BenTolputt
Member
- Joined
- May 5, 2008
- Messages
- 118
OK, taking a look at the top two pinned threads along with the information we've had given to us in miscellaneous posts around the place, I think we either know or can assume the following:
( (4000 x 80% [credit card orders]) x 75% [people needing to reorder]) x 65% [people ordering via credit card again]) = 1560 orders
1560 x US$330 [order price] = US$514,800 outstanding
With this much short - OpenPandora still needs to order parts, handle manufacturing/labor costs, etc - bloody tight I think![*]Manufacturing Quality/Speed: Not too long ago we were informed that the manufacturing quality for the boards was not quite there yet. I think the number was 25% bad boards coming out the end of the pipeline. Let us assume they have (just) fixed that - that means manufacturing will start in earnest... at 5000 boards a month.
[*]LCD & Case Quantities: LCD's were coming in slowly and we have not yet heard about a change in this trend. The case & keyboards were only recently finalized (though I can't be 100% sure on the case - this is an assumption in OpenPandora's favor).
[*]It's two weeks until Christmas: For some parts of the world - you need a week/two weeks to be sure of a delivery.
Given the above facts, we have the following deductions:
And that ignores the fact that drivers and so on are not yet ready (though I doubt I'm alone in being OK with these coming at a later date if I can use even a limited Pandora Christmas morning!)
On that subject - do I bug the order people or someone else about the inability to accept delivery in mid-January. I have a family holiday planned so will not be able to accept delivery in the possible event it comes at that time...
Edit: People have corrected the name of company involved... logic still stands
- OpenPandora lacks (substantial) cash inhand: This fact stems from a small deductive chain along the lines of:Before being told about even more reorders being necessary, Chip mentioned that all but around 25% of customers needed to be refunded and reorder. So let us assume that only 75% of original orders needed to be redone (ignoring later messages on the subject). Let us assume (conservatively) that 80% of orders were via credit card.
- The Credit Card re-order pages are not up. Let us assume that 60-70% of the refunded customers are desiring to use the credit card to pay for it again (a very conservative estimate given the security inherent in credit card orders & the nervousness around the boards atm).
- OpenPandora was going to break even on the first batch of 4000 units. This is not a guess but word from OpenPandora themselves.
( (4000 x 80% [credit card orders]) x 75% [people needing to reorder]) x 65% [people ordering via credit card again]) = 1560 orders
1560 x US$330 [order price] = US$514,800 outstanding
With this much short - OpenPandora still needs to order parts, handle manufacturing/labor costs, etc - bloody tight I think![*]Manufacturing Quality/Speed: Not too long ago we were informed that the manufacturing quality for the boards was not quite there yet. I think the number was 25% bad boards coming out the end of the pipeline. Let us assume they have (just) fixed that - that means manufacturing will start in earnest... at 5000 boards a month.
[*]LCD & Case Quantities: LCD's were coming in slowly and we have not yet heard about a change in this trend. The case & keyboards were only recently finalized (though I can't be 100% sure on the case - this is an assumption in OpenPandora's favor).
[*]It's two weeks until Christmas: For some parts of the world - you need a week/two weeks to be sure of a delivery.
Given the above facts, we have the following deductions:
- OpenPandora simply does not have the boards ready (LCD shortage, case/keyboard production, 5000/mth board production rate)
- OpenPandora cannot afford to pay for all boards right now (money on hand, lack of reorder pages)
- OpenPandora simply doesn't have time (reorder pages, 5000/mth board production rate, shipping time)
And that ignores the fact that drivers and so on are not yet ready (though I doubt I'm alone in being OK with these coming at a later date if I can use even a limited Pandora Christmas morning!)
On that subject - do I bug the order people or someone else about the inability to accept delivery in mid-January. I have a family holiday planned so will not be able to accept delivery in the possible event it comes at that time...
Edit: People have corrected the name of company involved... logic still stands