War in Ukraine


pyrat said:
Yes, but can they do so without asking the Russian population to keep calm ?
I mean, why on hell should Russians be calm if it comes to this?
Will Wagner sell T-shirts saying "Keep calm and have war at home"?
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News from today: "Wagner head Prigozhin says Russian army attacked his forces", source: https://www.dw.com/en/wagner-head-prigozhin-says-russian-army-attacked-his-forces/a-66016855
And: "Putin in crisis as Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership", source: https://www.politico.eu/article/put...-declares-war-on-russian-military-leadership/
Additional security forces are spotted in Moscow, probably to stop any possible actions from Wagner.

Possible reason why the Russian population doesn't appear to react in Russia: "A century of intermittent disaster and oppression have induced in many Russians a form of passive acceptance and patience that serve Mr. Putin well. As the contours of a much-touted Ukrainian counteroffensive begin to be drawn, he can still count on support from most of a population cowed by his increasingly repressive 23-year-old rule.", source: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/world/europe/russia-war-belgorod.html
 
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netcat said:
Clearly I'm no expert in soviet military history but this feels like a re-run.
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I'm sorry to be so ignorant about Russian history that I don't even catch your reference. You don't mean the October revolution, do you ? If someone drops me a wikipedia link or something I'd be grateful.
Wagner does not seem to be finding much opposition so far. It's still some theoretical 25000 people against a 1 million army or something. If that's really so. On one hand nobody starts such a mutiny with those numbers, on the other hand, once they start bombing you, you may run out of other options...
 
Happy mostly-peaceful special tasting of their own medicine day!
Things are going so fast, lets see how it ends today.

Wagner already shot 3 helicopters out of the sky and mostly runs by Russian army as those don't know what to do with the situation yet.

russia.jpg

After an helicopter attack in Rostov people get into a panic, they have no clue what is going on.
So the message to stay calm didn't really work that well I guess, probably it's a shock for them.
rostov.gif
 
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Well that oil depot fire in Voronezh looks dirty, but I guess few deaths yet.
Wagner propaganda photos show almost a party: civilians walking baby trolleys in front of tanks or taking selfies with Wagner fighters, just a little fist fight between opposed civilians...
But I have no idea, even if it was a peaceful overturn or a surrendered mutiny what would it mean. All quarreling sides are autoritarian and warmongering. Prigozhin has criticized the reasons for invading Ukraine, so if he won, he might retire from Ukraine, but Wagner has done enough atrocities to not bode well anyway, long term. And if it's not peaceful and many Russians die, it's good for the weaking and less killing of foreigners in the future, but it's bad because a lot of Russians die...
pyrat said:
I'm sorry to be so ignorant about Russian history that I don't even catch your reference. You don't mean the October revolution, do you ? If someone drops me a wikipedia link or something I'd be grateful.
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Never mind, Aljazeera reminded me. Funny meme:
One of them ridiculed the Russian Ministry of Defence’s exaggerations while reporting Ukraine’s battlefield losses.


“250,000 Wagner fighters were killed, 25,000 tanks destroyed, and three Prigozhins taken prisoner,” it read.
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Now the west must be worried for a Ukranian general suggestion that they could surround all the entrenched Russian defenses in occupied Ukraine by moving Ukranian troops through southwest Russia now that the Russians are busy between themselves, and Ukranian troops could so reinvade Ukraine from Russia and cut occupiers rearguard. Pity they'd do it with western weapons on Russian soil and Putin might not be in the best mood ... I hope they go more conservative...
 
It appears Belarus negotiated with Prigozhin and Wagner halted it's push to Moscow. They probably now turn around a head into Belarus.
I don't see a future with Prigozhin in it though, Russian leadership wouldn't want to see this happen again I would think.

A quick ending to an example of a special military operation that could have actually ended within 3 days.
 
Title: "Plan to blow up Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant approved, situation has never been so severe before ― Chief of Defence Intelligence"
Quote: "According to the head of the Defence Intelligence, Russia's order to commit a terrorist attack on the ZNPP may have been caused by the defeat of the Russian occupation forces on the Left Bank of Dnipro ― Russia considers creation of a nuclear disaster zone a safeguard for the further advance of the defence forces of Ukraine. At the same time, according to Budanov, there is a risk that the Russian Federation may cause a radiation leak at the ZNPP as a "preventive measure" to stop Ukraine's offensive operation and freeze the front line in its current form. There is frustration in Ukrainian intelligence and government circles that the international community's response to the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam on 6 June was so muted that this could provoke further use of "scorched Earth tactic," the newspaper notes."
Source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/25/7408481/
 
TeDaDeS said:
Title: "Plan to blow up Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant approved, situation has never been so severe before ― Chief of Defence Intelligence"
Quote: "According to the head of the Defence Intelligence, Russia's order to commit a terrorist attack on the ZNPP may have been caused by the defeat of the Russian occupation forces on the Left Bank of Dnipro ― Russia considers creation of a nuclear disaster zone a safeguard for the further advance of the defence forces of Ukraine. At the same time, according to Budanov, there is a risk that the Russian Federation may cause a radiation leak at the ZNPP as a "preventive measure" to stop Ukraine's offensive operation and freeze the front line in its current form. There is frustration in Ukrainian intelligence and government circles that the international community's response to the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam on 6 June was so muted that this could provoke further use of "scorched Earth tactic," the newspaper notes."
Source: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/25/7408481/
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I hope not, it would be dangerous for everyone, including the Russians themselves. I don't think the affected area would be small enough to just stop Ukranians. I bet Crimea, Kerch or so might be affected. No idea.
I don't understand why would they do it. But there are so many things that I didn't understand in this war...
 
pyrat said:
I hope not, it would be dangerous for everyone, including the Russians themselves. I don't think the affected area would be small enough to just stop Ukranians. I bet Crimea, Kerch or so might be affected. No idea.
I don't understand why would they do it. But there are so many things that I didn't understand in this war...
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I guess that the logic would probably be that leaders want to stay in power and not be persecuted and possibly killed. Even if that costs lots of lives that isn't their own.
Afterwards they can still claim Ukraine did it themselves by a failed attempt to shoot military vehicles near the plant and use that to escalate the war even further. Having a large radiated area at least would stop the advance of the Ukrainian military.

Russia can still get away with a lot even though they would pretty much lose if the western world attacks, which will not happen just because they appear to have support from China. If China drops their support Russians probably will clear up the mess internally.
And from that I deduce that I can imagine why countries want to own nukes, as it's a great deterrent. Even though Russia might not even own many properly working nukes, the idea that they have some and they will use them is already enough.
I read nukes need to be maintained to function, so having 1000+ working nukes is too expensive. We have seen that Russia saved money on military equipment because they thought they wouldn't really need to have that much, they had loads of stuff already.
 
I hear both Putin and Lukashenko are to give statements later today. Let's hope it's either a nothing burguer or the end of the war. Somehow I'm vaguely afraid not...
Edit: Don't know about Lukashenko, but Putin looks nothingburguersque. News might be that Wagner fighters can choose to exile in Belarus (or go home in Russia, or join the Russian army). I feared something worse...
 
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netcat said:
We should send arms to Wagner.
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I thought we did ? Do they only get weapons from the Russian army ? Don't they buy in the black or not so black market ? Or it depends on each contract terms ?
Or do you mean gratis ?
It seems finally they didn't announce a box match between Prigozhin and Putin. I wonder if some of their mothers would have prevented it at the last minute like Musk's... Wait, maybe that was it! Putin's mother called Prigozhin mother and they both told their children to behave ?
 
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But what's marketing going to say ? It's always been done the same way. You give away weapons to one side so the other side buys you weapons (or components at least). 3 sides makes it more complex, but tradition is still you pick one side to give weapons to and 2 to sell to.
And there's no knowing what Prigozhin would do with the weapons. He might just have decided Africa is more profitable than Russia or something.
 
Dunno what his true expectations were encroaching on Moscow but that would have been an opportune moment to give them howitzers, drones, uzi's and promises of immunity in Florida. Russian Civil War ftw. Imagine guerilla warfare in Moscow. Nice thought innit.
 
I think Biden did just the contrary. I guess he was rightly afraid it would not come to a guerrilla in Moscow but to nukes fired around. There's this Russian advisor who already has written two articles asking why didn't Putin use their nukes yet (pravda.ua is under Ukranian control, I think, and names RIA Novosti as source)...
RIA Novosti (Russian controlled media) says Wagner heavy weapons are being transferred to the Russian army. If true, then maybe giving Wagner weapons is not such a good idea.
 
OK, now the forecast is official. Saddam Hussein is not going to be able to invade Ukraine.Or was it Belarus ? Russia?
I think USA foreign policy is now much clearer. This is the secret reason the American government keeps delaying long range weapons to Ukraine. They are hiding that they are ineffective. The orders on where to aim are too difficult.
Note: Reuters are always so professional and meticulous. Mind the tittle. In the White House it is always necessary to clarify whether a slip of the tongue is verbal. shit. I'd've sworn the tittle said "in a verbal slip of the tongue..."
 
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