War in Ukraine


netcat

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Why would he fire missiles at his own people?
To stop a revolution. Which is inevitable now that Apple and Daimler-Benz have pulled out.

Let's not forget:


The Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989) was a conflict wherein insurgent groups known collectively as the Mujahideen, as well as smaller Maoist groups, fought a nine-year guerrilla war against the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) and the Soviet Army throughout the 1980s, mostly in the Afghan countryside. The Mujahideen were variously backed primarily by the United States, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Kingdom; the conflict was a Cold War-era proxy war. Between 562,000[49] and 2,000,000 Afghans were killed and millions more fled the country as refugees,[53][54][50][51] mostly to Pakistan and Iran. Between 6.5%–11.5% of Afghanistan's population is estimated to have perished in the conflict. The war caused grave destruction in Afghanistan, and it has also been cited by scholars as a contributing factor to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, in hindsight leaving a mixed legacy to people in both territories

>> Same old shit. Proxy war. 2m (11.5% of) Afghanis died over 9 years. For no reason. Russia gave up and pulled out eventually.
 
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levi

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Don't forget the annexation of a portion of Geogia, now known as South Ossetia. That was the conflict most recently prior to the invasion of ukraine as far as I know, and certainly more recent than the fighting in Chechnya (also no idea on the spelling). The fighting there was part of the dissolution of the USSR more closely, and was inspired I think by the idea of the Chechnyans thinking they could form their own country. The cause of the fighting against the georgians is less clear in my mind, but reportedly had something to do with people believing that life was better as part of the USSR than it was now.
 

FBnil

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For news, use the radio:

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/
use the logbook to search for a frequency
Or click around with the triangle.
Use autonotch to improve audio.
The BBC launched a shortwave radio service to provide news to RU and UA
It can be received at 15735 kHz from 16:00-18:00 GMT and 5875 kHz from 22:00-00:00
You can use the radio above if you are curious
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Seems like the type of stuff Putin would be into.
I'll let him know next time I meet him. He'll need your address though, so he can thank you properly.
Pretty sure vaccinations won’t end the world
Pretty sure the video thinks so too.
 

netcat

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Dunno if you guys are into game theory or not, but it seems to me the best move might be to launch our most deadly, simultaneous offensive strike now. Our current strategy (praying) might not be effective enough.
 

netcat

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If the Germans and Japanese had armies now things would be different ..... ha ha ha. Sorry, gotta laugh.
 
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pyrat

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Dunno if you guys are into game theory or not,
No.
but it seems to me the best move might be to launch our most deadly, simultaneous offensive strike now. Our current strategy (praying) might not be effective enough.
I've even heard (not giving or taking credibility to it) that that's Putin plan. He would have sacrificed his worse troops and old equipment in Ukraine as bait for NATO to do something that gives him the excuse to attack the whole block and reconquer some territory like the Varsovian pact or similar. He thinks he either wins Ukraine or wins more. But the fact that he started at end of winter instead of beginning makes me doubt this is all about it.
If the Germans and Japanese had armies now things would be different ..... ha ha ha. Sorry, gotta laugh.
Yes, they would be worse. It's been tried. If they had good enough spies they might be better (or not).
 

FBnil

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it seems to me the best move might be to launch our most deadly, simultaneous offensive strike now.
Ah, a fan of MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). Yes, pretty clever of you. You know about the unstoppable hyper-sonic transcontinental missiles that Russia has, right? (mach 40, or so I'm told) I'm glad you are not at the helm.
For now, a third of the Russian population is in doubt about the war. An all-out offensive puts them against the wall and, with nothing to lose, they'll go all-out.
Then again, that is the idea. The world in fear of total anihilation, because then... he's coming to save us (the antichrist). Making peace and with high charisma will sway the world to follow him. And countries will give up their sovereinty to join this huge alliance.

I'm more curious if toilet paper runs out on a ISS Russian while on the toilet, if the others would give him a new toiletpaperroll.
 

TeDaDeS

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For now, a third of the Russian population is in doubt about the war. An all-out offensive puts them against the wall and, with nothing to lose, they'll go all-out.
I think indeed it's a factor of not reacting and portray on side as the aggressor helps. Russians don't really fear they'll be destroyed by Ukraine, and if Ukraine just sits there and takes the hits people will not support those attacks much.
If Ukraine would instead start bombing separatist or even parts of Russia, everyone would find it reasonable to continue the war.
That's probably one of the reasons news is mostly controlled by the Russian government, so they don't lose support.

If you would want the war to end quickly I would think one bomb on Putin would do the trick. But that will upset Russia and the rest of the world also, which in the long run will cause distrust and more problems.
The cheapest thing would probably be to buy the Russian government and have Putin removed from office. Germany is investing 100 billion into defense spending, buying government officials and state media might be cheaper.
 

pyrat

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I think indeed it's a factor of not reacting and portray on side as the aggressor helps. Russians don't really fear they'll be destroyed by Ukraine, and if Ukraine just sits there and takes the hits people will not support those attacks much.
Well, but there's Russian propaganda opportunity in playing the Ukranian bid to join NATO as a threat to Russia. Ukraine may not destroy Russia, but the NATO might. Before the war began (I mean this year, although maybe it just began in 2014)
there were two sides to the story. The NATO was also sending more troops to members near Russia. Now Russia has invaded Ukraine and neither Ukraine nor NATO has invaded Russia. There's an argument to be made that it wasn't balanced
to keep NATO while the Varsovian Pact dismantled.

If Ukraine would instead start bombing separatist or even parts of Russia, everyone would find it reasonable to continue the war.
I'm not really well aware, but I thought Ukraine has been bombing the Donetsk and Luhantsk since 2014 ? I'm not clear on how much that was self defense, on how legit their referendums war, on who started it all (there were more or less unbranded Russian troops there before the referendums I think, so it's not so easy as the Donbass declaring independence from Ukraine just as Ukraine declared independence from the CCCP before, it's something between that and eight years of partial Russian invasion).
In any case Ukraine has not bombed or invaded the Russian Federation, so that should be easy to see to anyone, even the Russian public.

That's probably one of the reasons news is mostly controlled by the Russian government, so they don't lose support.
It cuts both ways. It's as you said but then having to force the control of media gives away to more people there's something fishy. It's usually better to have two or more parties to choose from that sell the same fundamental system, and maybe some very small dissent to label as radical and insignificant. When you can no longer do that, and have to forbid words and imprision dissenters without fabricated charges, just directly for talking against the army, it means you are already retreating in your public opinion control. You haven't lost, but problems are more evident than you'd like. That's for example why Russians were more relunctant than other countries to take the COVID vaccines that Kremlin wanted them to take. It's not that they knew they were bad. They just couldn't believe anything their government told them in general. They just close their noses and carry on with their lives while it somehow works. Once they're hungry something might change. Or not. Putin has probably planned to dump their poor on the UE too. But there's a limit on how long you can keep your country going like that.
If you would want the war to end quickly I would think one bomb on Putin would do the trick. But that will upset Russia and the rest of the world also, which in the long run will cause distrust and more problems.
The cheapest thing would probably be to buy the Russian government and have Putin removed from office. Germany is investing 100 billion into defense spending, buying government officials and state media might be cheaper.
Sounds very western minded. It's possibly cheaper but I don't think Putin will allow it so easily, that's what I meant with spies. Going openly to buy the oligarchy can be very very expensive, maybe more than war in only monetary terms. And I'm not convinced that the western oligarchy is richer than the Russian oligarchy, so who's going to buy the Russian oligarchy? The Chinese ? Maybe they could but it wasn't their plan. I guess the sanctions are just trying to lower the eventual price (faster than the decrease in western buying power with some luck).
 

netcat

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Ah, a fan of MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). Yes, pretty clever of you. You know about the unstoppable hyper-sonic transcontinental missiles that Russia has, right? (mach 40, or so I'm told) I'm glad you are not at the helm.
For now, a third of the Russian population is in doubt about the war. An all-out offensive puts them against the wall and, with nothing to lose, they'll go all-out.
Then again, that is the idea. The world in fear of total anihilation, because then... he's coming to save us (the antichrist). Making peace and with high charisma will sway the world to follow him. And countries will give up their sovereinty to join this huge alliance.

I'm more curious if toilet paper runs out on a ISS Russian while on the toilet, if the others would give him a new toiletpaperroll.
Of of course I am a fan of MAD. I fan and stoke MAD. |-)

But no it's not MAD because the intent is survival. I am vaugely aware of ICBMs.

I wonder where the Russian subs are.
 
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netcat

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It's just their website code. javascript and python. no database. only 5M decompressed. pretty weak, anonymous. i is disappoint.

The default root password for something is passadmin:

check_or_init_superuser.py: User.objects.create_superuser(username=settings.INITIAL_SUPER_USER, password=settings.INITIAL_SUPER_USER_PASS, email='root@localhost.')

settings.py:INITIAL_SUPER_USER_PASS = os.getenv('APP_SUPERUSER_PASS', default='passadmin')
 

pyrat

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This might be the root cause of the invasion. They're just looking for a free room for Putin:
17:58

Russian troops capture psychiatric hospital 60 km from Kyiv, says local media​

There are reports coming in that a psychiatric hospital in a town 60km (37 miles) north-west of Kyiv has been captured by Russian forces, trapping some 670 patients inside.
Ukrainian news platform Hromadske says Kyiv's regional governor confirmed the hospital in Borodyanka had been captured.
"Today we do not understand how to evacuate these people, how to help them," Oleksiy Kuleba said.
"They are running out of water and medicines.
"These are people with certain special needs, they need constant help... many of them have been bedridden for years."
He added that there was a chance the building could be mined, according to Hromadske.
Now seriously. What's that for a military target ? They're kind of declaring they're crazy if they need to seize that
 

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TeDaDeS

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Can't disagree with her on that, she's spot on. I hope the toddler she spoke to also found it insightful.

A crew of Sky news in Ukraine got shot at and released the video (they survived). Usually news crews stay clear and are relatively safe, but it shows what can happen to ordinary civilians when driving in their own city. Pretty scary.
 

comradekingu

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@netcat Are you humoring yourself with the worst possible takes?
I'm a pacifist, so I can hardly justify anyone giving weapons away (or selling them). But then there's self defense. If I had to criticize something from Zelensky it wouldn't be that he's giving arms to civilians. It'd be that he's not letting men 18-60 to leave their country. It's discriminatory by gender and age, and it's condemning people to death for no reason. That those who want to stay and help, or even fight are given means, it's understandable. That those that may not want to fight are forced to, I don't understand. And I certainly wouldn't like to fight side by side with someone that was forced to fight. I even think that if Ukraine would allow men to flee, not many would (most women, children and elders stay, after all, despite those leaving being still a whole lot).
@netcat may be right that resistance is futile and all that. But that's not for @netcat or me to decide. Ukranians have the right to decide whether they want to risk a likely death instead of a lousy life. Each one for themselves not ones for the others.
And they may just want to leave their Russian brothers time to get rid of Putin (which I doubt will be fast enough).
Zelensky's government has offered any Russian soldier who defects 42000€ or so and amnesty. That's more clever than fighting, but may not be good enough (soldiers may fear for their families back home, their own fate when caught or whatever, but I doubt they understand why are they fighting to begin with, although I guess when one asks himself that any often one doesn't become soldier).
Arguing on part of being a pacifist is is a supposed inability to do something by choice not derived from the conditions of being able to chose and abstaining, ala "I can't do this because I am vegan". You reason in the very thing you pertain to be unable to, so that means weapons for people other than yourself? How far does the self go? In a zero sum scenario, self-defense exists for all parties btw.

Put yourself in his shoes, and you can either defect or try to signal opposition.
The propaganda effort has all sorts of potential, and the bar is low.
To arm a population having amassed grievances without them also means other scores are settled.
A war fought with Ukrainian women using hand-weapons is not good optics, nor are they trained to do so.
Having the entire populace capable of fighting a guerilla war leave is a default loss for the person giving orders.
Gender politics vanish immediately removed from the underpinnings of western pretence. Ipso facto.
The EU is dealt a hand having to play along like it was a fight to be had, when it offers temporary asylum.
Note that work-permits will follow those.

The gas and oil is and will be bought, and Ukraine not joining NATO is communicated openly.
The consideration of fighting a professional army or not doesn't take into account being invaded by a less corrupt entity.
Ukraine is bankrupt and can hardly afford to pay its citizens pensions.
The economic incentive does not even abate the surge in crime internally.
Entire regions are seceding and steadfast in this aim when the industry laden parts it constitutes have lost much of that capacity.
We observe the tactics and results of an army as distinct from a scenario where people don't know what they are doing.
When you rationalize they can make that consideration for their families, you are inserting a motive for exactly why they are there on both sides of what is often the same coin.
If you think you are immune from reprisals from Russia in present day Ukraine, I really don't know what to tell you.

TL;DR If you believe in self-defense for anyone that could put up a fight or actually change outcomes, what do you think is on the table in so doing?
 
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