COVID-19 / Coronavirus Pandemic


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You are at far greater risk of severe disease (including death) by not being vaccinated than the known risks of - for example, anaphylactic shock or blood coagulation (both of which are treatable with a great deal of success when identified early).
I disagree on that. Based on my collected data so far.

Wow! Which study are you participating in, where is it registered, and to which institution are you affiliated? I can't wait to see the pre-print. Sounds pretty major!
 
Wow! Which study are you participating in, where is it registered, and to which institution are you affiliated? I can't wait to see the pre-print. Sounds pretty major!
I'll show it when it gets published, in 55 years. Sit tight! They are working on it.

I mean this unironically. For example:
Estimates of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) have declined in recent months (1,2) because of waning vaccine induced immunity over time,* possible increased immune evasion by SARS-CoV-2 variants (3), or a combination of these and other factors

So at the moment, I know no studies that concentrate on "other factors". Where, for example, they body, becomes increasingly ineffective to produce anti-spike white blood-cells and so, the max amount of protection becomes less, and the interest in breaking down the spikes by the body is also less and disappears faster and faster ("wanes"). This interest might be because the body goes: meh, we know spikes; or because the overall response is lower (immuno-deficiency increases). The latter is now being investigated, and hinted at.

Protection against COVID-19 after 2 doses of mRNA vaccine wanes, but little is known about durability of protection after 3 doses.
Well, we now know this now, and it's not good, protecting you for a shorter and shorter timespan. But the cause? Not yet known.

ps: I tried to find in the papers that your immunity also is less, not only shorter, but I can't find the data (the summaries say you are more protected, just for a shorter time period - which would lead to the conclusion that the body becomes more and more effective at disposing of spikes, and are finished earlier in cleansing the body of the spikes... but I can not find data about amount of spikes v/s amount of anti-spikes in the papers. If the spikes are still there while the protection "waned", then that would mean immunodeficiency, if there is no spikes at all, then we have a stronger antibody response)
 
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Corben Dallas got the shot, Corben Dallas is not green anymore. (That, or the boxing in his early years)
 
Corben Dallas got the shot, Corben Dallas is not green anymore. (That, or the boxing in his early years)
That's a really poor paper. It's basically a VAERS report, and provides no evidence of 'a causal relation between ICB and the vaccination' - the phrase 'cannot be excluded' can be applied to the existence of a teapot floating between the orbits of Earth and Mars. It is of zero evidential value.

Note that the patient was in a poor state of cardiovascular health (He had a previous history of myocardial infarction, arterial hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and nephrolithiasis. Blood pressure was slightly elevated on admission. Blood tests revealed mildly elevated D-dimer, pre-diabetes and hyperuricemia.), and you can reasonably expect a non-zero rate of ICBs in the population of people of his age and state of health. The question, of course, is whether the expected rate has been increased by vaccinations. Thats why VAERS is useful as it gives cluse for epidemiologists to follow up in properly planned studies. It's one event, with no causal relation shown. Don't fall for the availability fallacy, or thinking that correlation is causation.
 
I'll show it when it gets published, in 55 years. Sit tight! They are working on it.

I mean this unironically. For example:


So at the moment, I know no studies that concentrate on "other factors". Where, for example, they body, becomes increasingly ineffective to produce anti-spike white blood-cells and so, the max amount of protection becomes less, and the interest in breaking down the spikes by the body is also less and disappears faster and faster ("wanes"). This interest might be because the body goes: meh, we know spikes; or because the overall response is lower (immuno-deficiency increases). The latter is now being investigated, and hinted at.


Well, we now know this now, and it's not good, protecting you for a shorter and shorter timespan. But the cause? Not yet known.

ps: I tried to find in the papers that your immunity also is less, not only shorter, but I can't find the data (the summaries say you are more protected, just for a shorter time period - which would lead to the conclusion that the body becomes more and more effective at disposing of spikes, and are finished earlier in cleansing the body of the spikes... but I can not find data about amount of spikes v/s amount of anti-spikes in the papers. If the spikes are still there while the protection "waned", then that would mean immunodeficiency, if there is no spikes at all, then we have a stronger antibody response)
No, the body does not become increasingly ineffective at producing 'anti-spike white blood cells', unless you are talking about normal age-related changed in the immune system (elderly people have less effective immune systems, which is why they need more protection), or infection with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), or treatment with immunosuppressive drugs.

After intial stimulation, your body produced enough antibodies to deal with an infection (or vaccination). These antibodies remain in circulation, but naturally fade away. However, the production process by the B-cells also produces memory B-cells, which can start antibody production far faster and in far greater volume if you get infected again. At initial stimulation, it takes about 10 days for antibody production to come to a peak. Afterwards, once you have memory B-cells, its 3-5 days, producing far more. So if you measure antibody levels in the blood, they drop after infection/vaccination, and can get to (effectively) zero: but the memory B-cells are ready in case you get infected again.




For more details on the process, look at the Wikipedia article on seroconversion. Immunology is notoriously complicated. Most immunologists would say, if you think you understand it, you haven't studied it enough yet. There's a simplified overview here:


It's part of an overall resource on immune memory and the coronoavirus:


The current standard of public discussion around immunity, vaccinations, and SARS-COV-2 is dire, partly because people peddling oversimplified, and sometimes just plain wrong descriptions gain far too much exposure. It isn't helped by 'experts' commenting on areas outside of their expertise.
 
So we just assume the teapot got TCP/IP and send http requests all out the interplanetary space, and wait for a 418 back.

as for the serious reply, I'll need a few days to go through the text.
 
Russell didn't know me. It wouldn't be the first time I can't remember where I left a thing...
Btw, the page is good, but I didn't like the last paragraph.
Mea culpa - I didn't read through the entire page, and was seduced by the good and clear explanation, which I thought was more succinct than the Wikipedia article.

On the other hand, if you are trying to prove that something doesn't exist, one technique would be to look at all the things that do exist and show they are not the thing that you are trying to show that does not exist. There's some philosophical debate over whether, say, the existence of a teapot has any non-zero evidentiary value if you are trying to show the non-existence of a unicorn. If you have looked at all the things in the Universe, and none of them are unicorns, then you can reasonably conclude unicorns don't exist, so in that process, does finding a teapot whilst searching make you any more certain that unicorns don't exist? Obviously, if it is the last 'thing' you are examining, having exhaustively looked at everything else, then finding the 'thing' is in fact a teapot and not a unicorn has great value. But how about part way through the search?

It is related to the armchair ornithologist, investigating whether all crows are black from the comfort of their armchair on a rainy day. Second problem discussed in this text:

...The statement “all crows are black” is, from a logical point of view, exactly the same as “all non–black things are not crows”. So instead of identifying crows and examining them for blackness, it seems just as valid to identify non–black things and examine them for non–crowiness. Glancing around her she finds a rich source of evidence: on a nearby table stands a bowl of fruit. In it there sits an object which is not black, but yellow; on examination it is found to be not a crow, but a banana. This is an observation in favour of the black crow hypothesis. A quick glance reveals another non–black object which, on the evidence of a taste test, appears to be a strawberry rather than a crow. (Just as well.) Marvellous! – still more support for the theory!
Like all good scientists, our ornithologist friend takes some time out to consider her methodology. It appears ridiculous to say that a banana can have any relevance to ornithological research. Yet the logic seems watertight. Observation of the banana clearly supports the hypothesis “all non–black things are not crows”, and therefore must also support the proposal “all crows are black”, as this is merely a different way of saying exactly the same thing...
 
The German "Bundestag" (Federal Day), our Gouverment had a Meeting Yesterday on the Topic of making a Mandatory Vaccination Law (Everyone 18 + shall get a Vaccination), but they ditnt got enough votes, ..

I end up now whit my own Mask Law: Only if its gets too close to the customer or if there are older customers, or if the customer whe get also got a Mask on..
 
Mea culpa - I didn't read through the entire page, and was seduced by the good and clear explanation, which I thought was more succinct than the Wikipedia article.
Well, you didn't write the page, just linked to it and taught me things therewith, so thanks.

On the other hand, if you are trying to prove that something doesn't exist, one technique would be to look at all the things that do exist

Nonsense? Looking at all the things that exist is just as impossible as looking at all places and times to see if the thing is there.

and show they are not the thing that you are trying to show that does not exist. There's some philosophical debate over whether, say, the existence of a teapot has any non-zero evidentiary value if you are trying to show the non-existence of a unicorn. If you have looked at all the things in the Universe, and none of them are unicorns, then you can reasonably conclude unicorns don't exist, so in that process, does finding a teapot whilst searching make you any more certain that unicorns don't exist? Obviously, if it is the last 'thing' you are examining, having exhaustively looked at everything else, then finding the 'thing' is in fact a teapot and not a unicorn has great value. But how about part way through the search?
I'm sure that unicorn that silently follows after you wherever you search for unicorns is having lots of fun seeing your reasoning. I mean most unicorns just appear and disappear at random, but this one seems to like you.

It is related to the armchair ornithologist, investigating whether all crows are black from the comfort of their armchair on a rainy day. Second problem discussed in this text:

What was the joke about the travellers on a train through Scotland for the first time ?
They see a black sheep through the windows and the economist says "Oh, I see in Scotland sheeps are black".
Then the engineer says "all we can see is that in Scotland there is at least one black sheep"
And then the mathematician says "all we can say is that in Scotland there's at least one sheep which is black at least on one side".
I don't remember if the original joke had those jobs or others. But I guess the ghost of David Hume smiled at them.
 
I know the sheep joke well.

As for the impossibility of looking at everything, it's the difference between a logical impossibility and a practical impossibility. It's not practical, but there's nothing wrong with the logic of the process.

A mind-blowing demonstration of this is the fact that there exists a decomposition of [a] ball into a finite number of disjoint subsets, which can then be put back together in a different way to yield two identical copies of the original ball. Indeed, the reassembly process involves only moving the pieces around and rotating them without changing their shape. This is otherwise known as the Banach–Tarski paradox. Our geometrical and topological intuition fail us at this point, but the mathematics is clear. I don't pretend to understand it.
 
A mind-blowing demonstration of this is the fact that there exists a decomposition of [a] ball into a finite number of disjoint subsets, which can then be put back together in a different way to yield two identical copies of the original ball.
I guess that only works as long as you only care for surface area and not volume? Or rather you compare the original and the copies in n-dimansional space, but do the slicing in n+1 dimensions?
 
I guess that only works as long as you only care for surface area and not volume? Or rather you compare the original and the copies in n-dimansional space, but do the slicing in n+1 dimensions?
I'll repeat that I don't pretend to understand it, but the Wikipedia article points out that the sphere is divided up into 'things' where volume is undefined.

This article goes into a little more (handwavy) detail


And this is for the more mathematically hardcore:


There are also plenty of YouTube explainers - just search for "banach-tarski paradox" in YouTube.
 
trying to show the non-existence of a unicorn.
Well, they existed at one time, where the trait of the horn was selected for, and thus, fetal unicorns started to grow the horn bigger and bigger. At one point, the mothers all got scraped and pierced from the insides when the fetus rotates, and so, they went extinct. - Armchair evolutionist. The horn is soft tissue, so the fossil record can not distinguish them from proto-horses (equus). (insert "prove me wrong" meme here)

If you have looked at all the things in the Universe, and none of them are unicorns, then you can reasonably conclude unicorns don't exist,
Well, only if you don't care about truth. You see, the unicorn started as a biblical mis-representation.
Personally, I think it's a wooly cousin of the Rhinoceros Unicornis. But there is certainly room for lore: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/unicorns-are-real-kind-of

but they ditnt got enough votes
this time. I'm sure they will try again before summer holidays because it needs to be mandatory for august.

What was the joke about the travelers on a train through Scotland for the first time ?
They see a black sheep through the windows and the economist says "Oh, I see in Scotland sheep are black".
Then the engineer says "all we can see is that in Scotland there is at least one black sheep"
And then the mathematician says "all we can say is that in Scotland there's at least one sheep which is black at least on one side".
I don't remember if the original joke had those jobs or others. But I guess the ghost of David Hume smiled at them.
Nice and all, but the story is not fact-checked and did they do a peer reviewed study of the species? ;)
 
@Confuzzled Hm-kay, not what I assumed it would be. Rather a higher degree of brain fuckery - at least measured by my humble standards.
 
Nice and all, but the story is not fact-checked and did they do a peer reviewed study of the species? ;)
Nah, they were about to start it when Hume's ghost talked them out of it and the four of them ended up in a pub.
 
The CDC says the 7-day average of COVID-19 cases just hit 28,000, a level not seen since March 16th. It’s coming back, y’all.
 
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