Pandora 2 probability debate

[bukkit]

And why are you unwilling without more information?

Because...

It could be easily interpreted as a declaration of will to forfeit my money (as most people seem to believe that's going to be the case).

You are afraid of being locked in somehow and forfeiting your money.
This isn't me living in my own little world as you have suggested, this is me repeating back exactly what you have said and telling you what they mean through logical conclusion. It's not extrapolated, it's concluded.

Take a thorough look. There is no "fear" in what you purport to be "repeating back exactly". There isn't "fear" anywhere in what I wrote about my feelings in this issue, except, somewhere, my claim of not feeling fear despite your insistence, similar to here. I always called it "unwilling".

Also, there is no logical conclusion equalizing "unwillingness" with "fear". Therefore it's imagined, not concluded. And it doesn't gain anything by repetition. Whenever you take "unwilling" and name it "fear", you're starting to live in your own world.

This is symptomatic of what you're doing in this thread. It's also easily provable, so I took this example. You should try not to do this.

 

[WizardStan]

Fear is an emotional reaction to a perceived threat. You are unwilling to move forward because you believe there is a risk that you will be locked in to this decision and lose your money. By definition, you are afraid of losing your money if you complete the survey without the details you keep asking for.

Unwilling is what you are, fear is what makes you so.

 

[bukkit]

Sorry if I missed it, because I'm late to the party. But on what evidence do you base this assumption on ?

Not only late, man. The booze was empty 6 hours ago.

Well, it's open for interpretation here and there, and only pulled together quickly, but my impression is a sceptical majority:

Well that's elementary.  You're out of your money and hopes for any return if you choose that option.  That has to be as simple of an equation as you can get....

 

I would assume this option still leaves you with the option of asking for a refund at some point in the future - you're just saying 'at this moment, I have no better use for this money than to loan it to the project'.

 

One question I couldn't find answered:

If I opt for waiting for the Pandora2, what happens if Pandora2 doesn't happen?

The answer is:Exactly.

Satisfied?

 

As I read it, you might loose everything if the P2 won't happen.

I took that last option to be just an altruistic type of "actually, I'm ok, you can just keep the money" option, with a slight hint of getting something for it.

 

If the survey was abou honoring a trip, the options sound like: 1) pay more and get a 5 star hotel upgrade, 2) wait until we can honor your order, 3) wait a bit more and we offer you a trip to the Moon!!

The trip to the Moon is very, very unlikely, unfortunately, and it's not very nice to give people false hope (again...). So, do you guys really want that option in there?

 

That's the way that I'm reading things here.  If you have a lot of disposable income and don't mind losing the money and gambling on an undecided future product, then go for it - gamble on a P2.  If you relly don't want to risk losing the money, then decide on getting a P1 and either enjoy it when you get it, or sell it.  A P2 may never happen.

 

I would assume (as many have) that if you do decide to let your money ride, and there is no future product then that money will be lost.

 I really don't get this... Why automatically assume the worst? I would assume that having reached the point of having decided "no we won't go ahead with a successor after all"  there would still be the option of fulfilling the original order normally.

- Neelix

 

Bukkit (and other pre-orders of the P1), if I were you I would go for the P1 and wait *if* the P2 comes to fruition. The information you have right now (imho) doesn't justify backing the P2. It is simply too vague.

No more pre-order qeue agony. this has to stop right here and now.

Keep the finances of the P1 and "P2" separate. I also concur with ekianjo that I would be extremely wary if Craigix would lead the P2 project because of reasons mentioned many times over.

 

[aatu]

I would like to chime in a little bit regarding the "fear":

Fear is an emotional reaction to a perceived threat. You are unwilling to move forward because you believe there is a risk that you will be locked in to this decision and lose your money. By definition, you are afraid of losing your money if you complete the survey without the details you keep asking for.
Unwilling is what you are, fear is what makes you so.

I don't think that constitutes as "fear". Otherwise every uncertainty any person confronts could be equalized to fear. Fear is about being afraid. I mean really afraid. Not like "I'm afraid we can't hire you this time". Think more like "I'm afraid of heights". Bukkit sees the situation as an uncertainty or risk he's not willing to take, at least not without further details. That's not fear, that's just being reasonable and rational. And by comparison, those who are willing to take the P2 plunge without further information aren't brave, they're simply reckless or foolhardy. Huge difference in both situations. In my opinion, using "fear" in this situation would dilute the meaning of it.

But, regarding making a choice, for bukkit (or anyone else in a similar position):
If they don't want to give more details anymore (as it so seems), then simply choose with the "lowest common denominator" (in this case the worst-case-scenario). Therefore, scrap the P2 option altogether.

 

[WizardStan]

I don't think that constitutes as "fear".

The dictionary disagrees with you.

a distressing emotion aroused by impending danger, evil, pain, etc., whether the threat is real or imagined

It even has other definitions which include simply "distress".

Otherwise every uncertainty any person confronts could be equalized to fear. Fear is about being afraid. I mean really afraid.

There are many levels of fear. It ranges from being uncomfortable in a situation to full on terror. Fear is of course about being afraid, it's the definition. But "really afraid" is entirely subjective and also unnecessary. If you are experiencing some kind of unease due to potential for pain or loss, that is fear.
bukkit senses danger: the possibility of being locked into a decision that is disfavourable to him. It is not a pleasant sensation. By definition, he is experiencing fear. He's afraid that if he fills out the survey incorrectly he'll be locked into a bad situation and risk losing his money. I don't understand why this is a point of contention, it's pretty obvious.

 

[moxie]

bukkit senses danger: the possibility of being locked into a decision that is disfavourable to him. It is not a pleasant sensation. By definition, he is experiencing fear. He's afraid that if he fills out the survey incorrectly he'll be locked into a bad situation and risk losing his money. I don't understand why this is a point of contention, it's pretty obvious.

It is a point of contention because the word fear implies that a person might be afraid, and that is a sign of weakness in our society in general and for males in particular. Therefore, people like to redefine words like "fear" so that they apply to other people, not themselves, and argue that they are indeed not afraid, that is not the thing at all, ha ha see me laugh in the face of danger, what fear? 

That, of course, does not change the actual reality of, say, being afraid of locking oneself into an unfavorable decision, but it sounds better on the ears.

It is somewhat the same thing that happens with the word "truth", but in reverse. "Truth" is a positively loaded word, whilst stuff that goes around "opinion" or "feeling" is much weaker. Therefore, people say stuff like "This is my truth" instead of saying "This is my opinion" or "I feel this way". Adds a bit of good, solid truthiness to your image. Completely bogus, but sounds good.

One might even say that bukkit obviously fears being labeled as someone who is afraid of things

 

[cuetzpalin]

I'm thankful to the entire Pandora Team. But, to be honest and no offense intended, I wouldn't trust in a Pandora 2 project managed by Craig.

I acknowledge what Craig has done for the Pandora. Both: good and bad things.

Craig coud be involved, of course, I don't have any harsh feelings. But I wouldn't trust him to deliver in time, or even to deliver at all. I'm not saying he is the cause of all the problems the Pandora had. I'm sure he is not. But certainly, he is at least indirectly responsible for many of them: If you're leading a team, and the team fails, you must admit your responsibility. If you hire a company, and the company fails, you must admit your responsibility.

There are some people which are very talented in some areas, but fail dramatically in others. I think Craig falls in this category. And everybody here knows what he's good at, and what he sucks at.

 

[vcoleiro1]

I don't think bukkit is afraid, he just wanted more info that's it. Who knows, he may have gone down the path of going for a P2 even it was confirmed that his money would be lost (which I don't believe to be the case) .

What he didn't want is his question to be derailed by  pages of  what fear is.  

He did make it very clear in the original thread that he wanted no one else to answer his questions but Craig. Instead he gets derailed ending in this BS.

 

[aatu]

The spoiler contains only discussion regarding fear, so uninterested parties can skip this post, if necessary.

Spoiler

Though I don't think bukkit is waiting for an official answer, anymore. The discussion was removed from the original/official survey thread, after all. But in any case, I hope nobody minds if I chime in a bit more...?

---

a distressing emotion aroused by impending danger, evil, pain, etc., whether the threat is real or imagined

---The above definition by itself is already quite revealing, but I'll add few more to emphasize:

- the bad feeling that you have when you are in danger, when something bad might happen, or when a particular thing frightens you

- a feeling of agitation and anxiety caused by the presence or imminence of danger

- a painful emotion or passion excited by the expectation of evil, or the apprehension of impending danger; apprehension; anxiety; solicitude; alarm; dread

- that which causes, or which is the object of, apprehension or alarm; source or occasion of terror; danger; dreadfulness

- to feel a painful apprehension of; to be afraid of; to consider or expect with emotion of alarm or solicitude

- an unpleasant emotion caused by the threat of danger, pain, or harm

- be afraid of (someone or something) as likely to be dangerous, painful, or harmful

- a strong, uncontrollable, unpleasant emotion caused by actual or perceived danger or threat

- an emotion experienced in anticipation of some specific pain or danger (usually accompanied by a desire to flee or fight)

(then there were also quite a lot of examples regarding fear of gods and deities, but I don't think they're that important)

Also:

Degrees of fear -- Fear can be described by different terms in accordance with its relative degrees. Fear covers a number of terms - terror, fright, paranoia, horror, persecution complex, dread

Can you see a common pattern? Yes, some people use the term "fear" in a wide spectrum, won't argue with that. Actually, I came across a couple of quite loose definitions myself, which in my opinion were nowhere near "fear". But the common definition of fear seems to be somewhat more drastic and extreme.

And no, I wouldn't relate it to this situation. I could see "worried" as the probable term to describe bukkit's situation. That's quite a long way from actual fear. "Uneasiness" might also be appropriate. But I wouldn't coin either of them under "fear" or "being afraid".

PS. Sorry about the odd "---" dashlines in there. For some reason it didn't like line breaks near the quote...

 

[thatgui]

Well that's the thing: they have said "Pandora 2 might not happen". But that's all they said. They haven't confirmed or even hinted anything regarding what would happen if Pandora 2 was scrapped. And bukkit doesn't want to give them the OK until they do (which is a justifiable action, IMO).

 Hmm, I think I still don' really get it. What does he expect ? It seems quite obvious to me that they (or craig alone ?) don't want to give out any more information because they have no clue whatsoever how the whole P2 situation will work out (or if it even begins at all).

It was just a bad idea from the beginning to put this option in the survey - even if it was by user demand. If the P2 will really lift off they should be starting it with "a clean slate".

He is just waiting for an answer that he will not get. There simply can't be any kind of reassurance regarding this at this point in time.

Not only late, man. The booze was empty 6 hours ago.

Well, it's open for interpretation here and there, and only pulled together quickly, but my impression is a sceptical majority:

so you have no evidence at all, just a bunch of people poking around in the dark like yourself

 

[leathco]

I hope it happens, would love to see the icontrolpad2 form the controls, with the entire thing being thinner than our current pandora but with more power.  

With that said, if it doesnt happen, I will still have plenty of other handheld options.  GCW seems to be a new player, but even the cheap chinese android handhelds have been making some progress as well.  And there's still many years of life left in the current pandora project.

 

[bukkit]

Fear is an emotional reaction to a perceived threat. You are unwilling to move forward because you believe there is a risk that you will be locked in to this decision and lose your money. By definition, you are afraid of losing your money if you complete the survey without the details you keep asking for.

Unwilling is what you are, fear is what makes you so.

Like I said. Repetition does not make it true. I'm not afraid of losing my money. I just don't prefer losing my money. I'm not envisioning anything like a threat, I'm envisioning possible complications. You're just afraid, chicken scared, to admit you're wrong.

 

[bukkit]

Hmm, I think I still don' really get it. What does he expect ?

Yeah, looks like you don't get it. And I don't mean to be cynical or snarky. What I mean to say is, after all I wrote already, I don't know how to help any more, sorry.

Not only late, man. The booze was empty 6 hours ago.

Well, it's open for interpretation here and there, and only pulled together quickly, but my impression is a sceptical majority:

so you have no evidence at all, just a bunch of people poking around in the dark like yourself

You weren't very clear on what assumption you wished evidence for. But since there was essentially just one assumption in my statement, ie "most people seem to believe I forfeit my money if I opt for waiting for P2 and P2 doesn't happen", I provided evidence for that. If you don't regard quotes of people doubting as evidence for people doubting, well, again I don't know how to help.

 

[thatgui]

Yeah, looks like you don't get it. And I don't mean to be cynical or snarky. What I mean to say is, after all I wrote already, I don't know how to help any more, sorry.

I took the time to read through this thread (not the original one you linked to) and there is not much there (if you leave out you and wizardstan going around in circles) except that you want an answer that no one obviously wants to give you - some kind of reassurance that your money won't be wasted.

You weren't very clear on what assumption you wished evidence for. But since there was essentially just one assumption in my statement, ie "most people seem to believe I forfeit my money if I opt for waiting for P2 and P2 doesn't happen", I provided evidence for that. If you don't regard quotes of people doubting as evidence for people doubting, well, again I don't know how to help.

Hmm, thats debateable - I was reffering to (which I quoted):

.It could be easily interpreted as a declaration of will to forfeit my money

 

[aatu]

@thatgui:

I'd reckon what bukkit (and others) would like to hear is something along these lines:
"If the Pandora 2 doesn't go forward in two years, we will naturally refund the money"
or
"The P2 downpayment option can be exchanged for vouchers to our webshops at any given time later"
or
"If the Pandora 2 doesn't go forward, the pre-order money will be automatically re-used as a downpayment for our next project, whatever it is"
or
"The P2 choice is just a legal option to lend us the money for the time being, and after we get through this mess, we will refund the money"

Though possibly with a more thorough assessment on who is "we", "our", and so forth. As for if he's still expecting an answer or not, I would certainly hope not. As indeed, it would seem OPT won't be giving more details regarding this matter anymore.

Regarding "evidence":
The "It could be easily interpreted as a declaration of will to forfeit my money" is backed up by the fact that other people saw it that way too, don't you think?

Ps. Not that important of a notion, but you were probably referring to my linking of the original thread...

 

[bukkit]

And no, I wouldn't relate it to this situation. I could see "worried" as the probable term to describe bukkit's situation. That's quite a long way from actual fear. "Uneasiness" might also be appropriate. But I wouldn't coin either of them under "fear" or "being afraid".

Fine proposals, both!

It's interesting this thread wanders to the meanings and connotations of the word "fear". I could add to that by stating that I'm native german and I should add the german language knows at least two terms, "Angst" and "Furcht", which both can easily be translated to "Fear" but have rather differing meanings in german, Angst being usually irrational or diffuse (and closer to the term anxiety), Furcht related to a concrete threat.

Both are rather not applicable to my state of consciousness, though. I'd go with "uneasiness", that's nice. Even "worried" seems a little strong, in my opinion. Wikipedia isn't perfect, but it doesn't seem to stir all those together...

Also I'd like to iterate: "The fact that I'm thinking about waiting for the P2 alone should tell you I know no fear."

 

[thatgui]

I'd reckon what bukkit (and others) would like to hear is something along these lines:

...Though possibly with a more thorough assessment on who is "we", "our", and so forth. As for if he's still expecting an answer or not, I would certainly hope not. As indeed, it would seem OPT won't be giving more details regarding this matter anymore.

I know what they want to hear, and as I said there is no indication that it will happen (in this context) So please don't let me die dumb, if he has given up demanding the answer why is this thread still alive ?

Regarding "evidence":

The "It could be easily interpreted as a declaration of will to forfeit my money" is backed up by the fact that other people saw it that way too, don't you think?

No I don't think so - even if 10 people think someone is guilty of something it does not automatically mean he really is. A rather harsh example, but this forum has a very "florid" history of team member quotes that were tossed around and requoted and in the end had not much to do with the original statement that was made - so I'm very picky in that matter.

Ps. Not that important of a notion, but you were probably referring to my linking of the original thread...

true, my fault

 

[moxie]

Also I'd like to iterate: "The fact that I'm thinking about waiting for the P2 alone should tell you I know no fear."

Fair enough

 

[bukkit]

I took the time to read through this thread (not the original one you linked to) and there is not much there (if you leave out you and wizardstan going around in circles) except that you want an answer that no one obviously wants to give you - some kind of reassurance that your money won't be wasted.

That's all very true, yes.

You weren't very clear on what assumption you wished evidence for. But since there was essentially just one assumption in my statement, ie "most people seem to believe I forfeit my money if I opt for waiting for P2 and P2 doesn't happen", I provided evidence for that. If you don't regard quotes of people doubting as evidence for people doubting, well, again I don't know how to help.

Hmm, thats debateable - I was reffering to (which I quoted):

.It could be easily interpreted as a declaration of will to forfeit my money

Ah, I see. Well, that's an assumption stemming from the Definition of a contract, it essentially being a mutual declarence of will. And I think this survey could easily be judged as a declaration of will of my part. The whole survey does not state anywhere that this declaration would be preliminary, or hypothetical. Every single claim about it being so could easily be stripped off the survey, and even if conserved, be easily disputed; I haven't even managed to find the proof for this claim:

Craig and ED have made it pretty clear that the choices aren't final, you're under no obligation to go through with whatever your choice leads to, they're just trying to get an idea of what people would like to do.

Which doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I could easily have failed to find it, and anyway, legally, it's probably irrelevant in court. Less irrelevant, still in court, would be the fact that many people thought they'd forfeit their money. If a reasonable majority of people thinks something, it becomes "common sense", and that is actually relevant, juristically. The very obvious refusal to the slightest dispute of this commonly perceived scenario didn't help, either. I already mentioned the fact the survey is unnecessarily coupled with personal and order data. For a survey, that wouldn't be necessary at all.

I should mention however, that this concern isn't very big at all. It just results in a certain uneasiness (thanks, aatu) I wanted to reduce, which then ended in this sometimes tedious, sometimes interesting dispute.

Oh, and before I forget, thx vcoleiro. It's really soothing to have a stream of reason of (this is subjective, of course) waterlike clearness in this sometimes irritating debate.

 

[bukkit]

I know what they want to hear, and as I said there is no indication that it will happen (in this context) So please don't let me die dumb, if he has given up demanding the answer why is this thread still alive ?

Essentially because of WizardStan - and you!

In the beginning I was believing in receiving a simple statement like "Nono, if P2 doesn't happen we give you something else, we just haven't thought about that". As long as I was waiting for an answer like this, I had to dispute claims by people not in the know of Craigs plans that I was asking for something entirely different, to avoid confusion. Then it became an attempt to just try to get people to stay out of the way of this thread, to give Craig an opportunity to divert the not very uncommon notion, the option "waiting for P2" equalled "giving money away".

But people just didn't stay out of this, no matter how nicely I asked. Meanwhile I had given up hope, in fact. This thread has become an interesting example of community dynamics, communication in a (for me) foreign language, semantics of the term "fear", intrinsic logic, arguing just shy of the definition of "insult", trying to be calm in a shitstorm. I see it as an exercise, really. I sometimes envy the (I believe) US school system for their inclusion of the discipline of debate in their terms. It's kind of rotten in the real world, equalling slander and cheap rhethoric too often, but in it's original sense (in dialectics) - exercising logic and rhethoric to arrive at something approaching truth - I find it fascinating.

Well, that, and I'm stubborn.