fiveseven said:2 months from now. So 10 days before Christmas.
fiveseven said:2 months from now. So 10 days before Christmas.
This would be suitable math if it weren't for the target demographics.monkeyo2 said:The current average life expectancy (according to Wikipedia) is 65 year, so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.
monkeyo2 said:so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.
That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.Izomiac said:monkeyo2 said:so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.
Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.
Lunatic said:That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.Izomiac said:monkeyo2 said:so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.
Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.
Gary13579 said:Lunatic said:That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.Izomiac said:monkeyo2 said:so we can expect 10.2 pre-order-ers to die in the next 2 months, may be many more considering the intrinsic evilness of that number of years. So to answer the question, no we probably won’t all have our Pandoras before Christmas.
Humans have a type I survivorship curve, so that approach doesn't work. For the Pandora's target demographic, accidental death is the most likely way to go, and that's generally 1/1000 per year. So, you could estimate that four preorderers never got their Pandora. For the next two months we're due to lose 4000 - 4000*(.999^(1/12))^2 = two thirds of a person. So be careful around bladed objects... Really that means there's a .999^(1/12)^2^4000 = 51% chance that we'll all make it to see the Pandora ship... unless someone goes blind or something.
This is true, how many gamers do you know that love to go sky diving? Or drag race? Or leave their houses?
Gary13579 said:This is true, how many gamers do you know that love to go sky diving? Or drag race? Or leave their houses?Lunatic said:That's assuming that the population of pre-orders is representative of the general population.
I see you found the edit button, now how about using it to not make yourself look like a dumbass, instead of telling us you feel like the dumbass you areGary13579 said:Haha, amazing come back. I just recently saw that video actually.
Did he really fall? I thought it was staged for a bit.
After watching the video again I feel stupid for posting that :\.