No Pandora By Christmas

[OrR]

A few points about the original post:
1. Cash. Craig is the only seller who had to refund. He is also probably the biggest but there are also ED, the American place etc. It was already mentioned that ED has payed for urgent stuff and that there haven't been cash flow problems, yet.
2. Where do you get the 5000 boards a month ratio from? They don't have their own factory but are rather booking a production line for a few days as I understood it. If necessary, I'd imagine the maximum possible production rate could be much higher.
3. The LCDs could be a problem or they could not be, that is really up to the seller and somewhat scary to think about. Cases and especially the keypads should be ready very quickly once finalized, though.

Still, I agree that the probability of ready Pandoras being delivered before christmas is very low. If everything works out and they ship the first assembled devices out as soon as possible instead of first assembling everything and then shipping, a few people might just get it before, though. Not likely.

 

[sterling976]

2. Where do you get the 5000 boards a month ratio from? They don't have their own factory but are rather booking a production line for a few days as I understood it. If necessary, I'd imagine the maximum possible production rate could be much higher.

There's a post from one of the devs that gives that number. If I can find it quickly, I'll edit this post with the link.


Edit:
Ah.. here's the link.

 

[Chip]

OK, taking a look at the top two pinned threads along with the information we've had given to us in miscellaneous posts around the place, I think we either know or can assume the following:

1. OpenPandora lacks (substantial) cash inhand: This fact stems from a small deductive chain along the lines of:Before being told about even more reorders being necessary, Chip mentioned that all but around 25% of customers needed to be refunded and reorder. So let us assume that only 75% of original orders needed to be redone (ignoring later messages on the subject). Let us assume (conservatively) that 80% of orders were via credit card.
2. The Credit Card re-order pages are not up. Let us assume that 60-70% of the refunded customers are desiring to use the credit card to pay for it again (a very conservative estimate given the security inherent in credit card orders & the nervousness around the boards atm).
3. OpenPandora was going to break even on the first batch of 4000 units. This is not a guess but word from OpenPandora themselves.

Given the above information one can deduce that there is ~1500 people still to put down their money, or around US$500,000 not in OpenPandora coffers that otherwise would be.QUOTE
( (4000 x 80% [credit card orders]) x 75% [people needing to reorder]) x 65% [people ordering via credit card again]) = 1560 orders
1560 x US$330 [order price] = US$514,800 outstanding

With this much short - OpenPandora still needs to order parts, handle manufacturing/labor costs, etc - bloody tight I think![*]Manufacturing Quality/Speed: Not too long ago we were informed that the manufacturing quality for the boards was not quite there yet. I think the number was 25% bad boards coming out the end of the pipeline. Let us assume they have (just) fixed that - that means manufacturing will start in earnest... at 5000 boards a month.
[*]LCD & Case Quantities: LCD's were coming in slowly and we have not yet heard about a change in this trend. The case & keyboards were only recently finalized (though I can't be 100% sure on the case - this is an assumption in OpenPandora's favor).
[*]It's two weeks until Christmas: For some parts of the world - you need a week/two weeks to be sure of a delivery.
Given the above facts, we have the following deductions:

1. OpenPandora simply does not have the boards ready (LCD shortage, case/keyboard production, 5000/mth board production rate)
2. OpenPandora cannot afford to pay for all boards right now (money on hand, lack of reorder pages)
3. OpenPandora simply doesn't have time (reorder pages, 5000/mth board production rate, shipping time)

Just a few corrections:

Even if every single CC customer decided not to reorder, we still have the money and resources to make the 2000-or-so (according to Craig) Pandoras that are already paid for. As I've tried to make clear in past posts, the bank problem is a nuisance, but it does not put the entire project at risk. We're losing money on this batch no matter what, but that's not really a problem. We're in this for the long haul. Future batches will pay back all shortfalls from this batch, even if half the orders disappear.

Assuming the manufacturer is not flat-out lying to us again, we should have ~ 2000 LCD panels by Christmas. Obviously that doesn't mean we will have 2000 Pandoras made and shipped by then, but we should shortly thereafter.

The entire batch of 4000 cases could be spat out in a matter of days. The important thing is to make sure the molds are exactly right before doing this run, otherwise they will be useless. The keypad mat is on it's way to Craig, and if everything works out, the mats and the cases will go into full production.


We may not send any Pandoras out the door in time for Christmas, but there is still a good chance that some will ship before the end of the year. It's looking very good to have every first batch Pandora shipped before the end of January.

Sure, other problems might crop up that may delay things farther. It's certainly happened before. But based on everything we know right now, that's how it looks.

 

[mazza558]

Just a few corrections:

Even if every single CC customer decided not to reorder, we still have the money and resources to make the 2000-or-so (according to Craig) Pandoras that are already paid for. As I've tried to make clear in past posts, the bank problem is a nuisance, but it does not put the entire project at risk. We're losing money on this batch no matter what, but that's not really a problem. We're in this for the long haul. Future batches will pay back all shortfalls from this batch, even if half the orders disappear.

Assuming the manufacturer is not flat-out lying to us again, we should have ~ 2000 LCD panels by Christmas. Obviously that doesn't mean we will have 2000 Pandoras made and shipped by then, but we should shortly thereafter.

The entire batch of 4000 cases could be spat out in a matter of days. The important thing is to make sure the molds are exactly right before doing this run, otherwise they will be useless. The keypad mat is on it's way to Craig, and if everything works out, the mats and the cases will go into full production.

We may not send any Pandoras out the door in time for Christmas, but there is still a good chance that some will ship before the end of the year. It's looking very good to have every first batch Pandora shipped before the end of January.

Sure, other problems might crop up that may delay things farther. It's certainly happened before. But based on everything we know right now, that's how it looks.




That's good to know - but there are still a few things which might cause further delays:

- Software - Of course, most people can't see the top-secret development forum, but what we've seen so far shows lots of work to be done. Gmenu could be nearly finished, but we don't know at the moment. We also haven't seen many native apps running other than Matchbox, Gmenu and the Desktop Recorder thingy.

- Packaging - Will the team be able to get packaging sorted in time for this late '08/early '09 release date?

 

[Chip]

That's good to know - but there are still a few things which might cause further delays:
I can all but guarantee that nothing will be held up due to software. We'll have something ready by the time the first units ship. It may not be perfect, but you'll be able to load up whatever software is already available on the file archive and go.

I can absolutely guarantee that nothing will be held up due to packaging. There probably isn't going to be any fancy packaging for the first batch. As long as Fedex still gives out free boxes, we're set.

 

[dinglebery]

just wondering i know theres been talk here in the us that some of the lcd and hdtv maufactures getting sued for creating shortages of parts to drive up price .. there is supossed to be some sort of "reperations" after january first does that affect the LCd's that OP is useing ?


btw from my interpritations (witch may be entirely wrong) its supposed to be a good thing theyed be available cheaper, ect ect

 

[mali]

Thanks for the update Chip. Very promising

 

[jdh2550]

It's looking very good to have every first batch Pandora shipped before the end of January.

Hmmm, I really want to believe this! I really, really do. Must hope for the best...

Oh, hang on a sec - he didn't mention which year!

 

[NickLoTurco]

Yeah thanks chip you git! Just when I'd gotten used to the idea that I definitely wouldn't get my hands on one before crimbo, there you go and raise my hopes again! Damn you..........

I'm only excited as I know I'm in the first 200........even though there will be almost nothing to use on it, I'd love one delivered on the 24th, now that would be sweet.

 

[azurege]

I'll be happy if I am playing with mine by my birthday in March

Pandora + full speed Amiga emulation + March = a happy bunny :blink:

 

[emcp]

i would be very happy if i received mines, before the 7th of January, so i can get some coding done, before going back to school when ill have little to no time

but to me thats still optimistic, i had my laptop opened on the website, kept on refreshing and refreshing, until the news came that you can preorder, went to the page and then decided not to order, it wasnt until later that day (4pm) i decided to order, just hope im in the 2000, orders, i believe i may just be outside that, my luck lol

anyway yeah before January ends, and ill be ok, disspointed but ok, after that ill be leaning on being pissed off lol

 

[BenTolputt]

Thanks for the details, Chip. That really should be made into a "pinned" update as that would settle a few people, I think.

For the record - I wasn't trying to prove or show the Pandora project is a bust, just pointing out the impracticalities of expecting one before Christmas. It's good to see that even with your 'corrections', it still makes no sense to expect anything before January.

That said, have you heard back on the "All Refunds Sent" being negated by emails a week later issue and/or do you know who I should contact regarding unavailable delivery dates. Mid/late January my entire family is not going to be within 400Km of home - making it hard to accept delivery of the Pandora in mid-January (something that appears likely given your post).

 

[Klaus]

Batch 1 delivered through January... Maybe I can get one from the 2nd batch to celebrate St. Tib's Day...

:rolleyes: 2009 is not a leap year...

 

[j.pickens]

Mid/late January my entire family is not going to be within 400Km of home - making it hard to accept delivery of the Pandora in mid-January (something that appears likely given your post).

I would call Openpandora Ltd. directly.
They surely will put a note in your account file to prevent delivery during your absence.
My direct dealings with them by email and telephone have been thorough and professional.

Open Pandora Ltd.
+44 191 243 2253

From the US, dial 011 44 191 243 2253

 

[Prometheus]

and/or do you know who I should contact regarding unavailable delivery dates. Mid/late January my entire family is not going to be within 400Km of home - making it hard to accept delivery of the Pandora in mid-January (something that appears likely given your post).

I hope you don't mind me giving an answer to this.

Way back in 2004, when I imported my first Nintendo DS, I purchased it from GBAX, and was away on a vacation during the first week of shipping - this was explained to them, and they were happy to wait until I returned before they sent it out. If that's who you're dealing with (from what I gather from your posts, it appears so ), you just need to get in touch with them and explain the circumstances - I'm sure they'll sort everything out for you.

EDIT: Gah, I was too slow! :lol: Also, to clarify, for the want of not causing any confusion, GBAX is Craig's other site.

 

[CandidStan]

OK, taking a look at the top two pinned threads along with the information we've had given to us in miscellaneous posts around the place, I think we either know or can assume the following:

1. OpenPandora lacks (substantial) cash inhand: This fact stems from a small deductive chain along the lines of:Before being told about even more reorders being necessary, Chip mentioned that all but around 25% of customers needed to be refunded and reorder. So let us assume that only 75% of original orders needed to be redone (ignoring later messages on the subject). Let us assume (conservatively) that 80% of orders were via credit card.
2. The Credit Card re-order pages are not up. Let us assume that 60-70% of the refunded customers are desiring to use the credit card to pay for it again (a very conservative estimate given the security inherent in credit card orders & the nervousness around the boards atm).
3. OpenPandora was going to break even on the first batch of 4000 units. This is not a guess but word from OpenPandora themselves.

Given the above information one can deduce that there is ~1500 people still to put down their money, or around US$500,000 not in OpenPandora coffers that otherwise would be.QUOTE
( (4000 x 80% [credit card orders]) x 75% [people needing to reorder]) x 65% [people ordering via credit card again]) = 1560 orders
1560 x US$330 [order price] = US$514,800 outstanding

With this much short - OpenPandora still needs to order parts, handle manufacturing/labor costs, etc - bloody tight I think![*]Manufacturing Quality/Speed: Not too long ago we were informed that the manufacturing quality for the boards was not quite there yet. I think the number was 25% bad boards coming out the end of the pipeline. Let us assume they have (just) fixed that - that means manufacturing will start in earnest... at 5000 boards a month.
[*]LCD & Case Quantities: LCD's were coming in slowly and we have not yet heard about a change in this trend. The case & keyboards were only recently finalized (though I can't be 100% sure on the case - this is an assumption in OpenPandora's favor).
[*]It's two weeks until Christmas: For some parts of the world - you need a week/two weeks to be sure of a delivery.
Given the above facts, we have the following deductions:

1. OpenPandora simply does not have the boards ready (LCD shortage, case/keyboard production, 5000/mth board production rate)
2. OpenPandora cannot afford to pay for all boards right now (money on hand, lack of reorder pages)
3. OpenPandora simply doesn't have time (reorder pages, 5000/mth board production rate, shipping time)

Just a few corrections:

Even if every single CC customer decided not to reorder, we still have the money and resources to make the 2000-or-so (according to Craig) Pandoras that are already paid for. As I've tried to make clear in past posts, the bank problem is a nuisance, but it does not put the entire project at risk. We're losing money on this batch no matter what, but that's not really a problem. We're in this for the long haul. Future batches will pay back all shortfalls from this batch, even if half the orders disappear.

Assuming the manufacturer is not flat-out lying to us again, we should have ~ 2000 LCD panels by Christmas. Obviously that doesn't mean we will have 2000 Pandoras made and shipped by then, but we should shortly thereafter.

The entire batch of 4000 cases could be spat out in a matter of days. The important thing is to make sure the molds are exactly right before doing this run, otherwise they will be useless. The keypad mat is on it's way to Craig, and if everything works out, the mats and the cases will go into full production.


We may not send any Pandoras out the door in time for Christmas, but there is still a good chance that some will ship before the end of the year. It's looking very good to have every first batch Pandora shipped before the end of January.

Sure, other problems might crop up that may delay things farther. It's certainly happened before. But based on everything we know right now, that's how it looks.


That's all well and good for first batch order-ers, but what about second batch preorders? I've heard some buzz a few months ago about it being in late December, can we count on this? And when will the second batch Pandoras be expected to be delivered?

 

[mali]

Don't take the second step before the first

 

[Polossatik]

May I suggest to the <insert your favorite god/higher power here> believers to take this on a other forum?
thank you. <_<

Now on topic, thank you for the update and I wish to the whole pandora team a very nice year ending.

Frankly, there is nothing better (even not a super-de-luxe souped up omap3 handheld device) then a nice time with people you love.

amen.

 

[Chip]

Off topic nonsense has been fed to the wolves. Merry Christmas.

 

[dinglebery]

Frankly, there is nothing better (even not a super-de-luxe souped up omap3 handheld device) then a nice time with people you love.




sure there is when i can tell her theres the door i dont need your services any more/! :lol:

if i had to spend more than a weekend with my family ide go seriously nuts (somehow my mother (a hippy, fell in love with a biker had a few kids ect got seperated , met my step dad (recently divorced right wing catholic who had kids of his own) and managed to pop out 2 more .. needless to say polotics or religion is not up for discussion over holiday dinner! :>

edit so its on topic .. yea we all know its not comming but wishing the best (insert end year holiday of choice here) with plenty of food and high proof alcohol of your choice to all !!