramid', just 'unsustainable'.

The 3DS is not higher spec'd by the way. It's way slower.

Maybe it's slower, but it has pretty awesome 3D, some excellent games and (most importantly), it was in my hand within months of announcement, and on the day of release. Can I put a price on that? Yeah, 179 GBP, last April.

What's the real (actual) cost difference between what I've paid for the Pandora (via Craig's company - it was costed at 250 GBP at the time) and what it's costing you (materials/production/time)?

The production of one Pandora cost about 250 EUR (just assembly and parts).


Not included is my time, office rent, tax counsellor, etc.

That doesn't answer my question:


What's the real (actual) cost difference between what I've paid for the Pandora and what it's costing you (materials/production/time) - per unit?


Factor in all the above (the value of your time, office rent, tax) and a little extra for the war-chest and *that* is the price you need to be selling at.


What is that price?

 

[jkt]

How many bad management decisions have you seen from me or my company (OpenPandora GmbH) so far and what would you have made better?

* Totally reliant on a single manufacturer for the boards.


* Upsetting the original customers of your product, before it's even in their hands


* Pricing the unit at below cost, when you're not in a position to fund a 'loss-leader'


That's just from reading the boards today.


I've already commented on how I'd resolve the last two. For the first, I'd probably have looked at VC in order to ensure viability of the board production.

 

[moxie]

And if you worry about the sustainability of the business model, I think you could read up on the discussions from half a year ago or so when the idea of investors, OP-style, were discussed. It is not all reproduced here. There are percentages there, and a model for how many pandoras needs to get sold in order to settle all orders and nullify the deficits.

I considered investing, so I read the posts on the business model. From a business investment perspective it's not possible to rationalise allocating funds - even for a promising project - when repeated bad management decisions have been made.

But that is something quite different from saying "The business model is not sustainable", isn't it? This here is saying "I do not trust ED to be able to keep to these plans, so I won't invest". That is a perfectly reasonable opinion about the company, but it is not the same as saying that the plan in itself is bad (or "non-sustainable"). And as ED says: So far, things are going according to plan (that is, the plans from around investment time), and that is including the split between new and old orders.

 

[konqithedragon]

I'd like to make a serious yet minor suggestion..


for every last remaining 'classic pre-order' that's not an upgrade there be some kind of stamp on it...


maybe a


blue/green/red/whatever stamp of a dragon..


just to make it a little bit more special without great cost.