War in Ukraine

[levi]

The Financial Times claims US officials think Putin is asking China for some weapons. I could only read the headline because of paywall. WTF ? Wasn't Russia supposed to be the Goliath in this story ? First Syrian mercenaries and then Chinese weapons ? Is the Russian army in worse shape that we thought, or is this just preparatory work to split the world in their axis for WWIII and saving some army for the next theatres? And why on earth should China be interested ? (unless it was its plan all along, and Putin is just Xi Jinping's pawn, which would be very hard to believe for me). The paralympics just ended, if China was waiting for that at all. But come on, it doesn't make sense...

China's view of Russia is rather conflicted. I mean when they're tried to do business with them in the past they lie and the don't deliver, but on the posiitve side at least they're not old joe. And right now, not being old joe is kind of taking precedence.

 

[TeDaDeS]

I wonder when we have to rename the topic to WW3. This topic might be describing history for future students. When topics get archived usually only some basic things stay (text only?). So good to describe stuff if you want to read it over a few years

 

[levi]

Wait for NATO to get involved. So far everyone's been desperate not to get NATO involved, because that would more or less directly lead to WW3. I'm not convinced this is a great thing to archive, there's a bit of russian disinformation in this thread, because it's more or less impossible to distinguish between that and the truth without more context.

 

[λ the β-Redex Reducer]

Threads like this can be nice for archiving not because they show what really happened around the time of war, but because they show how people used to think. Many of our beliefs will be steered by propaganda, and this thread will probably be filled to the brim with messages communicating beliefs that are inspired by propaganda.

 

[TeDaDeS]

Wait for NATO to get involved. So far everyone's been desperate not to get NATO involved, because that would more or less directly lead to WW3. I'm not convinced this is a great thing to archive, there's a bit of russian disinformation in this thread, because it's more or less impossible to distinguish between that and the truth without more context.

We'll know after a while what was true and what wasn't, maybe. History will probably show this was the first large scale information war, propelled by tech companies. And hopefully we'll find some positivity in this thread regarding our stances and discussions.

 

[pyrat]

• The Financial Times claims US officials think Putin is asking China for some weapons. I could only read the headline because of paywall. WTF ? Wasn't Russia supposed to be the Goliath in this story ? First Syrian mercenaries and then Chinese weapons ? Is the Russian army in worse shape that we thought, or is this just preparatory work to split the world in their axis for WWIII and saving some army for the next theatres? And why on earth should China be interested ? (unless it was its plan all along, and Putin is just Xi Jinping's pawn, which would be very hard to believe for me). The paralympics just ended, if China was waiting for that at all. But come on, it doesn't make sense...

FWIW: Today both Russia and China say that Russia didn't ask any military help from China. So it may mean:
- US officials were wrong
- China didn't want to help, but didn't want to publically oppose Russia, so they agree to make believe it didn't happen
- They want to keep their secret plots secret...

Whatever...

 

[netcat]

It's probably US propaganda reinforcing the very popular notion that Russia is actually weak.

 

[FBnil]

See all the example of western propaganda here:

What nobody told you about Ukraine – mind blowing!

Shocking evidence of how the media worldwide is lying to humanity about what is really going on with Ukraine and Russia. A must see!

www.stopworldcontrol.com

Here's a view of the real Ukraine (part of it, because the other part is 8 years of bombing the others):

 

[netcat]

In every country there are people who believe everything on the 6 o'clock news. You could call them patriots or unflinching supporters of the regime. But these people also want to buy things. Putin blames the west but at some point the loss of McDonalds will become overwhelming.

 

[pyrat]

In every country there are people who believe everything on the 6 o'clock news. You could call them patriots or unflinching supporters of the regime.

What a loose of faith in humanity. Don't be so gloom, don't generalize, not all is lost... In some countries news are not at 6 o'clock. Otherwise, yes.

But these people also want to buy things. Putin blames the west but at some point the loss of McDonalds will become overwhelming.

But they won't lose McDonalds for long. Putin will simply expropiate McDonalds and put a friend on top or force the Russian executives to carry on. The burger flippers are already Russians.
In the soviet era it was a clash of two economic systems, centralized economy were a party wrote 5 year plans and decided what the people had to consume, whereas in the west private monopolists improvised what people had to consume in a way that looked like consumers were deciding something. Since McDonalds did not help to feed people compared to a factory mensa or whatever, there were no McDonalds in USSR. And long queues in the first McDonalds in Moscow the day it opened.
But now it's no longer soviet times, and Putin's authoritarism is capitallistic. The only point is can he get enough beef and potatoes to run McDonalds ? And Russia is big enough to get them. India is already saying they will take the lower prices and buy more oil from Russia (and I don't know if they can afford to pay the higher price elsewhere, so not unlike the EU maybe?). And China most likely will end up buying the same amounts of stuff from Russia it planned to buy for lower prices, call itself neutral (not helping or sanctioning) and pocket some profits.
There was this story on slashdot on Putin threatening Apple and Google executives in Russia to ban apps that pretended to help voters control electoral recounts. America is not exporting beff and potatoes to Russia, it just exports an ethereal brand, that only gives them money because Putin keeps recognizing trademark treaties. If we talk about aviation spare parts, well maybe these sanctions can be felt in Russia. And there're going to be more examples. But McDonalds ? Anyone can paint a clown in a restaurant.

Edit: protesters might overthrow Putin, or create enough pressure for him to change policy, or make it just easier for the oligarchs to remove him, or whatever. But they do it because they want to avoid war, not because of sanctions. None runs from police because he wants a Big Mac. Yet western sanctions are OK, not because of its effects on Russia, but because they pressure for the west to be more autonomous.

 

[netcat]

"the White House also warned Beijing not to bail out strategic ally and trading partner Russia, with a pending default on the cards for the nation. "President Putin is being put in a position to make choices about where he is going to have to put his financial resources," stated Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo. "They're in a position where they are going to have to make choices about what debts they pay going forward and those choices will ultimately put him in a position about whether he continues the invasion."

Money talks / propaganda walks

Post automatically merged: Mar 15, 2022

What a loose of faith in humanity. Don't be so gloom, don't generalize, not all is lost... In some countries news are not at 6 o'clock. Otherwise, yes.

But they won't lose McDonalds for long. Putin will simply expropiate McDonalds and put a friend on top or force the Russian executives to carry on. The burger flippers are already Russians.
In the soviet era it was a clash of two economic systems, centralized economy were a party wrote 5 year plans and decided what the people had to consume, whereas in the west private monopolists improvised what people had to consume in a way that looked like consumers were deciding something. Since McDonalds did not help to feed people compared to a factory mensa or whatever, there were no McDonalds in USSR. And long queues in the first McDonalds in Moscow the day it opened.
But now it's no longer soviet times, and Putin's authoritarism is capitallistic. The only point is can he get enough beef and potatoes to run McDonalds ? And Russia is big enough to get them. India is already saying they will take the lower prices and buy more oil from Russia (and I don't know if they can afford to pay the higher price elsewhere, so not unlike the EU maybe?). And China most likely will end up buying the same amounts of stuff from Russia it planned to buy for lower prices, call itself neutral (not helping or sanctioning) and pocket some profits.
There was this story on slashdot on Putin threatening Apple and Google executives in Russia to ban apps that pretended to help voters control electoral recounts. America is not exporting beff and potatoes to Russia, it just exports an ethereal brand, that only gives them money because Putin keeps recognizing trademark treaties. If we talk about aviation spare parts, well maybe these sanctions can be felt in Russia. And there're going to be more examples. But McDonalds ? Anyone can paint a clown in a restaurant.

Edit: protesters might overthrow Putin, or create enough pressure for him to change policy, or make it just easier for the oligarchs to remove him, or whatever. But they do it because they want to avoid war, not because of sanctions. None runs from police because he wants a Big Mac. Yet western sanctions are OK, not because of its effects on Russia, but because they pressure for the west to be more autonomous.

I used McDonalds as a euphemism for Western products in general.

Also, it's not that easy to fake the Golden Arches. But whatever.

 

[pyrat]

"the White House also warned Beijing not to bail out strategic ally and trading partner Russia, with a pending default on the cards for the nation. "President Putin is being put in a position to make choices about where he is going to have to put his financial resources," stated Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo. "They're in a position where they are going to have to make choices about what debts they pay going forward and those choices will ultimately put him in a position about whether he continues the invasion."

And whose problem is it when someone doesn't pay a debt ? The debtor's or the lender's?
If you or I have debts and don't pay them, we have a problem. If a small country which doesn't produce everything it needs or isn't in control of its economy defaults on debts, it has a problem.
But if a large country is tightly controlled by a dictator that can twist laws to his liking, produces quite a lot, even exports not so easy to replace resources, and has the 2nd standing army in the world defaults, then the lenders have a problem.

Fundamentals talk / fiat money bluffs

Post automatically merged: Mar 15, 2022

I used McDonalds as a euphemism for Western products in general.

You mean those that we manufacture in China ?

Also, it's not that easy to fake the Golden Arches. But whatever.

Well, they don't have to fake it exactly, they can easily do something better.

Again. Ahead with sanctions. But then let's install renewables, build factories, and reduce consumerism. Tariffs and embargos are too easy.

 

[netcat]

whose problem is it when someone doesn't pay a debt ? The debtor's or the lender's?

Both...... My point is that Russia does not have unlimited cash and where they spend it could be indicative of their might or lack thereof.

Well, they don't have to fake [McDonalds] exactly, they can easily do something better.

Maybe Russians don't want something better they want Americana.

Tariffs and embargos are too easy.

Tariffs are easy embargoes are hard.

 

[pyrat]

Both...... My point is that Russia does not have unlimited cash and where they spend it could be indicative of their might or lack thereof.

It has. Any central bank has unlimited cash. That's usually not enough, but then one has to look where they spend their real resources.
Putin can have infinite rubles. In fact he's offering/threatening to pay foreign debt in rubles. Makes no sense, but anyway.
He's also setting up rubles/rupees exchanges to redirect commerce to India.
So what ? You can only know what a ruble is worth by seeing what it can buy or sell outside Russia. So the question is what merchandise gets imported and exported.
Russia has already forbidden the export of some food.
And I'm puzzled by the EU forbidding agencies from rating Russian debt and Russian entities. Rating is a requiremnt for credit, but if there's fear of default ratings would be low, so it is really better to have no rating than a bad rating or .... ?

Maybe Russians don't want something better they want Americana.

Maybe. But most Italian restaurants I've been to weren't manned by Italians and I didn't care.
I doubt it's any big deal. But I read some statement in some western media from some Russian fleeing Russia stating fear that it ends up like North Korea. So, yeah, they may see it as a symptom.

Tariffs are easy embargoes are hard.

But I was comparing with reindustralization, etc.

 

[levi]

If a bank prints money that tends to push the value of that currency down (by comparison with other currencies in the main). That might work for people mainly in Russia paid in roubles, who only consume things made in Russia, but any time anyone needs anything from outside Russia will find it a lot more expensive suddenly. That may not be a problem presently for most average russians since they can't import anything from anywhere right now except for china, but I'd expect most russian MPs like their iphones.

 

[netcat]

no rating than a bad rating or .... ?

None is much worse. There is appetite for low rated junk bonds. Russian companies will not be able to borrow foreign currency which is often necessary to grow. It's a big deal.

I'd expect most russian MPs like their iphones

So they can tweet misinformation while eating a big mac.

 

[JDTAY]

So, President Zelensky just addressed US Congress. He called for a no-fly zone again. I’ve been wondering about how such a thing would play out. Everyone assumes Russia would nuke us, but it’s not like they want to be nuked either.

 

[levi]

Yeah, but none of us have suggested we're going to nuke Russia yet have we? Whereas Putin has basically said I've got these nukes and I'm not afraid to use them, so the question you need to ask is, do you fell lucky, punk?

I'm still a little unimpressed at what happened to the plan to send American F- planes to Poland so they could send their older MiG planes to Ukraine. Who kyboshed that plan? You could argue it would bring Poland or America into the war, but Poland especially is almost in it already.

 

[LoopStar]

Tbh I’m not afraid of Russia nuking anyone. The thermobaric weapons they have are devastating enough without the radioactive side effect of nukes. If push comes to shove I guess it’s more likely those would be used.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60571395

 

[levi]

From reading that, thermobaric weapons don't seem to be ICBMs or even self guided missiles capable of crossing great oceans yet. Russia could probably poke one of those at a Poilish city if they felt like starting that particular clusterfuck, but I reckon America are safe from them as of yet.