Pleng said:
jb0yx said:
ya know... it only takes an official OVER estimate to resolve that whole thing.... then a retractatory OPPS! SURPRISE! look what I got! .............. just sayin
Well yes and no. If they really truly believed that it would be ready last December, they could have said May 09 to give themselves a three month buffer zone. Even that apparently extremely OVER cautious approach would have led to them being 6+ months out...
What was REALLY needed was realistic, in depth time estimates. They didn't do this.
To do a good time estimate you really need to go through step-by-step, day-by-day and add everything up. This is tedious work, but if you start estimating large chunks only, then you'll come up with ridiculously optimistic time estimates. It's a common mistake.
Imagine the Pandora was a cake.
Last September :
"We've just got to bake it. The directions say twenty minutes."
(At this stage all the other steps are not even being properly considered because they're "easy". Don't worry about flour. You can get that at the store.)
Last October: ( 10 minutes in )
"Good news! We've completed the grocery list, and are heading out to the store now! As soon as we get back, the cake will be ready in twenty minutes!"
[Grocery store refused to take credit cards : Excused 20 minute Delay ]
March : (30 minutes in )
"Good news! We're back from the Grocery store with everything we need! We just need to mix all the ingredients together and then the cake will be ready in twenty minutes!"
April : (40 minutes in )
"Ok, we had a bit of a delay, all our measuring cups were in metric, and the directions were from America, but with a little help from Texas Instruments we've been able to work through that. We just need to put everything together, then the cake will be ready in twenty minutes!"
"Don't lose faith now! We're on the home stretch!"
June : (50 minutes in )
"Not much to report. We're just mixing the ingredients according to the instructions. Pretty soon we're going to start baking, so the cake will be ready in just over twenty minutes. "
August : (1 hour 10 minutes in )
"Hurray! The ingredients are all mixed in the mixing bowl! We took turns licking the spoon, and I can tell you we're all pleased with the result. Now we just need to pour it into the pan."
"In other news we're going to need to pre-heat the oven for twenty minutes, so we're going to start that now."
"We're really excited that we've finally gotten to the "oven" stage of the process."
September ( 1 hour 20 minutes in )
"All the ingredients are mixed, and in the pan. We're just waiting on the pre-heating. Once that's complete the cake will be ready in twenty minutes."
October ( 1 hour 30 minutes in )
"The Cake is in the oven! This is it. This is the final stretch! The cake will well and truly be ready in twenty minutes!"
December ( 1 hour 50 minutes in )
"The cake is done! It's great to finally be at the end of this long journey".
"Before we can serve the cake we need to put the icing on, and we're going to do that as soon as it cools down!"
January ( 2 hours in )
"The cake is cool enough to touch. Let me tell you, it smells fantastic. We've just started the icing process, and I think you're all going to be very pleased with the results."
February ( 2 hours 10 minutes in )
"CAKE! COME AND GET IT!"
However, note that the cake
does finally get served in this story, and that it is probably delicious. (It's chocolate.)
LOL
