I think as I've said before, that the Switch will do well .
It will do well IMO largely based on the handheld market it will capture . Let's face it, there is little competition in that market by any major company. Plus they have something that's probably the most powerful handheld console ever.
I expect them to sell shit tons of them . I also expect that eventually the 3DS will be phased out
While I think it will do better than the Wii U(maybe), I don't see it getting anywhere near the 3DS market. While I agree it is more portable than some think it is as well, it's still console priced. Almost $400 with a game, accessories that are in Apple price territory, and games that are console priced as well($40-60), when handheld games are far cheaper($20-40). This is the same reason I don't see 3rd party support coming over either.
A 2DS or even 3DS are very attractive to parents, as they can be had cheap, and offer somewhat cheap games. When that option is no longer around, within a year or two. That same market isn't going to look at the NS, and say "this is nice, I'll replace my 3DS with this". They will see an expensive console along side the ONE/PS4, or they will see an expensive handheld over what was there before, or they will see an expensive tablet, that plays even more expensive games. That casual market can get a $99 tablet that will do almost everything, and also play free to $5 games, and it's one and done.
Yeah, I know people will say parents buy their children expensive phones and other devices, but those things cover a wide range of needs. The NS doesn't even have a web browser. Maybe it does in 2 years, maybe it doesn't. I personally don't see this filling the void left in their handheld market when the 3DS goes, especially considering it is being promoted as a "console" that you can take on the go.
I think the switch is more portable than people think. I just saw a video today where the reviewer took the joycons off, put them in one one pocket and the Switch tablet in his other pocket no problem.
As for the 3DS continuing. For a while , like a year or two maybe, it will, then no I'd say. I think the switch will be very successful, and there just isn't room to support two portables. I don't think the market for the 3DS will be big enough at that stage to make it viable anymore.
"N" unified their handheld and console R&D departments a few years ago, so I expect the 2DS/3DS to end probably by years end, as "N" just can't maintain 2 system(and never really could), and based on things like unifying divisions, they don't plan to. I do think maybe down the road, we will see a NS Mini, or an NS that is more portable, cheaper priced, but that will still play the NS software. How that will work out in the end, remains to be seen.
When asked about the future of their handheld specific market, they continue to tiptoe around the questions, with typical double speak, and PR spin answers. Even the new boss has stated the 3DS was a very popular brand, and that he would like to see something similar continued in the future, but no committed answers stating it will happen. Most fans think it will all depend on how well the NS does. If it goes down the Wii U road, we will probable see a 4DS or something. But if it does well, the NS will become the new all-in-one device, and that will be like Nvidia's shield line, where they offer certain devices for certain needs, at different price ranges.
Chris