War in Ukraine

[TeDaDeS]

I must be growing old. I don't understand people anymore...
The Russian army will move tourist to (and from?) Crimea with their landing craft [source: Ukranian news, maybe some checking would be in order].
What do they, people there, consider tourism? Yes, I know, the Kerch bridge is damaged, but anyway.

Crimea is a very popular holiday location, mostly the beaches. It's a big chunk of land so people like to travel there even during a special military operation, and there might be some added ignorance due to the lack of information on the topic.
I also guess they won't really travel to Europe this year.

 

[pyrat]

Crimea is a very popular holiday location, mostly the beaches.

I know.

It's a big chunk of land so people like to travel there even during a special military operation,

I don't understand that. Sounds like a non-sequitur. War is not a good tourist destination. If it's a bigger chunk of land it just means it's a bigger war.

and there might be some added ignorance due to the lack of information on the topic.

Until they approach to the Kerch bridge and are told to load their car into a military landing craft ? Or does the military disguise their ships like ferries ?

I also guess they won't really travel to Europe this year.

Sure, but staying home is a better holiday plan that being taken to a military zone on a navy vessel, where you have something of a chance to meet a nuclear power plant worker who's just been evacuted there in case the biggest European nuclear power plant explodes or something.
I'm not even sure how much drinking water they have in Crimea.
I mean many Russian can't leave Russia now so easily, but Russia is huge. They must have better destinations than a war zone with a blown up reservoir.

 

[TeDaDeS]

Ukraine and Russia appear to post about a possible attack on the nuclear power plant, obviously they both point at each other:
Ukrainian version: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-at...d-plans-to-attack-znpp-with-drones-intel.html
It was mentioned somewhere else that the flow of wind would be more suitable for an attack as this week it's blowing more inwards into Ukraine.

I mean many Russian can't leave Russia now so easily, but Russia is huge. They must have better destinations than a war zone with a blown up reservoir.

I'm not Russian, but I assume it's very cheap to stay there at the moment. And since it's a touristic attraction anyway there will always be people going there. The chance of actually being injured is small, as it's a big chunk of land.
And I assume they'll advertise it as cheap and well protected by the military. There are many destinations to choose from but I guess people want to stay on a beach with some okay weather. Maybe they'll realize when arriving it was a bad decision, but maybe they have a great time there. Especially if you had low standards and expectations to begin with.

 

[pyrat]

Ukraine and Russia appear to post about a possible attack on the nuclear power plant, obviously they both point at each other:
Ukrainian version: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-at...d-plans-to-attack-znpp-with-drones-intel.html

Reuters is a western source, but I found this article more balanced, with the Russian version too. I find the Russian version harder to believe, but I'm western, so I might be biased or something.
In any case the news about this last night attack seem to be false now, so that's something. Like, no nuke today is good news.

It was mentioned somewhere else that the flow of wind would be more suitable for an attack as this week it's blowing more inwards into Ukraine.

I didn't know. makes sense. If it's the Russians who want to blow it, which I guess is the case.
But I can't understand it anyway. I didn't understand the Kharkhova dam blast either, so no wonder.

I'm not Russian, but I assume it's very cheap to stay there at the moment. And since it's a touristic attraction anyway there will always be people going there. The chance of actually being injured is small, as it's a big chunk of land.
And I assume they'll advertise it as cheap and well protected by the military. There are many destinations to choose from but I guess people want to stay on a beach with some okay weather. Maybe they'll realize when arriving it was a bad decision, but maybe they have a great time there. Especially if you had low standards and expectations to begin with.

Yes, maybe. Or maybe someone even takes the military as a tourist attraction...

 

[TeDaDeS]

Yes, maybe. Or maybe someone even takes the military as a tourist attraction...

It might also be that it looks really bad that so many people are leaving Crimea that the traffic can be labeled as tourist if they have this boat helping to ship out vehicles and people.
Instead of having an empty boat going to Crimea and a full one returning, they can put some tourist in it and label this boat as a tourist attraction.

 

[pyrat]

It might also be that it looks really bad that so many people are leaving Crimea that the traffic can be labeled as tourist if they have this boat helping to ship out vehicles and people.
Instead of having an empty boat going to Crimea and a full one returning, they can put some tourist in it and label this boat as a tourist attraction.

Well, maybe. But while a commercial ferry may look odd if often empty, a military vessel is not regarded the same. It's nothing special to have no transit of military vessels or if they look empty at any particular moment.

 

[pyrat]

Well, at the moment seems that we no longer need to talk about military vessels doing ferry service in the Kerch strait.
Traffic on the bridge and by sea has been suspended due to a couple of blasts this morning around 3:00 - 3:30 AM.
Sorry about a couple who died in a car and their injured orphan. The infrastructural damage is not clear to me now.
Might be a hint at an imminent stronger Ukranian offensive or might be some kind of retaliation against the expiration of the grain deal.Or even domestic terrorism/rebellion.
There was also drone attacks against Sevastopol, but the Russians say they stopped them.

 

[TeDaDeS]

It's sad news random people are impacted by attacks. I assume attacking at night is also to minimize the risk of casualties.
It wasn't clear how much the bridge is damaged though, only the road part sustained damage, which I assume was the goal of the attack. Railroad traffic is still up, as it's a separate part next to the roads.

Well, at the moment seems that we no longer need to talk about military vessels doing ferry service in the Kerch strait.

If the bridge is closed, wouldn't there be a need for more ferry services? Mostly to transport people away from Crimea.


---update---
There is video and photo material available. There is pretty much damage to the road. And the explosions was pretty big to.

 

[Confuzzled]

From the reports of multiple explosions, I suspect that explosions were set off under the bridge near to a pier to lift the spans off the supports. The video on the BBC website (which the BBC make deliberately difficult to link to*) taken from a passing train shows one end of one road span closest to the railway bridge lifted almost completely off its support, and the corresponding road span for traffic in the opposite direction also affected (you can see the distortion in the guard rail), so it was almost a completely successful attack on the road spans.


*It's currently on the page https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66219127 item with title "Watch: First video from Crimea bridge shows damage"

Edit to correct formatting

 

[pyrat]

If the bridge is closed, wouldn't there be a need for more ferry services? Mostly to transport people away from Crimea.

But the aljazeera news said ferries have been cancelled for now. I guess they need free sea for inspection or repairs, or just need to reconsider security, whatever. I think Ukraine says it's been Ukranian navy unmanned boats of some kind.
Edit: oh, never mind, BBC says Russians announced ferry service back on from 9:00 (and trains too)

 

[TeDaDeS]

From the reports of multiple explosions, I suspect that explosions were set off under the bridge near to a pier to lift the spans off the supports. The video on the BBC website (which the BBC make deliberately difficult to link to*) taken from a passing train shows one end of one road span closest to the railway bridge lifted almost completely off its support, and the corresponding road span for traffic in the opposite direction also affected (you can see the distortion in the guard rail), so it was almost a completely successful attack on the road spans.

I've seen a video that showed 2 explosions after air defense was active, so I think they might have used two ballistic missiles. Ukraine might have received MGM-140 (ATACMS) already, which has a range of ~300km and Ukraine requested these specifically to bomb these far away targets.

 

[pyrat]

I've seen a video that showed 2 explosions after air defense was active, so I think they might have used two ballistic missiles. Ukraine might have received MGM-140 (ATACMS) already, which has a range of ~300km and Ukraine requested these specifically to bomb these far away targets.

I don't know. I've seen some news videos mixing in video footage of the october 2022 blasts, without any captioning, so that was confusing to me.
I've read Russians say it's been drone vessels, but maybe it was an atacms, what do I know ?
I guess it's less frigthening to Russian tourists to say it was drone boats only able to operate at sea than long range weapons able to hit anywhere ?
i've read in BBC that Russia is asking tourists to travel back home though the continent, not through the Kerch bridge. Might be a long detour for some. But they get a chance to see "liberated" ruins.

Russian state television showed a map of the proposed route,through the occupied city of Melitopol, to the port city of Mariupol and onwards to theRussian city of Rostov. It reminded people to take their passports with them.

Officials have said they would reduce curfew times to let touriststhrough and the Russian army would keep the route “safe”. Those makingthe journey have also been advised to give way to army vehicles and columns andto carry cash with them.

Not too fun. I for one don't usually take my passport on holidays if I don't plan to leave the country (I fear I could lose it and it seems safe at home). If those regions were really Russian some form of Id card should suffice, I guess ?
And I thought Ukranians were slowly advancing towards Melitopol and Berdiansk, I hope the Russian government didn't mean the Russian tourists should show their passports at Ukranian checkpoints...
If I was there I think I'd rather look for a ferry. But capacity shoudl be limited, even with military reinforcements...

 

[TeDaDeS]

I think left is the roadway, right is the railway.



Alternative route via land:


I Indeed hear from multiple channels Russia claims Ukraine used underwater drones for the attack on the bridge and I would assume Russia should know.
But the video I've seen clearly shows air defense and what sounds like things traveling through the air. It was at night so not much else can be seen in the video.

Video as gif (no audio obviously):

 

[pyrat]

So does Wagner have a new playground ? How long will they stay in Belorussia ? coup d'etat in Niger.

 

[netcat]

How does he get his armada to Nigeria?

 

[pyrat]

Niger, not Nigeria.

He has or has had troops in Mali*, Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya*, Madagascar, Moçambique, and possibly Bourkina Fasso* and Chad*, according to wikipedia.I guess people can fly in airliners (charters?) and materiel can be bought anywhere and brought there from some nearby quarters... I don't know these things that well, but it sounds a little like last years coups in neighbouring Bourkina Fasso ?
(the 4 countries with * border Niger, only 3 neighbours are not connected to Wagner : Algeria, Nigeria, and Benin)

 

[TeDaDeS]

I Indeed hear from multiple channels Russia claims Ukraine used underwater drones for the attack on the bridge and I would assume Russia should know.

New videos emerged and confirm the attack on the bridge was performed by Ukrainian drone boats.
You can spot the boat on the left in the water, on the right you see the rails on the bridge.


It's the SeaBaby.

 

[pyrat]

Well, that was kind of secret (not quite, but not publicized). But then this week or last weekend some second order head of the NATO let go that they could let Ukraine be a member if they pact peace with Russia losing some territories. Which more or less sounded like allies are tired of too little Ukrainian gains on the ground for too much expense. So Ukraine on one side denies any will to compromise on land and on the other tries to broadcast any successes, like boasting these SeaBabies are designed and built by Ukraine in underground facilities and so successful and so. Since they weren't secret for the enemy anyway, they're just shining some light on them when it's politically/diplomatically convenient.
I have no idea what the state of the art is, I can trust them that the drones are sophisticated. But I guess if they were such a good weapon, the Russian fleet in the Azov and Black seas wouldn't be any problem already.
In any case, it troubles me to see everyone turning to war robots.

 

[TeDaDeS]

In any case, it troubles me to see everyone turning to war robots.

Since the movie Terminator I had the feeling all countries agreed we wouldn't have killer-robots. But I think the AI part frightened them and not so much the remote killing part (as was already done with rockets) as everyone appears to be very pleased with the more accurate, effective and efficient weapons (like drones). From there to an AI controller fleet of robots is a small step and probably everyone again will be happy with the cheap and more safe and effective way of dealing with enemy forces.

 

[pyrat]

I'm not Russian, but I assume it's very cheap to stay there at the moment. And since it's a touristic attraction anyway there will always be people going there. The chance of actually being injured is small, as it's a big chunk of land.
And I assume they'll advertise it as cheap and well protected by the military. There are many destinations to choose from but I guess people want to stay on a beach with some okay weather. Maybe they'll realize when arriving it was a bad decision, but maybe they have a great time there. Especially if you had low standards and expectations to begin with.

You seem to have been right. The source is pro-Ukranian but citing Russian sources. Crimea was the destination only for 2.7 % of Russians booking holidays in Russia (or occupied territories the Kremlin claims as Russian).
Yet that's not such a dip from other years as I expected, and it's still nearly 4 million tourist to Crimea in 8 months. It's only 50% - 60% less than 2022 and 40 % - 50 % less than record 2021. It's 21% cheaper, but I still find it less attractive than these numbers.