War in Ukraine

[FBnil]

I'm scared and am desperate for things to get better. I wish i could just switch off but I can't.

same feeling here.

For example, the news of

Spain:

The south of Spain is on strike (transport and fishers) because of the rise in expenses. So 73% of the eggs are not arriving,
source(Spanish): https://www.lainformacion.com/econo...2-menos-descarga-huevos/2862624/?autoref=true
600 million euro trade losses so far. For example: Green peas are ready to harvest but there is no packaging. Milk can not be transported. There are no transporters.
Spain: Talking to get Algerian gas. Biodiesel has collapsed, it's required for food now.

Netherlands:

Rotterdam: The arrival of sunflower oil was announced through the speaker of the supermarket. Only ONE package per household. Empty lots. Gone in seconds.
Netherlands: No jodium tablets (my farmacy checked all others)

source (Dutch): https://www.rtvnoord.nl/nieuws/9061...-binnen-enkele-seconden-zijn-de-schappen-leeg
There can't even be a run on sunflower oil... there is not enough to be able to make a run.

Grain prices will go up, worldwide:

La guerra en Ucrania ya compromete la oferta mundial de cereales de este año

La mayor amenaza para el mercado global es actualmente la alteración de los flujos exportadores globales por la suspensión de la salida de cereales de los puertos ucranianos a causa de la invasión del Kremlin.

www.lainformacion.com

So Ukraine has sunflower oil (or exports sunflower seeds, which are processed elsewhere in Europe).
Hungary has put a quotum on export of sunflower seeds, Europe is now negociating.
Indonesia has put a quotum on export of palm oil, which is a substitute for sunflower oil. Production was already reduced due to the corona pandemic.
Argentina has stopped the export of soy oil. Experts are not sure why, as there is enough plant-oil worldwide. So either to have enough nationally, or to sell at higher price later.
So the taste of your chips/crisps is going to be different once they start frying with other oil. Snackbars have a problem, though, so expect more carcinogens in fried snacks due to more re-use.

so everything is connected in such a way that one can ask oneself: Are these strikes manufactured or natural occuring?

Rosoboron export, the biggest monopoly on exports in Russia also has seen it's exports decimated due to the sanctions/blockade. Without export, also no import. So European revenue will go down, and we'll see collapsing producers and transporters. All connected.

 

[Null]

3 cosmonauts arrive at space station in yellow and blue

NEW YORK (AP) — Three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station on Friday wearing yellow flight suits with blue accents, colors that appeared to match the Ukrainian flag. The men were the first new arrivals on the space station since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine...

web.archive.org

 

[TeDaDeS]

Netherlands: No jodium tablets (my farmacy checked all others)

The Netherlands is suppose to hold a stock of tablets for emergencies, and they are restricting distribution as the tablet should be taken only during a specific time-frame of receiving radiation.
In case these are really needed they'll be distributed by the government.
While I rather have them stocked regionally I could understand also that they cold restrict it to prevent a large group of people from taking them pro-actively.

 

[pyrat]

same feeling here.

For example, the news of

Spain:

The south of Spain is on strike (transport and fishers) because of the rise in expenses. So 73% of the eggs are not arriving,
source(Spanish): https://www.lainformacion.com/econo...2-menos-descarga-huevos/2862624/?autoref=true
600 million euro trade losses so far. For example: Green peas are ready to harvest but there is no packaging. Milk can not be transported. There are no transporters.

Not sure it's only south of Spain. I don't know.

Spain: Talking to get Algerian gas. Biodiesel has collapsed, it's required for food now.

There are already (methane) gas tubes from Algeria to Spain and Italy. But there are also pipes from Algeria to Morocco and from Morocco to Spain.
Algeria is pro Polisario (West Sahara independence movement). Marocco is against (so against that it is occupying West Sahara).
Spain and EU used to be neutral, but slightly proPolisario, because the UN resolutions from decades ago are not being fulfilled by Morocco.
So Algeria was reducing gas sent to Morocco already before the Ukranian war. USA was recently pro Morocco (I can't remember whether it was Trump or Biden).

Yesterday Spain sent a letter in support of autonomy (not independence) for Sahara. Morocco in exchange would have recognized Spanish possession of a couple of African towns in Morocco vincinity (Ceuta and Melilla) that receive sometimes lots of immigrants depending on how the Morocco police behaves in the border (the Spanish police usually reacts let's say that like in the opposite way that EU is reacting to Ukranian refugees so far).
That'd be U-turn from Spanish (and EU's?) previous position on the referendum the UN wanted decades ago. But of course Morocco has been throttling both fluxes, that of its own gas to Spain and that of migrants to Spain, and finally achieved what it wanted. The abandoned gas pipes from Spain to France look likely to be finished now. ANd there's talk of new Pipes between Italy and Spain. I think Algeria won't like that, but I doubt they'll send less gas to Spain, I don't know.
(Note: the Spanish government is by PSOE (socialists, PSE) and Podemos- (left, GUE/NGL). Podemos said it wasn't aware of the move by PSOE, and the king of Spain was always friends with the king of Morocco).

Likewise Biden is I think in talks with Venezuela and UAE for oil and I fear what Xi Jingpin and him might have talked yesterday about Taiwan (no news anyway, my paranoia only).

Might not be a WW3 yet, but the economic ripple effects are indeed world wide.

Indonesia has put a quotum on export of palm oil, which is a substitute for sunflower oil.

For which use ? For human consumption palm oil has been found to increase risk of metastasis (there were rumours long ago, and proof in relatively recent papers), and sunflower oil I don't think has been found so.
There's also deforestation and mafia concerns about palm oil, but I guess that's not intrinsic and the mafia's could also deforest and plant something else.

Snackbars have a problem, though, so expect more carcinogens in fried snacks due to more re-use.

I hope they don't mix a carcinogen (reused fried oil) with palm oil that increases risk of metastasis. That'd be a very bad idea.

Are these strikes manufactured or natural occuring?

I'd say the strikes are naturally occuring and the fragility of the environment where they occur is manufactured.

Rosoboron export, the biggest monopoly on exports in Russia also has seen it's exports decimated due to the sanctions/blockade. Without export, also no import. So European revenue will go down, and we'll see collapsing producers and transporters. All connected.

Rosoboron will just reorient exports to Belarus, Syria, India, and possibly China, parts of Africa, etc. Globalisation will suffer and lots of things will need rebalancing, but in the end sanctions won't be so terrible for either Russia or the West. They may be bad meanwhile, that's true. But globalisatin was already doomed because of peak oil, and excessively energy intensive transport, so it's just a little acceleration. The fact that soemthign exists or can be made in the other side of your planet is no reason for you to be able to have it.

 

[FBnil]

@pyrat Insightful. In depth knowledge of Mediterranean countries and their economic interactions. Anchoring into the future by mentioning peak-oil, which indeed will be a hard blow for all of us if non-fossil has not taken off in time to soften the blow.

For which use ? For human consumption palm oil has been found to increase risk of metastasis (there were rumours long ago, and proof in relatively recent papers), and sunflower oil I don't think has been found so.

For both industrial as well as cooking oil. The reason being the price of fertilizer going up (which needs gas to be produced) and thus a lower expected yield this year. Thus to keep the price from inflating too much and keeping the population happy.

"We want to make sure that the raw materials for the domestic industries will remain here,"..."until prices return to a stable condition like before."

Indonesia imposes mandatory domestic sales for palm oil

Price limits on 20% of production for home consumption to curb inflation

asia.nikkei.com

Indonesia’s palm oil growers say the high cost of fertilizer will affect yields for the rest of this year which, with more expensive imports of wheat and corn, is likely to see ongoing government intervention to combat rising prices.

Indonesia restricts palm oil in heavy hand on exports

The government is trying every trick in the book to soften the blow of global food inflation.

www.afr.com

JAKARTA, March 18 (Reuters) - Indonesia has significantly raised its maximum palm oil export levy, a new government regulation showed on Friday, marking a new bid to control domestic cooking oil prices after previous measures failed to tackle the problem.

Indonesia hikes palm oil export levy amid accusations of 'policy panic' - NewsBreak

JAKARTA, March 18 (Reuters) - Indonesia has significantly raised its maximum palm oil export levy, a new government regulation showed on Friday, marking a new bid to control domestic cooking oil prices after previous measures failed to tackle the problem. The world's biggest exporter of the...

www.newsbreak.com

 

[λ the β-Redex Reducer]

I was going to say the news is just entertainment but now I watch news because I'm scared and am desperate for things to get better. I wish i could just switch off but I can't.

Why not just prepare? Is there still time for you to become self-sufficient?

 

[TeDaDeS]

Why not just prepare? Is there still time for you to become self-sufficient?

I'm not a farmer. I could take a loan, buy a small farm and try to make my own food.
But it will take years to master the art of farming and if there is a war I'll probably get robbed from my food.
It sounds more plausible to try to defend your local farmers or to travel to a safer location.
An alternative would be having some food in stock and tools, but those will only last for so long.

 

[λ the β-Redex Reducer]

travel to a safer location

That is what I am suggesting.

Move to a country with more rural space and then farm yourself. Do not depend on local farmers while having no production yourself, that is just foolish. Of course, this may be difficult to do for those who did not come prepared. Some people may have ran out of time to prep. But if you are resourceful then you might still have time.

 

[FBnil]

I'm not a farmer. I could take a loan, buy a small farm and try to make my own food.
But it will take years to master the art of farming and if there is a war I'll probably get robbed from my food.
It sounds more plausible to try to defend your local farmers or to travel to a safer location.
An alternative would be having some food in stock and tools, but those will only last for so long.

Farming is hard. Lots of factors like knowing what (natural) pesticide to apply when a plant or row of plants are withering. Harvesting is easy, but heavy work. Storing food for longterm is hard. Besides the pillages from thieves, the government can also take it away to "distribute". Because of thieves, farmers will only be receptive to protection from people they already know. They will shoot and not ask questions at all. Too many people that just have the idea to take over a farm (just look at South-Africa). So go make farm friends now Actually, I wouldn't mind a masterclass from @matzesu
cress grows very fast. Lettuce is very easy to garden behind your window, inside the house. All tubercles, potato, carrots, etc need deep ground, although I have potatoes in 40cm deep pots, so ymmv (smaller pots work, but the potatoes can not grow optimally). Potatoes hold also for a long time in the ground, so you can harvest when needed. Common mushroom, nothing easier: Use black garbage bags to cover them (they do not need sunlight, just heat and moisture). Spores develop to mushroom in 7 days. Note that you need to sterilize the ground first (or buy a bag from the store). https://ezmushroom.com/grow/how-to-grow-mushrooms-from-spores/
Learning from recent history, war inside a city, the humanity gets lost quickly. On the one side are the violent ones; on the other the passive I do nothing you owe me ones, which are more dangerous than you think because they are not combat ready. The violent ones, even though they can doublecross you, are more helpful but to not think highly of the other group causing tension inside mixed groups. Oh, solo is usually a no-no as you will get outnumbered. Just walking with a backpack and a look of purpose will make think that you have food in your backpack.

Supply shock - the problem with Just In Time delivery:

Spoiler: a disturbing video explaining what will happen, by example of what has happened in recent history (Civilization Is Only Nine Meals Away From Anarchy)

Please note that famines and shortages IS something Governments have prepared for and have action plans for it (just as there are action plans for different natural disasters, and simulations are being taught and trained for). The government will save you and forgive all debt. But your bank savings will be used to bail out some companies. And your property will be taken away for rationing (as the government knows best how to re-distribute the resources).

And just look at USA's black fridays... that is the new civilization.

 

[netcat]

Why not just prepare? Is there still time for you to become self-sufficient?

The two specific things I fear that compel me to watch the news are government reactions to covid and the plight of Ukrainians. It's a bit tricky to prep these fears away.

 

[pyrat]

Well, for me the reason not to prepare is that it only saves your life (if it even brings that). It doesn't solve the problem I fear, which is the planet and (less important but still) civilization going to waste. I prefer any very smaller chance to help turn the world in somewhere worlth living in than a bigger (still unsure) chance of surviving in hell on earth. If my species can't learn to live in peace with one another, then I may as well leave the planet to the cockroaches. Now If I enjoyed farming or part of this work, if I knew more about it, or if preparing would bring some sort of joy already, during preparation, not only once the hecatombe comes, it might make more sense.

 

[levi]

cress grows very fast. Lettuce is very easy to garden behind your window, inside the house. All tubercles, potato, carrots, etc need deep ground, although I have potatoes in 40cm deep pots, so ymmv (smaller pots work, but the potatoes can not grow optimally). Potatoes hold also for a long time in the ground, so you can harvest when needed. Common mushroom, nothing easier: Use black garbage bags to cover them (they do not need sunlight, just heat and moisture). Spores develop to mushroom in 7 days. Note that you need to sterilize the ground first (or buy a bag from the store). https://ezmushroom.com/grow/how-to-grow-mushrooms-from-spores/

We grow strawberries and gooseberries, and runner beans, and tomatoes and cucumber in the greenhouse (and plenty of herbs). Still need to buy in our bulk carbohydrates (rice, spuds, pasta), and the beans can be frozen after being chopped up, so they last about half the year, everything else is just the month or two when they become ready.

 

[pyrat]

(quasi)News roundup today:

• China insists they're not sending weapons or munitions to Russia. They're sending instead medicines and sleeping bags (if they don't get the size right that might be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Russian troops morale. Average man height in Russia 178 cm, in China 167.1 cm).
• Ukraine says Russia is forcibly deporting Ukranians from Mariúpol to Russia. Maybe Zelensky shouldn't have exchanged the mayor of Melitopol for 9 Russian prisoners. Now the Russians will be trying to capture 9 times the number of prisoners the Ukranians have so they have someone to exchange, and I guess defectors count as prisioners, so that may be a lot. Poor captured Ukranians. I think the UN complained that Ukraine was not following international law in sharing personal data of prisioners but I fear Putin won'tl be following anything..
• Zelensky does not seem to like all Ukranian politicians so much as the Melitopol mayor, since it has renewed martial law and suspended a few pro-Russian parties while the martial law lasts. Putin got half a dozen high ranking officers killed in Ukraine, hinting they have trouble commanding troops (else they wouldn't've been there), but Zelensky has already arrested a few alleged traitors, and seems nervous of having infiltrated Russian agents or Russian-friendly Ukranians leaking secrets or sabotaging.
• Putin would still be sending hundreds of assasins under cover to try to kill Zelensky and top government figures. I don't know. Maybe made sense (for Putin) at the start, but It doesn't seem so useful now. I don't think Ukranians ressist because Zelensky says so, but that Zelensky says so because many want to resist, so Zelensky or someone else does it matter? Today some dozen citizens from occupied Kherson stood in front of a Russian tank. Is that just because Zelensky is their president?
• Rumours go around that part of the circle around Putin wants to remove him (should I believe that ? it's said to come from the Ukranian secret service, which should have an agenda when publishing/leaking info). Apparently a couple of top FSB officials are in house arrest and is it true that Russian Defense minister Sergej Shoigu and chief of general staff Valerij Gerasimov have not appeared publically since late February ? Even if it was true it wouldn't mean they were against Putin and got caught, maybe Putin is just angry that they underperformed or didn't dare tell him the truth before the invasion... I fancy removing Putin may be harder than killing Zelensky, but if done it's more likely to have some impact in the war. Maybe.
• Belarus dissidents would have sabotaged rail from Belarus to Ukraine so that Russians can't bring stuff to Ukraine by train. So there's some opposition in Belarus too.
• The BBC says a theatre in Kiiv is continuing rehearsals. The play is set in 1942 in a bombed German city, so I fear they won't be lacking scenery.
• BBC says the exhausted workers in Chernobyl are finally being replaced with some volunteers (too few?). That's something at least. Some countries are delaying plans to close nuclear power plants. I wish they didn't.

 

[λ the β-Redex Reducer]

Well, for me the reason not to prepare is that it only saves your life (if it even brings that). It doesn't solve the problem I fear, which is the planet and (less important but still) civilization going to waste. I prefer any very smaller chance to help turn the world in somewhere worlth living in than a bigger (still unsure) chance of surviving in hell on earth. If my species can't learn to live in peace with one another, then I may as well leave the planet to the cockroaches. Now If I enjoyed farming or part of this work, if I knew more about it, or if preparing would bring some sort of joy already, during preparation, not only once the hecatombe comes, it might make more sense.

I also want to make the world a better place. But I want to do so by being the change that I want to see in the world. I want people to respect animals so I am vegan. I also want people to live independent and free in a way where their footprint benefits nature instead of destroying it, so I learn about perma-culture and work to become self-sufficient. My way of improving the wolrd is by improving myself because that is all that I can do.

As for farming, the fun of it is to become self-sufficient and to get better fruit.

 

[Null]

sleeping bags (if they don't get the size right that might be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Russian troops morale.

 

[FBnil]

for me the reason not to prepare is

So you ARE preparing... mentally. So that you are a guide and a rock later. A fountain of knowledge.

Rumours go around that part of the circle around Putin wants to remove him (should I believe that ? it's said to come from the Ukranian secret service, which should have an agenda when publishing/leaking info).

I read somewhere he changed a big number of his close people.




Donbass, docu 2016 from Anne-Laure Bonnel.


Friendly fire? Yup, friendly fire...

 

[TeDaDeS]

Donbass, docu 2016 from Anne-Laure Bonnel.
Friendly fire? Yup, friendly fire...

Some older report on Youtube:

 

[FBnil]

Not sure if funny, or deeply sad.

"Two Words", Moscov, 2022. - Awesome

15,341 points • 791 comments

9gag.com

 

[Askarus]

Fuel in Germany is not becoming overly expensive because oil become more expensive.
It's the companies which increase their margin because people THINK oil is getting more expensive.

Blue: - Oil price + tax
Red: - What oil companies earn

 

[netcat]

They always report "intense fighting" but it's rarely captured on film. It's usually just a lot of rockets and buildings bombed to hell. (I don't consider getting bombed fighting). Suspect Ukrainian casualties far outweigh those of Russia. But we don't want hear this. Indeed it would be counterproductive.