COVID-19 / Coronavirus Pandemic


docbroke

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@docbroke Funny you say town, I think it's a city already (Rotterdam 651.376, The Hague 547.757 and Amsterdam >800.000 are only twice as big). Do you think the explosion in cases started after the festivals (there is one week where India has lots of celebrations, although not everybody celebrates all of them)
Cases started to rise in March. In January/February we only had 1-2 bad occupied in covid wards ( now it is about 400 with more patients waiting to get admission). This rise may be caused by mix of combined effect of things,
1. Immergence of new strains of the virus
2. Elections in some of the states. Even with death tolls rising, elections were held in west bengal, while complete/partial lockdowns, closed schools, limitied gatherings were in-effect in other states. Hundred-thousands of people gathered in election ralleys without masks in front of PM, homeminister, chiefminister etc.
3. Festivals, ( you may have seen reports of kumbh-mela in haridvar, where about 900 thousand people took dip in holy river ), this was allowed as rulling party favors hindus, and this was one of the biggest hindu festival gathering. PM remained nearly silent about this and election ralleys while talking about covid emergency with grim face.
4. India-England cricket series ( first few test matches were played with 50% ground capacity, but after that 100% ground capacity was used for two one-day matches. Reason being that ground in Ahmedabad was dream project of PM, so he probable wanted inauguration with full glory, for worlds biggest cricket ground. However this was the exact time when cases were rising, and after getting backlashes on social media later matches were played with empty ground)
 
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netcat

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There is no point in discussing numbers. They are totally wrong.
Right.

What I have generally been doing is looking at the shapes of curves, mostly deaths, and where the inflection points lie in relation to policy changes or events (eg start of a wave).

The fundamental question I am asking is: will the restrictions tighten or ease? Ie: is the current approach working?

The assumption here is that the methodology and reporting is somewhat consistent over time within a single country. I have statistical proof that some countries cook their figures, for example the Vatican.
 
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Phlyra

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Cases started to rise in March. In January/February we only had 1-2 bad occupied in covid wards ( now it is about 400 with more patients waiting to get admission). This rise may be caused by mix of combined effect of things,
1. Immergence of new strains of the virus
2. Elections in some of the states. Even with death tolls rising, elections were held in west bengal, while complete/partial lockdowns, closed schools, limitied gatherings were in-effect in other states. Hundred-thousands of people gathered in election ralleys without masks in front of PM, homeminister, chiefminister etc.
3. Festivals, ( you may have seen reports of kumbh-mela in haridvar, where about 900 thousand people took dip in holy river ), this was allowed as rulling party favors hindus, and this was one of the biggest hindu festival gathering. PM remained nearly silent about this and election ralleys while talking about covid emergency with grim face.
4. India-England cricket series ( first few test matches were played with 50% ground capacity, but after that 100% ground capacity was used for two one-day matches. Reason being that ground in Ahmedabad was dream project of PM, so he probable wanted inauguration with full glory, for worlds biggest cricket ground. However this was the exact time when cases were rising, and after getting backlashes on social media later matches were played with empty ground)
Is this an accurate picture, @docbroke https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...umanity-arundhati-roy-india-covid-catastrophe ?
 

docbroke

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Linux-SWAT

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Rofl, our own leaders has been guilty of crime against humanity and mass murder since January 2020, and the worst newspaper in the world aka The Guardian just woke up.
 

JDTAY

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JDTAY

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With the US restricting travel to India, it should be important to note that the Indian double mutant variant has already been found in many US states. Wish I had a map, but just off the top of my head, Texas, California, Nevada, and Michigan.
 

levi

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Fun vaccine news. Anxiety about the J&J vaccine can lead to an adverse reaction, including fainting.


Edit: I especially like the part where it says fainting is over 100 times more common with the vaccine than with the flu shot. Anxiety really is something to worry about, I guess.
Well yes. But the anxiety is almost all caused by the rumours which has been reported in the media aping real news when mere gossip will do.
 

docbroke

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After oxygen, ventilator crisis another big killer in covid hospitals is fire. There are atleast 10-15 incidence of fire occured in India involving covid wards. One occcured last night. Fire in Bharuch
 

JDTAY

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Australia just imposed a criminal penalty on people returning from India. I guess I would be afraid if I were Australia too, given how little natural immunity they've built up. It's not like California where everyone already had COVID-19.
 

levi

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Not any good data that I know of. I recall back mid last year the first or second case of reinfection, the guy that got it was a lot worse off second time round, and personally I'm expecting my second vaccine dose to be harder on my body that the first was (but part of that is just me setting my expectations).
 

ible

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got my second shot yesterday. only a little PITA -- pain in the arm

but now my bloodstream'll finally be able to read Kamala Harris' book
 

JDTAY

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Did anyone see that India's daily new cases dipped by about 10,000 when they reported it 14 hours ago? That's an earlier dip than I was expecting. Usually the numbers continue decelerating into Tuesday, so I wonder if it'll dip even more.
 

JDTAY

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Hmm, they're reporting 368,000 today, an even larger dip than yesterday, like I thought. Gotta wonder if you can trust the numbers though.
 

JDTAY

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COVID-19 hospitalizations dropped pretty sharply in my state over the last three days. The number for today though says 91% of hospitals are reporting. It's usually closer to 96%. The numbers for the last few days tend to change a little bit as time goes on, so I'll be interested to see where they're at tomorrow.
 
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