Air-defense rockets are designed to self-destruct when not hitting their air-target. What is the chance 2 rockets fail, fly off and hit Poland. Not impossible, just very unlucky.
Not sure, but I've heard Russia has used S-300, which are in theory ground to air, to hit ground targets when short of better weapons. I don't know if Ukraine may be doing the same,
and maybe just confused a modified S-300 with a regular one, or used what they had against an incoming missile but failed, or it self-destructed too late and still killed people.
If it was Ukraine planting a false flag attack on Poland to get the NATO to fight Russia, and then denying it, it is so silly it's unbelievable. They could have found thousands of
more plausible scenarios, and not waste a scarce air defense missile.
But if it was Russia, then the target seems very little interesting (unless there were weapons in transit hiding in those grain silos), but besides, how did they do it ?
If it really was a S-300 and it had to be fired from less than 150 km, then Belorussia, the sea or Russian positions are all too far.
Or can S-300 be launched from planes ? I don't think so...
Or then again it wasn't an S-300 and the debris found is planted to confuse the public, or it was an S-300 stored there that another missile destroyed, or...
I think we the public will never know. And @netcat
is right, it doesn't matter. Most likely, whoever it was, it wasn't on purpose.
It does still make sense to not escalate from NATO-side, so to not blame Russia directly while privately they can still use it as leverage against them. So if that would be true, in both case (either Ukrainian or Russian) the reaction would be the same.
Well yes. But i regret a little the discourse "whoever it was it's Russia's fault". There's no shortage on terrible things that are Russia's fault, no need to add any one if you don't think Russia fired the missile.
And Poland has given Ukraine weapons, and logistics, and received millions of refugees, so two Polish people dead is not to downplay like nothing happened.
I'd like both sides to say they're sorry, more than blame each other.
But then I'd like no war, and all...
It's a single rocket. I don't know why some sources report two or why the Ukrainian president stated that Moldova was hit with a rocket. Possibly it's translation errors missing the nuance.
Maybe it's a confusion because ther ewere two people dead ?