If there are less cases then it follows to my mind that there are less infections. If there are less infections there is less scope for mutation.
How do you know there are fewer cases ? Asymptomatic or even mild cases may have increased and we wouldn't know ? Or does the UK do big screenings with random people being tested to estimate how many viruses are there ?
In most vaccine clinical trials they weren't testing asymptomatic people. And even when they did, my understanding is that the UK plan is not to use the same intervals between doses than in those trials.
My understanding is that vaccines, the selection of recipients of vaccines, and the increasingly better (never enough) knowledge about how to treat the disease means the mortatily (deaths/cases) is lower.
The other day I heard (about UE?) that the occupation of the ICUs is much higher not so much because of so many patients but because patients stay more days in there and the explanations is that
before they died in the ICU and vacated then, but as more people exit the ICU alive there are more beds busy. Like in people have always needed average x days of ICU to recover, just that few of them used to achieve recovery.
Fewer deaths and fewer severe cases is great but it does not necessarily mean there're fewer viruses. Might be or might be that they're still there but unable to kill so much.
So if you dedicate more stock to second doses, then you leave more people unvaccinated, and if the virus can survive in people with one dose it can surely survive in people with no dose, likely in greater numbers.
The point would be (virologists vs epidemiologists) whether living in unvaccinated people is less of a cause to mutate because there's not the evolutionary pressure that the defenses of people with one dose put up.
A little like fostering resistant bacteria because of interrupted antibiotic treatments. I don't know
The only problem with vaccinating all of your folk is it you don't let vaccines out to other countries that don't have them, then mutations can be generated there which may well turn out to be immune to our newly developed immunity, and with world travel being what it is these days, it only takes time if that were to happen.
Indeed.