War in Ukraine


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TeDaDeS

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One part of the car lane has collapsed into the sea, the other is already opened again.
The train section was damaged by the burning train but I think that one was also opened again.

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pyrat

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I've read a couple of articles from Reuters on the economic war. This one is about USA companies selling components (office networking gear?) to Russia missile manufacturers through proxies.I think I understood it, basically that export bans are not so easy and smuggling finds a way. It just raises some doubts on how real are embargoes and how credible the claims that Russia is running out of missiles and rockets to throw at Ukraine because they can't build more without western components..

This other one I could not understand (maybe if I tried harder?). Seems that foreign companies investing in Russian companies kept proxy documents instead of holding shares directly (some kind of derivatives, which sound little derived), and the Russian government forced them to transform the documents to actual shares, but now the foreign banks are having accounting troubles making sure they have the shares they have compromised or something and there's some chaos in who has what and how to convert documents to shares or cash or whatever. Something like foreigner investors used global banks as intermediearies to buy Russian shares, but then the Kremlin forced them to acquire the shares directly in Russia, bypassing foreign banks, and now the banks no longer know which of the shares they theoretically hold were already owned direcly by investors. Untangling globalisation seems harder than thought?
 

levi

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Yeah, not really proxy shared as proxies generally have an identified target. That's why they're called company deposits; you put your money in and there's only really a promise that you can turn it into a real share at some point in the future. Big surprise that big russian firms were happy to sell that promise over and over again.
 

JDTAY

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I heard on CBS this morning that the US is building up troops at the Ukraine border. Anyone thinking invasion?
 

TeDaDeS

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I heard on CBS this morning that the US is building up troops at the Ukraine border. Anyone thinking invasion?
Latest rumors are:
Belarus might join the invasion from the North together with Russian forces, entering from the Belarusian border.
Russia evacuates the Kherson region and is planning to blow the dam and flood this area, other rumors are that they'll use chemical weapons there as all/most civilians have been evacuated from this area anyway.
 
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pyrat

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I've also heard speculation on the Russian plan being attacking from Belarus the Ukranian border zone with Poland, to interrupt the flow of western weapons into Ukraine.
Ukraine is attacking Dniper bridges and makeshift crosses, maybe hoping that the only road left to evacuate is the dam, so that it can't be blown, yet.
I think that dam is also where crimea gets its water, so not sure the Russians want to blow it, unless they count on losing Crimea already.
And nuclear, biological or chemical weapons in northeasten Kherson risk polluting the Dniper water that Crimeans drink ?
So if any the attack should be downstream the dam. Still terrible. There's the capital city of Kherson there.
But maybe I didn't understand the Crimean water supply right. Maybe it's independent of the dam ?
 

TeDaDeS

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Breaking the damn would also complicate any counter attacks. But it blocks Ukraine from entering Crimea easily. I doubt it would be helpful as Ukraine wasn't planning on entering Crimea anyway.
So I think the only reason to flood the area is if it would destroy a lot of enemy forces, and it Ukraine is hit by bad news. Not sure how practical it is.

addition: Possibly Russia could blow up the dam and blame Ukraine and it would be an explanation why this Kherson region isn't occupied by them anymore.

And if you're in the mood a full world-war 1 movie is on Youtube: All Quiet On The Western Front (1979)
 
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TeDaDeS

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The government has been urged to open an investigation into claims former prime minister Liz Truss's phone was hacked while she was foreign secretary.
"The Mail on Sunday reported agents suspected of working for Russia had been responsible for the alleged hacking, citing unnamed sources, but the BBC has not been able to verify this."
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-63442813
 
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pyrat

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Remember the Spain U-turn on West Sahara ? I just read more on it, and it looks like not only will Algeria raise gas prices just for Spain (and increse export to Italy, who has been more wise to not betray the Polisario), but the Algerian military are planning November operations at the border with Morocco, together with Russian, Egyptian, Pakistanese and Khazac troops. One notch more towards WWIII.
https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Au...ampfzone-in-die-Sahara-6669640.html?seite=all
Well. Now it's November and I haven't heard anything more. Has anyone heard of any operations in Algeria? Looks like Russia may have other worries now. Sorry for the Polisario, but happy if at least there's peace.
 

TeDaDeS

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Kherson was taken back by Ukrainian forces today. Which I assume is a blow to the Russian effort to take Ukraine.
Having this region under control could make it easier to push into the south more and cut off Ukraine and Crimea.
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pyrat

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2 people dead in Poland, at the border with Ukraine, apparently because of Russian missiles.
Poland is of course a NATO member (and UE, and Schengen, etc.).
Glups.
[Poland's prime minister] Muller told reporters later on Tuesday that the committee was convened due to the "crisis situation", adding that relevant information will be presented to the public later. He called on media not to publish "unverified information" in the meantime.
Russia says it wasn¡'t them. USA says they can't confirm it was Russia. Poland keeps holding crisis meetings.
 
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TeDaDeS

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2 people dead in Poland, at the border with Ukraine, apparently because of Russian missiles.
Poland is of course a NATO member (and UE, and Schengen, etc.).
Glups.

Russia says it wasn¡'t them. USA says they can't confirm it was Russia. Poland keeps holding crisis meetings.

But seriously, it probably was an accident. Russia probably doesn't want to attack Poland. But if they do:
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update: Russia appears to have denied it attacked Poland or even send rockets to that region in Ukraine, so I guess it was a sad accident.

Moldova was also hit:

Rumor: it might have been an Ukrainian rocket, used to try to shoot down a Russian rocket.
 
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pyrat

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update: Russia appears to have denied it attacked Poland or even send rockets to that region in Ukraine, so I guess it was a sad accident.
Yes.
Moldova was also hit:
But did they get bombed too ? or it is just that they buy electricity from Ukraine and the Ukranian grid was damaged ?
Some months ago I think Ukraine offered to sell more electricity to neighbours because with all refugees out of the country
they were consuming less than their production capacity. Then in October Russia estarted targetting the Ukranian grid.
But maybe part of Moldova's electricity still came from Ukraine.
Rumor: it might have been an Ukrainian rocket, used to try to shoot down a Russian rocket.
Yes, I hear in the radio it looks like that, and that there are no known Russian positions near enough the Polish village to
strike with the kind of missile they think it was (S-300?). They said they "only" reach 150 km. It might be from Bielorussia, but not very likely.
But if it was a soviet missile fired by Ukraine against some incoming attack, it would be odd how the Ukranian government reacted
by asking for more western implication. They should apologise or just stay silent. But they may have enough trouble to get all information timely sorted.
 
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