I mean, when you're talking about hundreds of millions of people getting shots, there are going to be coincidental deaths.
Yes, A very crude way to see it is: assume everyone lives 100 years, then that means that every year 1/100 th of the population would die.
so, every day 1 in 36 500 people would die. There have been 900 000 000 doses given to 500 000 000 people world wide in approximately 120 days.
So 7 500 000 doses and 4 166 666 people per day.
So, if the vaccines would cause no side effects (not death but not immortality either) there would be 7 500 000 / 36 500 = 205 deaths every day of people getting his first or second dose that same day.
There would also be 205 deaths of any other group of 7 500 000 people. For example that's how many people in Honk Kong would die in a day (if they lived 100 years instead of 83).
Or you'd get 4 166 666 / 36 500 = 114 deaths of people receiving their first dose the day they die.
But if you count people expected to die the day they get one dose or the next day, that'd be 410 or (for first dose) 228 deaths. People dying the first week of getting a dose would be 1435 (or 798 for first dose) and so on.
Now, how many of those would get a headline, and that headline collected in a 100 pages document, that's anyone¡s guess.
In fact 100 years is not the average lifespan, and you could look at deaths expected per zone or per age or whatever. Not all days or all territories have the same number of doses given.
And maybe there're more deaths in winter... That'd all give you a higher death expectation.
Whatever you do, if the anecdotes of vaccinated people you collect aren't above that expectation, it doesn't mean a thing. Ok, it means people are not immortal, but we already knew that.
That's why we need :
- all events post vaccination reported
- groups like PRAC from EMA or similar (they may need to be a governmental body to have access to the details for each case) running their statistics and comparing the events seen with the events expected.
What I wonder is why do they concentrate in thrombosis+thrombocitopaenia.
For me that's like picking two symptoms to play with the statistics. They pick those two and they get AZ and J&J above expected cases and Moderna and Pfizer below.
If they picked, I don't know, anaphylaxis with headache they would maybe get Pfizer above expectation and AZ below, or whatever. I guess that's where you plug medical knowledge that I don't have to know what's relevant...
With our limited dataset in the forum all we can say is that
@JDTAY got 2 moderna jabs and nothing seems to have happened.
But
@netcat recently got a first dose of an unknown brand and his avatar changed from a photo of a (crazy?) man to a drawing of a woman. I bet that's above the expectation of spontaneus gender change.
And thus a new conspiracy theory was born...