Pandora 2 probability debate

[Neelix]

That can't really be decided until the outcome of the surveys has been analysed.  The purpose of the survey is to collect the information needed to plan a course of action. My impression is that the only binding aspect of this survey is the authorisation to provide personal details to ED for the purposes of order fulfilment.

- Neelix

 

 

[bukkit]

Everyone's welcome to there opinion, I can understand those that elect to wait.  It just doesn't make sense to me for the reasons I have given. Basically I thought we were trying to clear the debt/pre-orders not leave that debt hang around.  I'd hate to see in 2 years time they try and get a P2 off the ground and already there is a 100 pre-order debt to cater for.  For one, they will hyave to inflate the price to pay for those who opted for a P2, which directly effects the success chance of the P2.  Anyway each to their own , as I said, I can certainly understand your opposite viewpoint in wanting to wait for one.

Same here, I get what you're aiming at and you're entitled to your opinion just as well. But I don't actually see it as putting a debt into a new project. What I'm factually doing is extending an existing zero interest credit line into a future project, no deadline, no questions asked (well, not many at least). While it's true it is a debt, it's usually not something a clever business man would not find very yummy. You know, clearing a debt feels good for you and me, no obligations anymore and such, but businesspeople have and should have a different view on those things. And not being forced to clear that debt now should free them earlier for new projects.
You also might remember how what initially crushed Craigxs plans was not the debt hanging around. What did take every space to breathe and move was people who demanded fulfillment of their contract or money back right now. And that's exactly the pressure I don't want to put on those people.

Third: Craigx is totally free not to grant this wish and give me my ordered Pandora instead if that should be better for him. There is no way I can enforce my preference if he decides to just fulfill my contract.

For all these reasons I think there is truly nothing at all wrong with opting for waiting for P2.

Neelix mentioned that opting for a P2 means those people are willing to wait generally, I hope that's true.  Because in my mind, at least some people would have traded the negative of having to wait, for the benefit of getting a P2 - ie that's a lot different than being happy to wait - it's a trade off. But anyway, lets see what happens , it probably doesn't matter anyway if only a few opt for it (as it seems )

True, and a very closely related point (other people getting their Pwhatevers earlier if I opt for waiting) was also part of my line of thought, as you'll find in my post.

What if the P2 never happens, what happens to the money these people paid in the first place? This was not clear in the email message.

Exactly my question. And I can't answer the poll without knowing the answer to it, either.

 

[vcoleiro1]

Hasn't all the money paid by pre-orders gone , ie there is zero left.  I suppose though , you guys mean the debt of that money owed to you, if that makes any sense.

Edit :  Just remember Bukkit , that in all likely hood, opting for a P2 will increase Craigs debt.  Why, because it is more than likely a P2 will cost more to make than a P1.

 

[ekianjo]

That can't really be decided until the outcome of the surveys has been analysed.  The purpose of the survey is to collect the information needed to plan a course of action. 


- Neelix

Isnt the purpose of the survey supposed to provide realistic options as well? I mean, do you really want it to look like it was not well thought of? 

Besides, its not because people WANT an option that this option is on the table, as far as I know. If the survey was abou honoring a trip, the options sound like: 1) pay more and get a 5 star hotel upgrade, 2) wait until we can honor your order, 3) wait a bit more and we offer you a trip to the Moon!!

The trip to the Moon is very, very unlikely, unfortunately, and it's not very nice to give people false hope (again...). So, do you guys really want that option in there?

 

[bukkit]

Edit :  Just remember Bukkit , that in all likely hood, opting for a P2 will increase Craigs debt.  Why, because it is more than likely a P2 will cost more to make than a P1.

No, it would probably reduce it, and independent of if it costs more or less.You probably know the P1 was more expensive than the money we fronted for it. Effectively, they're making a loss. Since I already explained I would expect to pay the difference between the money I fronted and the P2 retail price, let's make an example.

P1: Money Paid 300,-

Cost: 400,-

Craigs situation: 300,- debt or 100,- loss if he gives me a P1

P2 Price: 400,-

P2 cost: 300,-

I don't get a P2: Still 300,- debt

I get a P2 and pay 100,-: 100,- gain for Craig and a 300,- credit with no interest for ~5 years paid back

 

[Neelix]

Isnt the purpose of the survey supposed to provide realistic options as well?

To an extent yes,  but it's really a 3 phase process.

Phase 1 - Information Gathering: Find out what the customers want.  - That's what this survey is all about.

Phase 2 - Analysis and planning: Use that information to plan out how to best and most efficient way to satisfy as many customers as possible - keeping in mind that it may not be possible to please everyone.

Phase 3 - Action:  Present the customers with what options are actually available and let them choose how to proceed.

We're not at phase 3 yet.  No-one is being asked to make a firm commitment one way or another at this stage,  but ED and Craig do need to know what options the customers are interested in,  and people have expressed an interest in that option, so it does make some sense to include it in the phase 1 survey.

- Neelix

 

[vcoleiro1]

Bukkit, Cost of a P1 is about 270 Euro, cost of a P2 is likely to be much more.


You can say you will pay the difference and thus it won't cost more, but will others that opted for a P2 pay the difference?. Do you see what I'm saying


Anyway, I don't want to turn this thread negative, so I'll say no more on this.

 

[PokeParadox]

Isnt the purpose of the survey supposed to provide realistic options as well?

To an extent yes,  but it's really a 3 phase process.

Phase 1 - Information Gathering: Find out what the customers want.  - That's what this survey is all about.

Phase 2 - Analysis and planning: Use that information to plan out how to best and most efficient way to satisfy as many customers as possible - keeping in mind that it may not be possible to please everyone.

Phase 3 - Action:  Present the customers with what options are actually available and let them choose how to proceed.

We're not at phase 3 yet.  No-one is being asked to make a firm commitment one way or another at this stage,  but ED and Craig do need to know what options the customers are interested in,  and people have expressed an interest in that option, so it does make some sense to include it in the phase 1 survey.

- Neelix

QFT - This essentially sums up what is happening - The survey is "just" a survey to formulate a contingency plan.

 

[xcen]

wow a lot of people are stuck up with their irrelevant opinion... 

People asked for an option that says "don't worry about me for now, put the money as a deposit for a future project, if it ever happens"

then people on the forums think this means "give me a pandora 2 for the price of a pandora 1?" how do you come up with this?

If you don't like the option, don't select it.... do you really think 200 people will opt for that? come on

 

[bukkit]

Bukkit, Cost of a P1 is about 270 Euro, cost of a P2 is likely to be much more.

You can say you will pay the difference and thus it won't cost more, but will others that opted for a P2 pay the difference?. Do you see what I'm saying

Anyway, I don't want to turn this thread negative, so I'll say no more on this.

Alright. So, essentially, it all hinges on the answers to those questions:
- Does "I wait for a P2" mean: I get a P2 for the price I paid for the P1? Or: I pay the difference when I get a P2?

- What do I get if there is no P2?

Those questions should be answered, then.

 

[Neelix]

Alright. So, essentially, it all hinges on the answers to those questions:

- Does "I wait for a P2" mean: I get a P2 for the price I paid for the P1? Or: I pay the difference when I get a P2?

- What do I get if there is no P2?

Those questions should be answered, then.

 If the option becomes a reality I'm sure that they will be.   At the moment though, this survey question is just an expression of interest in the option.

 

[Binky]

What If ED orchestrates a P2 without Craig's involvement?

 

[Franko]

I guess that so long as this is mostly a "survey" and just a gauge on how best to approach things, then this "option" isn't hurting anyone - yet.  Initially I was shocked that the option was even there, but as Craig has pointed, people were at least interested in what would happen if preorderers were to "let their money ride".  It's a gamble for sure, all the way around.  I can potentially see another pitfall though, if the current OP Team officially endorses this option for a lot of customers.  What if we've cleared all of the queues and the OP Team (whomever is left & willing to try a run at a Pandora2) is ready to launch the next project?  I'm envisioning a Kickstarter campaign at this point.  What happens when the new project is already "in the red"?  Starting out down $300+ per preorder - left over from the original Pandora project?  What would Kickstarter say?  How would that be handled?  That's another thing to consider and there will be other problems.  I'm against rolling over "debt" - if it's too big, then the dreams of the Pandora2 might be squashed.  I love my unit, but I'm also excited in the possibility in a successor.  This option jeopardizes that possibility in my mind.  Just my take on things...I could be wrong (and worrying about nothing)...   :unsure:

 

[Neelix]

I can think of a couple of ways that it can be dealt with. 

The most simple that comes to mind would be to add a store credit in the dragon box shop coupled with an notification when the product becomes available.   The store credit settles the 'debt' and if the user changes their mind they can always put it towards something else.

This of course is only an example of one way to deal with the issue. I make no claims as to the viability of such a scheme.

To be honest,  I think you do ED a disservice to speculate on the non-viability of a business plan he hasn't even had the opportunity to formulate yet.  ED has proven himself capable of producing a viable business plan. That the production process is currently running smoothly is a testament to that.   How about we give him a chance to create and present his plan before tearing it apart for something you assume it might contain?

- Neelix

 

[Franko]

I can think of a couple of ways that it can be dealt with. 

The most simple that comes to mind would be to add a store credit in the dragon box shop coupled with an notification when the product becomes available.   The store credit settles the 'debt' and if the user changes their mind they can always put it towards something else.

This of course is only an example of one way to deal with the issue. I make no claims as to the viability of such a scheme.

To be honest,  I think you do ED a disservice to speculate on the non-viability of a business plan he hasn't even had the opportunity to formulate yet.  ED has proven himself capable of producing a viable business plan. That the production process is currently running smoothly is a testament to that.   How about we give him a chance to create and present his plan before tearing it apart for something you assume it might contain?

- Neelix

Perhaps you're right.  My intention isn't to do anyone a disservice here (Ed or Craig or anyone else), but perhaps that is what some people will perceive that I'm doing .  There is no motive in that approach from me, I can assure you.  I really like the openness of this product and these forums - I was just wondering if this option, the "rolling over of debt to a future project" is actually adopted, what could it mean to the viability of a future product?  Good planning is good business....and I'm personally, exceptionally impressed and encouraged with what ED has done.  There's no question that ED and his investors SAVED this product...and I'm very grateful.  I'm loving my device.  My intention isn't to "tear apart" a business plan....which probably doesn't exist yet in a final form.  I'm still assuming that this is just a survey and one hasn't been formulated yet, but I somehow felt compelled to voice my opinion on the matter anyway (just as vcoliero and others have).  I'm done questioning the potential ramifications of a (seemingly dubious option to me) upon on a survey that currently has no affect upon me personally.  Thanks for feedback on my last post, Neelix.

 

[ShleeDragon]

Give the preorders what they paid for.... you'll need to FIND the money to paid for the units in the future instead of just working off the debt as it is now.

 

[ekianjo]

What If ED orchestrates a P2 without Craig's involvement?

Yeah, this remains possible  Does anyone need Craig for a P2 ?

 

[Franko]

Please, I implore you, let's not try to stir up anymore doubt and speculation on this thread.  Let's let this survey play out and hopefully the OP Team will divulge some results to us soon.  It's detrimental to the entire project moving forward if we publicly "take sides" again...this is not the time for diversive words - Neelix is probably right on this one.  We all have questions...but let us be patient - please?    

I'm thinking about the success of the Pandora and hopefully Pandora2 here (knocks on chinese plastic).  Seems a bit sturdier.

 

[craigix]

What If ED orchestrates a P2 without Craig's involvement?

Yeah, this remains possible  Does anyone need Craig for a P2 ?

Yeah, I only paid for the design, the creation, the prototyping, the moulds, the production. (I remortgaged my house to pay for all this, a debt, which I was reminded about yesterday, is currently £176,000)

I only negotiated the use of the OMAP3 when it was super NDA, inc visiting TI in Texas with Mweston, having numerous lunches in the UK to get the databooks, sharing with them and allowing them to use our tech for promotion... 

I only designed the Pandora look, how it should work, the layout etc. started this whole thing rolling.

Build up publicity and sales, reviews and features all over the net and in print.

I only instigated the creation of this forum (against many peoples wishes).

Yeah, I guess I did nothing. 

Then you can bring in all the work done by Mweston, DaveC, Fatih..

I guess you may not have even heard of them.

It must be a strange world you see.

Oh and PS Me, Mweston and DaveC are 'only' working on the iCP2 - the basis of a P2, which is being done as 1 project to save a fortune - and it just entered production.

 

[Balakovo]

Craig You forgot to mention your cool and funny videos on youtube!