COVID-19 / Coronavirus Pandemic


λ the β-Redex Reducer

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It seems like the reason my father survived is the vaccine.
If the mRNA injection works that well then you do not need others to take it for you.

In fact, in that case the un-injected are protecting other people by not taking the injection. If someone is injected and gets covid-19 then he would hardly notice the symptoms meaning that he would probably still go outside and thus infect other people. But if someone is un-injected and gets covid-19 then he will be hospitalised or die shortly after, meaning that he cannot infect many people. Thus by not taking the injection the un-injected are protecting other un-injected people. Of course, to injected people this makes no difference because they are protected anyway. They can still transmit covid-19, but will not suffer much from it themselves.
 

Phlyra

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If the mRNA injection works that well then you do not need others to take it for you.

In fact, in that case the un-injected are protecting other people by not taking the injection. If someone is injected and gets covid-19 then he would hardly notice the symptoms meaning that he would probably still go outside and thus infect other people. But if someone is un-injected and gets covid-19 then he will be hospitalised or die shortly after, meaning that he cannot infect many people. Thus by not taking the injection the un-injected are protecting other un-injected people. Of course, to injected people this makes no difference because they are protected anyway. They can still transmit covid-19, but will not suffer much from it themselves.
It doesn’t matter either way if both parties (vaccinated and unvaccinated) behave in irresponsible ways that ensure the spread of Covid-19 and help facilitate escape variants...
 

pyrat

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So..

My parents both just recovered from covid. My father fell, an ambulance was called and they later discovered he and my mother had covid. My father is very weak, but he was basically asymptomatic besides a mild cough. My mother is just fine, thanks for asking. My uncle - my father's brother - passed with covid last year. It seems like the reason my father survived is the vaccine.
Sorry for your uncle, and I hope your parents get fully well soon.

So I question the intellectual foothold of anti-vaxers. A year ago it was acceptable to be sceptical, but now it's time to be practical. You need to revaluate your stance in light of new information. Intellectuals - people who's opinions have value - change their minds by definition.
I understand your view and mostly agree, but I don't think drawing lines and rushing judgments on how people come to their conclusions helps.
I think COVID-19 vaccines prevent deaths and hospitalizations. I'm not very sure how much or for how long they do prevent transmission. And I think they have side effects that are not trivial, but given the alternatives and risks, worth taking.
This is not advice. I'm not telling anyone to vaccinate or not vaccinate. Ask a doctor you trust.
I also think there's overreliance on vaccines and lack of other prevention. People and governments treat them as if they were miraculous and almost burn the infidel.
I try instead to learn from people who come to different conclusions, because they seem to be able to offer me more new arguments and information that those that come the same conclusion as I. Maybe they have less information than me, or maybe they use
logic wrong. But maybe they know something I don't or have thought of sillogisms I have missed.

There is also a practical element. You go along with a joint initiative for the benefit of those around you (aka society). My assumption here is that we all consider avoidable* deaths and illness to be bad.
I try not to assume that others hold different positions because they want society to suffer or people to die. I don't think that's a way to have anyone listen to you.
So at this point, if you are still anti-vax, you are almost certainly:
- out of touch with society. you are inadequately loving (and loved?).
nonsequitur. No vaccine will get you love, society is diverse, unwise people have feelings too.
- counterinellectual. you are stubborn, dogmatic and ignore evidence.
In some cases they may be so. But in many cases I find the government directives and media quite dogmatic and hiding evidence. I understand leaders must react in emergencies and it's not always easy to divulge complex messages, but I'm afraid most policy are more short term economically motivated than public health motivated.
- We are not getting our act together to vaccinate worldwide but we are pressing/forcing/threatening unvaccinated nationals.
- We are relying too much in vaccines to stop pandemic and allowing dangerous mass gatherings, travel and nonesssential activity
- We are ignoring fundamental freedoms because we're afraid of a real pandemic
- We are oversimplifying complex issues
- We are not listening. We're so much into an "us vs them" mentality that we don't stop to get feedback and adapt to others. For example, this article about the chinese "coronavac", the most widely deployed vaccine worldwide that requested authorisation in the UE in May and is still waiting for a response, because the EU bought more Pfizer than we can possibly use. Some survey gives about 56% of people who aren't vaccinated would take a "traditional" (inactivated virus) vaccine, like Coronavac, instead of mRNA or vectorvirus. They may be wrong, but then I'd like an explanation (possibly by EMA in an authorization refusal, I fear it's not so much about the product itself but about who controls the production line QA). If that's not available, well, why not let them take that vaccine? or why not count those who did take it (abroad) ?

Part of the opposition to COVID-19 vaccines may be from misinformation, dogma or irrationality, but part may be from a quite philosophically sound stance against a society that evolves to a mass conforming flow where people lose self agency and need to accept things they don't agree with. That's not exactly a dictature, although it's compatible with it and it might feel close somehow, it's more like an ant colony society or herd culture. Russia has their owns vaccines that are more refused in Russia than in some places abroad, because citizens distrust their government. It's not really about the effects of the vaccine or the coronavirus. It's that informing peopel is no longer useful once they distrust the informer.

But really, I don't think putting people in groups, blaming or forcing things helps at all. It just breaks society and erodes the confidence we'll need for the next round. And it's just as irresponsible as spreading falsehoods on vaccines.
 

pyrat

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In fact, in that case the un-injected are protecting other people by not taking the injection.
Not, they're not. That's a stretch
If someone is injected and gets covid-19 then he would hardly notice the symptoms meaning that he would probably still go outside and thus infect other people.
That's just one factor. There's also the factor that they seem to stay infected a shorter time. But it's still worth keeping in mind: if you're vaccinated, don't be overconfident: distance, mask, hygiene, etc. If you're not vaccinated: well, do that too.
But if someone is un-injected and gets covid-19 then he will be hospitalised or die shortly after, meaning that he cannot infect many people.
He may or may not. COVID-19 is not that easy. You're right that it's more likely than for a vaccinated person. But the infection does not need to be short. He might be asymptomatic and shedding virus or feel a little bad and still do have some contacts, etc.
Thus by not taking the injection the un-injected are protecting other un-injected people. Of course, to injected people this makes no difference because they are protected anyway. They can still transmit covid-19, but will not suffer much from it themselves.
You're exaggerating, and it's not easy to quantify how much what you say may influence the result together with all the other things you don't say.
 

levi

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and giving the virus perfect conditions to evolve with variants that escape the tools currently at our disposal
Most variants of concern thus far have evolved where either governmenents didn't care enough to stop an epidemic, and one happened, or didn't care enough to roll out vaccines soon enough, so let a local epidemic develop.

Your point that I've taken the vaccine earlier than I normally would is fair, although I would counter that the testing program was much more accelerated than previous ones, plus the short term downsides of not taking a vaccine (namely dying being unable to breathe) that was offered to me far outweigh the long term outcomes in my judgement just at the moment.
 
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wdt

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It's really much simpler than that, 98% or 99% of the time propaganda is
being used to sell a LIE, as is the case here
But lots of people, they love that taste of kool-aid
Personally, I hate lies and liars, but if you want to give yourself
a darwin award, go ahead, it will improve human society once all the bodies are buried
I see in Ireland, they let the cat out of the bag, a government poster,
6 boxes with a needle within, 2 checked, so they plan 4 boosters, I wonder how many will survive
 

JDTAY

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Did you guys notice that Israel banned travel from every country on Earth? Are they being overly cautious, or do they know something we don't?
 

FBnil

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So at this point, if you are still anti-vax, you are almost certainly:
- out of touch with society. you are inadequately loving (and loved?).
- counterinellectual. you are stubborn, dogmatic and ignore evidence.
I hear you. And as bad as it is wiping your whole lineage out, and I'm truly sorry for that, there is also the fact that the vax did not bring the promised 94% effectiveness, adjusted to 80 then to 50, 30 and now some say it's negative. So let me throw back that ball of "counter-intellectual and ignoring evidence"

Why my scepticism? Well, we have the fact that infants started dying more, statistically. But not last year, only this threequart-year. So either it's the vax or the mutated virus. Can't say which without real data.

Vax protects you negatively you say? On average it does seem to do more bad than good (depending on your age):
But it could be dependent on genetics where some races are more susceptible than others, like other illnesses are (for example: kidney stones). Or that website spins the info.

You can also look at it in cars assembly terminology: There's too few people adding wheels to cars. Let's replaces the ones that add doors with people that add wheels (train all Tcells to target covid, instead of letting them be undifferentiated and help out when needed)

Let me give you an example:
In Belgium there is this kids singer group named K3. One of the Ex-singers now lives in SouthAfrica. And she gives report that the South Africans have less covid deaths on average and are less vaccinated. And that the news about Omicron came as a surprise.
For me, she is credible. Others voice that same thing:
And coincidental this Omicron is just in time to frighten people into Booster 1. Some even claim it's for something the country did, just like England was punished for the Brexit by giving them a variant just in time to push people into the next vaccination wave.


More about Omicron:


Note that the next tweet has it's main text taken out of context. What's important in this link, once you click on it, is the SouthAfrican lady raging to the BBC (2 videos, back to back, just scroll down a bit in twitter). Note that she says "We won't be save until everybody is vaccinated", so she's still from the 'once vaccinated you cant get covid'-delusional faction, but she makes valid points: South Africa found it... and is being punished for finding it."


Then all that info synthesized into one small compehensible newsbyte:

  • Is Omicron mild? We don't know yet
  • Is Omicron worse? We don't know yet
  • Is Omicron Unicron? No, that one devoured planets. Cells are not planets.
  • NECRONOMICON? No, it's not a book. Although it's related, you can't book a flight to SouthAfrika at the moment.


Warning: UK beware of the Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch - variant. The differentiating symptoms of this particular variant: is muscle ache in the tongue muscle.



In other news:
 
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levi

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Others voice that same thing:
Lots of Africa are underreporting because of lack of organised healthcare and certainly a lack of the tendency to test every strain of virus found. Even south Africa seems to be underreporting:
Note this isn't an annual effect. I'd assume at some times in the year more people die naturally due to the weather, but I don't know when that is in s-africa. Instead on that graph the spikes are caused by infection waves, and as I'm reading that graph it suggests that their doctors aren't catching all cases.
 

FBnil

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@levi: Still, Wikipedia = not-that-credible source. But your conjecture is very plausible indeed.



 
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HelenF

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With some groups saying the spike protein is bad for you, won't it also be bad for you if you catch the virus?
 

λ the β-Redex Reducer

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86 stillbirths compared to how many live births? Proportion is important
That is the wrong question and the wrong proportion to ask for. We want to know the danger of the injections by looking at stillbirths. So the control group must be the un-injected, not the injected. For example, you do not judge how dangerous smoking is by looking at how many smokers get cancer vs how many smokers do not get cancer, you look at how many smokers get cancer vs how many non-smokers get cancer.

• if Ontario saw 1087 stillbirths in 12 mths (2020) & 1421 in 2019 - how is 86 in half that period a worry?
Because all of them were injected and because the 86 were just from Waterloo while the 1087 and 1421 came from the entirety of Ontario.
 
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wdt

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FWIW, I paid attention to this. Normal 1st trimester (spontaneous) abortions (pre notavax) about 1in 6 or 8
If 'vaxed' in 1st trimester, 5 in 6,, a bit better if 'vaxed' later, 2nd trimester 50%,+or-,
3rd trimester 30%
Many more newborns in intensive care in 2021, things like myocarditis
This was previously rather rare
 

ElPoco

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(e.g. proceeding very cautiously over the first two years to discover long term effects in a proper Stage III trial before embarking on the full on vaccination campaign).
Stage III trial isn't for long term effects (no vaccine ever had long term effects and there's no theoretical reason why there would be long term effects), it's to assess the efficiency of the vaccine against infections (this is why we started with estimates that were regularly updated).
 

TeDaDeS

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With some groups saying the spike protein is bad for you, won't it also be bad for you if you catch the virus?
I think people don't want to get sick, but that's a different discussion from being mandated to get vaccinated.

Most countries already had a mandate vaccine program and when introduced that also had some opposition. But the difference is that they didn't introduce these extensive measures to enforce it.
Those vaccines now existed for a long time and all the risks were mostly known. History shows that mandating vaccines creates more opposition then having it as a choice, which feels unintuitive.
Add on top the political part and all the confusing information that is given, it causes a lack of trust and even more hesitance about getting vaccinated.

Stage III trial isn't for long term effects (no vaccine ever had long term effects and there's no theoretical reason why there would be long term effects), it's to assess the efficiency of the vaccine against infections (this is why we started with estimates that were regularly updated).
All vaccines up to this point weren't based on mRNA so there was no need to have these tested I guess.
 

Phlyra

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Stage III trial isn't for long term effects (no vaccine ever had long term effects and there's no theoretical reason why there would be long term effects), it's to assess the efficiency of the vaccine against infections (this is why we started with estimates that were regularly updated).
I didn’t say they were but the fact is they made the Type III trial the main roll out, which is not exactly “proceeding with an abundance of caution”...
My other point about long term effects still stands because two years have literally not yet passed and remember that for Moderna and Pfizer-BionTech, we’re talking about administering something that under the pre-Covid-19 definition wasn’t technically a vaccine (though it tries to get the body to produce its own) and whilst mRNA approaches had been tested for ~a decade by the time of Covid-19, AFAIA any trials had only taken place in mice/rats?
 
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JDTAY

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Oh man, apparently 13 people on a Portuguese soccer team got Omicron, but the real kicker is that only one of them had been to South Africa.
 

TeDaDeS

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I didn’t say they were but the fact is they made the Type III trial the main roll out, which is not exactly “proceeding with an abundance of caution”...
My other point about long term effects still stands because two years have literally not yet passed and remember that for Moderna and Pfizer-BionTech, we’re talking about administering something that under the pre-Covid-19 definition wasn’t technically a vaccine (though it tries to get the body to produce its own) and whilst mRNA approaches had been tested for ~a decade by the time of Covid-19, AFAIA any trials had only taken place in mice/rats?
You could summarize it as:
When there is a risk to taking the vaccine for you personally, you should have a choice.
If it's forced, there should be someone responsible in case you are harmed.
 
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