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2 Months..... umm, weeks to go (2012-02-06)

Discussion in 'Pandora News' started by EvilDragon, Jan 29, 2012.

  1. elwing

    elwing Rabbit Addict

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    it start to feel like we are more and more forced to upgrade to premium...
     
  2. EvilDragon

    EvilDragon Administrator Staff Member

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    No. This is just valid for old customers, to be able to get their unit as fast as one of the new preorderers.

    I got about 650 preorders where half of them paid the small preorder amount.


    So it might be 300 - 600 before you get your unit if you order today.


    About 1000 are expected to be produced per month, so you can make a guess yourself.


    Things might be a bit slower at the beginning, as getting routine in your actions and optimizing the packaging, shipping, etc. for such huge amounts mostly always take a while.

    I will probably have to remove all TV Out cables right now and offer them later seperately.


    Shipping just a cable in a signed letter shouldn't cost too much as well.


    Shipping costs are being calculated. Thanks to link who offers the shipping in US for all units, shipping costs are down to 20USD for US customers.

    Yes. Without the 1000 broken PCBs from CC, the price could be a bit lower.


    We need to recover the money for the broken PCBs, and the only way was to rise the product price a bit.

    Hm, that might be an interesting idea, I'll think about that.

    Well, knowing the username would be quite an act, as nobody ordered a Pandora using his username ;)


    However, you COULD grab anyone here from the boards who you want to help and pay for his upgrade, so it would be the same ;)

    Cracks in these units will be replaced as well when I replace the PCB.

    If it goes down, it will be about 5 - 10 EUR.


    I'll need to update my calculation with the real prices paid, then I can tell more :)

    I'm still continuing the ones with broken nubs and LCD cables myself. Anyone with a broken nub or LCD Cable is free to upgrade to a new PCB at the same time as well.


    The ones currently waiting for new PCBs will get a new PCB once the production starts.


    I can't possibly demand an upgrade price for those (as it's my duty to fix broken units and there's no other way except for putting a new one in), but if anyone who's got an RMA is happy to donate a few bucks because he got an upgraded PCB back, then I'm fine as well.

    Not sure yet, but I'm thinking of about 250 EUR for fully working units with less RAM and maybe 200 EUR for units which have some things broken (like WiFi, etc.).


    Both prices without VAT.

    With each batch of 1000 units, I've got two queues:


    One queue with the units I need to deliver to new customers to keep the production going (new money coming in).


    One queue with the units for old preorderers.


    For example, the initial setup for the queue might be:


    500 to new customers (which would be enough to fund the next batch of 1000).


    500 to classic preorderers.


    Then every second unit will go to a classic preorder.


    Now with upgrades (both to get your unit faster or to upgrade your existing PCBs), new orders of refurbished units and donations, more money is thrown into the pot.


    The more money is in the pot, the less money needs to be made with new sales to fund the next 1000 units.


    Therefore, the queue will shift a bit and more classic preorderers will get their unit from this batch.

    It worked out until CC suddenly stopped delivering PCBs without telling us upfront.


    However, I will not promise to deliver them within 7 days. The user will just move up on the classic preorder queue and get the unit when it's ready.

    I'd love to change that.


    If anyone has any ideas how to achieve that, I would be very happy.

    No. The purpose of finding investors from the very beginning was to safe the full production, fund the move to Germany and make it possible to continue the whole thing.


    And that's exactly what they did.


    We CAN continue the production and we wouldn't NEED any upgrades.


    With the first new 4000 units sold, every classic preorder would've gotten a unit as well.


    But as these upgrades both helps the one who upgraded as well as another classic preorderer getting the unit faster, I don't see no reason to not offer them.


    The purpose of the investors NEVER was to deliver all units to old customers first. That wouldn't work out.


    Just a quick example:


    We had 1200 preorders left in August.


    That would mean: At least 2000 units would need to be produced.


    With the one-time-costs (move the parts, program the machines, etc.), about 500,000 EUR of money would've been needed.


    So I would've needed to get 500,000 EUR from investors... a large sum. And the more investors I got, the more interest I would need to pay, so I couldn't take more than 350,000 EUR.


    Therefore, this wouldn't have worked out.


    Keep in mind that I don't have any donators here - I've got investors. At sometime, they want to get their money back, so I need to be sure that happens :)
     
  3. EvilDragon

    EvilDragon Administrator Staff Member

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    So what kind of lack of financial planning was it that the main PCB manufacturer just killed about 300,000 EUR?


    I started the full plan for the move to Germany in July, and everything moved according to plan.


    Both financially as well as production-wise.

    I'm not sure where you would've gotten enough interest to get the prive difference


    The price in 2009 was about 299 EUR.


    Now it's 445 EUR.


    That's about 150 EUR more.


    What bank will make you 150 EUR profit within 2,5 years out of 300 EUR you put in?


    That would be an amazing interes rate.

    So your solution was...?


    Giving up on the whole thing, go for insolvency and neither send these loyal customers a refund OR a Pandora?


    Don't forget: You're not the only loyal customers.


    There are about 1000.


    The actual PCB production costs more than most of you paid for the full unit.


    And that's on top on the 300,000 EUR loss because of the 1000 PCBs CC killed.


    I'm trying my best to find a way to resolve the money, make sure the company stays alive AND deliver all units to all remaining customers.


    I'm welcome to get any ideas how to first send all units to the old customers out.


    A donation of 300,000 EUR would be enough for that. Simply find one that will do that and I promise to you that the first ones receiving their units will be the old preorderers, the loyal customers. All of them.
     
  4. matzesu

    matzesu Advanced Member

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    As for Upgrade: My Unit has a Wifi isue and i ditnt bee Linux Profi enought to figure out it is hardware or software, but i dont need dreamcast emulation as i ditnt owne dreamcast games, so the 256 mb on my pandora first batsh should be enought for me..,


    I hope the new Kernel will also Work whit the 256 mb Pandora, and the new Games too, the old pandora can be a bit slower in Gimp etc, but games should be work on both pandorae..


    Im looking forward to the new Produktionrun, but the next Pandora i preorder is Pandora too, because i have Pandora 1 since March 2010, and its great,
     
  5. kasp

    kasp Active Member

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    Sounds confusing with the queues. I bet you will be glad for when it is a first in first serve basis.


    I understand why you have gone down this path, I also understand why people are pissed off. Well hopefully everything occurs without a hitch, then it will all be a thing of the past. :)
     
  6. trinz

    trinz Still Fresh

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    Well, I guess we'll find out what the potential delay is first batch preorderers when ED works out the queues.


    I just hope that I'll get mine by the end of March...
     
  7. gadgetoid

    gadgetoid Moderator Staff Member

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    If the case gets fixed up along with the board upgrade, I'll certainly consider getting mine upgraded! Sounds good.


    I'm torn between that, and just buying a second one though. As the Pandora gets more and more awesome with new software, the thought of it suddenly dying on me gets more horrifying.
     
  8. F_Slim

    F_Slim IDDQD

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    As long as people move up the queue by time of upgrade and not by the amount of money payed this might be ok.


    Personally I would prefer to have the same upgrade as the premium was: pay the difference between what you payed and what it actually costs (which we all should know where it came from by now, and not start making false accusations here) and that's it.


    Donate if you want to donate, to speed up the old queue if you want to. But I feel it would just make things more complicated and less transparent if you start a "pay what you can afford or want"-thing, so I think this should be clearly seperated.
     
  9. theshining

    theshining Still Fresh

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    Personally I'm a batch two preorder'er and haven't paid to upgrade, and I don't really care where I am in the queue now as it's fun to watch the project get on it's feet at last, so everyone's welcome to pay a premium and jump in front of me, with an added benefit of when mine gets built most of the production bugs should have been squashed, so still looking at "two months" tm, honestly I'm in no rush, I'm even going to resist the urge to buy a psvita, oh yeah anyone else itching to get a raspberry pi?.
     
  10. jkt

    jkt Still Fresh

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    That would come under 'operational risk', and financial management / costing of that potential should have been factored into the original pricing structure. Relying on a single provider for all your PCB requirements needlessly added in a single point of failure into the supply chain, and made you powerless to whim; which stung you. Now the whole production has moved to Germany, again to a single provider... Anyone else see a repeat happening in the future?

    You're right, no bank would give me that kind of profit on that investment over that time period. But for the comparison to be valid, if I cancel my order, you'll need to refund 450 EUR to my account. Will you do that? If so, please cancel my order. If not, change the reasoning, it's invalid.

    It sounds like you're running a pyramid scheme where the original investors will only get their money (or pandora) as long as new customers come in. As soon as new custom stops (which I predict it will, given the technology is now 3 years old and the device costs multiples of things like the far-higher spec'd 3DS (which, with an R4 you can play homebrew on)), no-one gets anything new; company goes bust.


    I know I'm giving you a hard time here (it's borne entirely out of frustration) but what are the plans to rectify this deficit? Sure, you've got investors, but as you rightly say in another post, eventually they'll want their money back; then you're in exactly the same hole again.

    You're justifying, again, the bad financial planning. If the PCB production costs more than you're charging for the units, then why price them at that level to begin with?


    If that price is no longer financially viable, cancel the old orders - explaining honestly what's happened and why it's happened - and hope people reorder. I can't speak for others, but I would certainly respect that sort of transparency above how it's been managed so far.


    What's the real (actual) cost difference between what I've paid for the Pandora (via Craig's company - it was costed at 250 GBP at the time) and what it's costing you (materials/production/time)?


    Again, I know I'm giving you a hard time during what's already probably a very stressful period, but I want to know that it's worth remaining invested in this...
     
  11. MasterJulian

    MasterJulian Still Fresh

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    Thanks for the upadate. Now is there a fixed ratio old:new preorders? In an older thread (iirc) 1:4 was mentioned. Now you said 1:1 for an example. Is there anything planed/solid yet? I am one of the last of the first 4000 Batch (ordered Oct. 09). That would mean with 1:1 that ~2000 Pandoras would be needed until I get mine. With 250 Units/Week thats (who would have guessed) 2 Months after Production started and everything goes by plan.
     
  12. thatgui

    thatgui Advanced Member

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    I don't think that this is in any way practical. Even bigger companies which have a lot more money to spend usually rely on one manufacturer.


    Having to split the amount of pieces to order over several companies would rise the price tremendously.


    But even it were true, this wasn't something that was hidden from any of us. They always said it would be an adventure - so the decision wether making the preorder and taking a risk, was yours to make. Don't blame the OP Team for your decisions

    Why is he ought to refund you more than your originally paid ?

    Pyramid schemes don't work that way. If this whole thing was a pyramid scheme customers of ED would have to sell Pandoras too

    As said at least more then 30 times over the last years, they simply didn't expect to run into that much trouble
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 6, 2012
  13. moxie

    moxie The voice of reason, sense and exasperation Staff Member

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    You do realize that the reason this has dragged on so long is because they don't give up, don't you? I mean, most other companies get themselves piles of capital at startup by going to investors/venture capitalists with their business plan. With that money at their back, they start off and pray that nothing showstopping an unexpected happens (like a global financial crisis, an icelandic volcano eruption or the folding of a key supplier), because when they don't hit that target date or target profit, the money gets pulled and the company goes bankrupt. And then there is no product and your 300 euros are lost.


    OP didn't go this way. If this is because of excellent business foresight on our esteemed company leaders, because of extreme paranoia in letting anyone at all have any sort of say in the proceedings, or just plain because noone wanted to touch the business plan with a ten-foot pole, I'll let someone else decide. Still, the fact is that OP started this off being more or less selffinanced(*) (also, possibly, underfinanced). This means that there is no set date where Craig and ED has to stand in front of the VCs and tell them that they haven't turned enough profit, and then getting shutdown and bankrupted.


    (*)..or, rather, us-financed.


    Do ED and Craig wriggle every which way, in ways that you've never seen before in a decent company? Of course they do. Because they can - They have no money masters. If they had, none of us would have any pandoras. Now, some of us have, and ED and Craig are wriggling every which way in order to make it so that more of us have them. Possibly not in the timeframe we would like, possibly not in the order we would like. But the alternative isn't really that Craig and ED shape up and do stuff in the proper manner. If they'd done things in the proper manner, they wouldn't be here.


    So in the end, it is really only: Do you believe that you will get your pandora, finally? And do you believe you'll still have use for it then? If so, hang on. If not, don't. But the reasons for this lack of timeliness and this haphazard history is also the reason that that first question is still a question at all.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 6, 2012
  14. moxie

    moxie The voice of reason, sense and exasperation Staff Member

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    ...of course, in combination with a rather large showing of loyalty from us. We, as a group, also could have shut the whole thing down long ago.
     
  15. quartercast

    quartercast Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm, interesting proposition. ED why don't you send an email out saying:

     
  16. Annales

    Annales Still Fresh

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    I guess a lot of us are surprised and angered by the latested installment of delays.


    I agree everything was looking bleak and the project seemd like going down the drain about a year ago. That was hard on everyone. Then the project moves to Germany and things speed up incredibly and we're looking for a production run in Jan/Feb with quick deliveries. Everyone rejoices.


    Now all of a sudden we, most fervent long term waiting fans (that's a long one i admit), have to take it that freshly arrived clients get their pandoras first. After all that rollercoaster ride it just feels unfair.


    I'm staying in the project since i love what it represents. It's just hard dealing with the "soon", "not so soon", "i can't tell", "tomorrow", "anotherday" Dukenukem forever effect.
     
  17. TrashyMG

    TrashyMG Moderator Staff Member

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    Well Craig's shop has the majority of the pre-orders not ED.
     
  18. jkt

    jkt Still Fresh

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    I'd be interested to see the evidence behind both of those statements.

    The decision on placing a pre-order was on the (now seemingly incorrect) assumption there would be a FIFO in place. Perhaps that question should have been made to begin with - 'if I place my order today, will I receive it before others who place 'pre-orders' in three years time?'. But should we really have to do that kind of ass covering on a community supported project?

    ED said:

    Which is only valid if the pre-order is an investment where I can realise that 150 EUR profit. I can't. It's an invalid argument based on false premise.

    Maybe 'pyramid scheme' was a little harsh; it's certainly a non-sustainable business model though.

    So we are to be punished for that lack of foresight and planning?
     
  19. kaiserpc

    kaiserpc Still Fresh

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    Why didn't you tell us original pre-orderers that we would be last in the queue - originally, when you setup your new business plan a few months ago? Is it because you just decided on this course of action?, or is it because you thought we would all jump ship then, and cancel before Christmas?


    I originally ordered back in January 2009 - over 3 years ago now. I'm not sure how much I originally paid, but in my current situation I cannot afford to throw any more money at this to get it any sooner. To be honest I'm not waitng for this with baited breath any more. It's been that long now that I've nearly written the whole thing off. The only thng stopping me claiming my money back is 1. I don't think I'll get it, and 2. If I do get a refund I put the whole project in jeopardy of failing.


    Kudos for EvilDragon for keeping going with this though - he has put a lot of work and good feeling into this project, and a lesser man would have given up long ago. I 100% hope that you can pull it off, and not so I can get a unit - but because you deserve to see some profit/money for all your hard work.
     
  20. klaxonn

    klaxonn Still Fresh

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    So every 2 Pandoras, one will be for old orders, and that from the start of the production, right ?


    Not so bad i think.
     

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