Will We All Have Our Pandora's By Xmas?

[pandoria]

I know there's no definite dates, but with all the info about CE testing and the mass production of the PCB's, whats the likelihood off all of us receiving our pandora's before xmas.
I must be order no 3950 approx., so i may have longer too wait than some

 

[GuchaRU]

there's no need to create new topic to just ask this
you won't have answer anyway)

BUT IMO pandora will be shipped before xmas.

 

[stephen0205]

i sure hope so , i i want it sooooo bad, will be great to play those classics, and watch some nice tv shows

 

[Yigguth]

Who knows

 

[fiveseven]

2 months from now. So 10 days before Christmas.

 

[Ravnos]

2 months from now. So 10 days before Christmas.

10 days before Christmas we'll see another "only 2 more months" blog or board post.

 

[SNESFAN]

didn't someone just ask that question??? Oh wait ... last year... my bad

 

[andyB911]

2 months from now. So 10 days before Christmas.

I was chuckling at this... when it occurred to me that if, by some miracle we are at the 'real' (yes, I know... stop kidding myself) but if we were at the 'real' 2 months to go point, and it was dispatched on 15th Dec, with the UK post strike I probably wouldn't get it till March.

And (I don't think I'm making this up) that I remember laughing to myself at the option of 'quick delivery' when ordering all that time ago. And then laughing all the more at the thought that someone paid for SD cards and fast delivery.

Purchasing SD cards for delivery in over a year in advance will still suck, but imagine if it gets shipped on 15 Dec. The extra for non- Royal Mail delivery will have been a fine, fine investment. And I won't be laughing any more.

Ho Hum. The '2 months for delivery' could be the new '2 months'...

 

[monkeyo2]

We should be able to work this out with some simple mathematics.

If, for the sake of argument, we assume that everyone ordered one Pandora from the first batch of 4000, and they all have to wait 2 months, that makes a combine waiting time of 8000 man months, or 666 man years.

The current average life expectancy (according to Wikipedia) is 65 year, so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.

 

[Phawx]

heh, simple mathematics

 

[Gary13579]

The current average life expectancy (according to Wikipedia) is 65 year, so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.

This would be suitable math if it weren't for the target demographics.

Did you take into account the fact that most people who order the Pandora aren't doing it with their social security checks and retirement funds?

 

[aaronson911]

Maybe I am overly optimistic, But assuming the mass productions of the boards start today I would say Thanksgiving.

 

[gibberish]

i very much doubt it.
it seems like the project is coming to an end, but its seemed that way since january. id say its got another few months left in it yet.

 

[Izomiac]

so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.

Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.

 

[renwils]

so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.

Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.

That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.

 

[Gary13579]

so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.

Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.

That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.

This is true, how many gamers do you know that love to go sky diving? Or drag race? Or leave their houses?

 

[renwils]

so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.

Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.

That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.

This is true, how many gamers do you know that love to go sky diving? Or drag race? Or leave their houses?

I guess the counter-argument to that is, how many non-gamers do you see recording video from their roof?

 

[Izomiac]

That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.

This is true, how many gamers do you know that love to go sky diving? Or drag race? Or leave their houses?

Meh, the lion's share of accidental deaths for adults are car accidents. Falls, overdose, drowning, fire, gun accidents, gas leaks, medical accidents, and machinery are the next most common (respectively). Jokes aside, I would expect almost everyone who can afford to shell out >$300 on a Pandora is either employed or in school. Most of them would spend as much time in vehicles as the general population, perhaps more since they want to buy a portable device. Gun accidents probably wouldn't apply for Brits, but given what I've seen of a certain British dude I'm thinking falls more than compensate for that. Drowning is for outdoors-men. Fires and gas leaks are for homebodies. And a lot of geeks work with machinery.

So, all-in-all, it seems to be a wash until it ships. Then some idiot will probably try to use the Pandora while driving or someone'll forget to eat while it's recharging or something.

 

[Gary13579]

Haha, amazing come back. I just recently saw that video actually.

Did he really fall? I thought it was staged for a bit.

After watching the video again I feel stupid for posting that :\.

 

[El Jefe]

Haha, amazing come back. I just recently saw that video actually.

Did he really fall? I thought it was staged for a bit.

After watching the video again I feel stupid for posting that :\.

I see you found the edit button, now how about using it to not make yourself look like a dumbass, instead of telling us you feel like the dumbass you are