World News Thread (Politics,whatever)


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JDTAY

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Meh at FiveThirtyEight today. They're including a poll sponsored by an anti-trans group because it was done by a semi-reliable pollster. It has Biden's lead at 2 percentage points.

Even the poll's own methodology says it's relying on a 2016 turnout model. I think 2018 proved that we'll be getting a much different turnout than 2016 this year.
 

ElPoco

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Because its gets warmer, its means more extreme weather can happen, not only hotter, but also colder..
Yes, there are some weird side-effects like cooling oceans making the Gulf Stream weaker, which would lower temperatures in some parts of Europe.
Climate has always been fluctuating, but rarely if ever had it changed to quickly in such a short time. The theory is here, the data to support it is here, there is a scientific consensus over that issue. There are very few incentives for scientists to support it (the biggest companies and most governments are trying to downplay/ignore it). We even have proof that companies like Exxon that denied it actually had data that supported it.
 

levi

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Climate change used to be called "Global Warming". Renaming it to "Climate Change" was a good move because the climate has always been fluctuating and now they can claim to be right whatever happens.
Not really. They've long been predicting a reduction in the ice around the poles, and what's happening now? I think they've also been predicting increased tropical storms for a few years now, and this is the first year they've run out of english alphabetic names for storms. And while they haven't predicted the fire storms in Australia and Texas, I think they predicted increased droughts in those areas. There's always differences in opinions, and the news media haven't done a good job in reporting these predictions ahead of time, but you can't say the majority of them didn't say this was going to happen.
 

theredbaron

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Not really. They've long been predicting a reduction in the ice around the poles, and what's happening now? I think they've also been predicting increased tropical storms for a few years now, and this is the first year they've run out of english alphabetic names for storms. And while they haven't predicted the fire storms in Australia and Texas, I think they predicted increased droughts in those areas. There's always differences in opinions, and the news media haven't done a good job in reporting these predictions ahead of time, but you can't say the majority of them didn't say this was going to happen.
Actually, the big increase in wild fires was predicted, as this times article from 2016 points out: https://time.com/4525178/climate-change-forest-fires/

However, the "real" search for this is drought, as you point out. DRY=FIRE, at leadt it makes it MUCH more likely. If you read through the papers, it was pointed out a long time ago, but more as a side effect of said drought, not so much the papers in of themselves.

Just like smoking and leaded gas, I have no doubt that in time the general population will accept it, and those that don't are at best seen like flatearthers are today. However, we currently have new organizations that are actively trying to control the narrative to convince people that its not true. It is surmountable still, but it will take more time.

Sent from my H3123 using Tapatalk
 

pyrat

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I already lost the pen. :(
♬♬ ♬ ♬ Hey, you must always look on the briiight siiide of life, mhnmhn mhn-mhn-mhn ... ♬♬ ♬ ♬

You lost any coronavirus that was lying on that pen's surface !

[I find it wise to give the pens away and not reuse them this year, I guess they have no problem with bring-your-own-pen ? ]
 

JDTAY

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FiveThirtyEight has a handy guide to when election results are expected in each state, along with how results are expected to shift in each state as they're reported.


In my state, they're expecting an initial blue mirage as early votes will be reported first, then a red shift as election day votes are counted, then finally a slight blue shift over the next nine days as more mail-in votes come in.

I think more states are expected to have red mirages and blue shifts though, because most of them don't start counting early votes until election day.

Edit: Looking at all the states and times, the first state to watch will be Georgia at 7 PM ET. Election could be over before my state even closes at 7:30 PM ET if Biden has a clear lead in Georgia, since miniature shifts in that state are expected to mostly cancel each other out.
 
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JDTAY

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Today's actually kind of a slow news day considering what's around the corner.

Only thing I can think to share is that we have yet another tropical disturbance in the Atlantic that has almost a 100% chance of becoming a storm in the next two days.

Looks like it's headed towards Honduras and Nicaragua for right now.
 

JDTAY

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Shoot, they just issued their first advisory for Tropical Depression 29.

They expect it to be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras.
 
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JDTAY

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I actually looked at general news for once. I usually have a fear of it.


I guess I'll continue to have a fear of it then. Man, I didn't realize Sean Connery hadn't acted in over a decade. Kids probably don't even know who he is these days.
 

JDTAY

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Hmmm, looking at my state's early voter statistics, the prediction that more Democrats than Republicans would take advantage of early voting doesn't seem to be holding up. Democratic turnout is at 62.4%, Republican turnout is just behind at 62.0%. It looks like unaffiliated voters are the ones planning to show up on election day, since they're at 53.5%. Or maybe they won't show up at all. It's hard to say, but I think low unaffiliated turnout benefits Biden.

Female turnout is also beating male turnout, 61% to 57%. Tells me that females are more likely to be in the main two parties than males are, as opposed to unaffiliated.
 

JDTAY

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FiveThirtyEight doing a lot of updating right now, because they plan to freeze their forecast just after midnight tonight.

They have Biden with an over a third chance to win Texas. I will probably poop myself if he wins Texas.

They still have Pennsylvania as the most important state to watch, but counting there will run well past midnight tomorrow night, since they can't open the mail-in ballots until tomorrow morning.

Biden could always nail it before then by winning a swing state like Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, or the previously mentioned Texas though.
 

JDTAY

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In other news, Hurricane Eta is now a category three, also known as major, hurricane. Honduras and Nicaragua are going to need everybody's support.

Also bad, the extended forecast has it turning north and going back out to sea on Saturday, where it might strengthen again, then hit somewhere else. Too early to say on that though.

Edit: Their 4 PM ET advisory is out, and it says category four now. This one just doesn't quit.
 
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JDTAY

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Hurricane Eta is at 150 mph max sustained winds. Note that category four ranges from 130 to 156 mph. The highest category, five, starts at 157 mph.

Good chance this thing could be a five when it hits. Central America is going to be absolutely annihilated.

Edit: I mean, this story strikes me as more important than the US election. At least the election won't kill people. (Hopefully.)
 
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JDTAY

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One more meh at FiveThirtyEight before they freeze their forecast. They decided to include six polls by an unknown pollster called Wick just because they're pretty controversial.

Code:
https://medium.com/wick-research/predicting-2020-research-on-the-research-57ad9b7b3d5a
Wick's predicting an even larger polling error than 2016. They're mostly predicting this based on polling methods that have been unreliable in the past. The article itself has a clear bias.

It'll be worth a read though if something funny does happen when the results come in.
 
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levi

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In non-earth focussed news, Nasa's Aussie branch have managed to talk to the Voyager 2 probe for the first time since March.

 
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