Ubuntu Edge - Ubuntu Smartphone Announcement?

[Askarus]

Come one guys.

That's not worth the money.

Get a cheap phone and wait for Pandora 2.

 

[EssoAir]

Yay! Only 29.5 million dollars to go! I /totally/ think this will work. There is absolutely /no/ way for this project to fail.

 

[dreamer]

^ there are many many ways for this project to fail.

 

[Scntrblob]

Yay! Only 29.5 million dollars to go! I /totally/ think this will work. There is absolutely /no/ way for this project to fail.

Would you please shut up?

 

[b_o_b]

Very interesting. My dream phone has a keyboard, but I am already losing hope I will ever see a Linux phone like that. This might be the 2nd best. Thinking about the double edge perk, but I only need one. Pretty sure once launched the price of the phone will be higher than 700 on the market so should be able to sell the extra one. 

Could also join forces with someone on this board -  preferably from the Netherlands. 

 

[dreamer]

My dream phone has a keyboard, but I am already losing hope I will ever see a Linux phone like that.

Same here. Right now my n900 will still do (as I have my pandora next to it nearly all the time).Some day in the not too far future (1-2 years) I wouldn't mind upgrading.

But indeed 'linux phone with hardware keyboard' will have to be the main specification.

And for those interested in the progress: ubuntu edge funding level

 

[WizardStan]

Since the $600 deal ended they've had a very steady line at about $25'000 per hour. Assuming that that average holds, that's about $600'000 per day, closing out at $18'000'000, plus the $3'000'000 they raised on the $600 deal, for a final total of $21'000'000. They need to get their hourly average up to $40'000 to even have a chance. There are a few hours where they did it, but it's clearly not sustainable. They need to pull out some serious advertising here.

 

[EssoAir]

If they can hold the 25,000/hr for the whole month than they will probably succeed because remember that at the end there will be a huge spike

 

[Exophase]

If they can hold the 25,000/hr for the whole month than they will probably succeed because remember that at the end there will be a huge spike

You count on the typical spike at the end but ignore that before that point contributions tend to trail off gradually..

 

[second exodous]

Well, yeah, 32 million is a lot of money, I still holding out hope but it is slowing now. We'll see where it is in 10 hours.

If they made a video on how it could be hacked and promised at least drivers that could be ported to other kernels then I think they would have a better chance. Canonical probably doesn't want it to be running other OSs besides the Android OS though but if they want this phone out they better cater more to the small coders out there.

 

[b_o_b]

They can also consider this to be market research. How many people are willing to pay 600 - 700 - 800 for a commercial version of this phone. Seems like that will be the plan if this fails. 

I don't think you can do better market research than this.  

 

[dreamer]

We'll see where it is in 10 hours days.

There, I fixed it for you.

 

[vcoleiro1]

Ok, so this was at $3,145,000 exactly 24 hours ago when I mentioned they had just sold out of the $600 tier.  24 hours later they have added $555,000 at an average of $23,125 / Hour.

The sad thing is that over the last 4 hours it has only added $30,000 at an average of $7,500 / Hour.  It has come to a screeching halt.

They have added a $1400 tier where you get 2 Edge phones ($700 a piece), but not many have taken it up.  They need to stop pussy footing around and introduce a $600 tier again.  Even then it will be hard pressed to make the target.

 

[vcoleiro1]

Canonical have listened to the backers (and everyone else) and added three new tiers. $625, $675 and $725.


The project has immediately taken off again. Currently at $3,942,000


Looks like they listened to me and will refund the difference to those that had already opted for the $830 tier.


According to their new tier plan attached below, I still don't like their chances it will be tough going, but at least it gives them a better chance.


Here's the update from Canonical:


More opportunities to get your Ubuntu Edge


Hi everyone


The last few days have been absolutely incredible -- over $3.5 million in the first 40 hours. We’ve broken records, we’ve attracted the attention of the world, and we’re marching closer and closer to bringing the Ubuntu Edge to life. $32 million is a huge number, and we’ve never danced around this fact. To get there, we’re going to need your help to bring family, friends, fans, and followers to the campaign.


This crowdfunding process has already provided us with a lot of great feedback, especially about our perks -- and we’ve been listening to it all. You told us you want more opportunities to get the Ubuntu Edge at a lower contribution level, so we went back to our spreadsheets and came up with a solution. Today we’re changing our perk levels. We’ll offer a limited number of phones at each level, and as each tier runs out the next ones will be made available, so act quickly to get the best deal!


You’ll only see the first few levels on the campaign page today, but continuing our habit of openness and transparency we want to share the whole plan with you.


Hundreds of you have already contributed $830 for an Ubuntu Edge, but don’t worry. We’ll refund the difference at the end of the campaign so you won’t lose out. We’ll contact you all directly with more information.


We need to keep the campaign momentum going. Please help by sharing the news and, of course, keep pledging!

 

[WizardStan]

So, adding up all the perks, under the old plan with just 5000 at $600 they needed to sell a total of 39940 units at an average price of $801.20

Under the new plan they need to sell 41488 at an average price of $771.30. That's a $30 production difference. Given the narrow margins on cell phones as it is and that a lot of the cost is absolutely fixed, that $30 could mean a huge difference in the specs that they ultimately select. Unless they're planning on having these first ones go at a loss and then make up the difference in future sales, but with $32'000'000 on the line I'm not sure that's a gamble I'd want to take.

The new tiers have certainly given them a much needed boost, and with enough momentum people might get more interested over time despite the increasing prices. Maybe they can pull it off.

 

[vcoleiro1]

Most likely they will get to $6 - $6.5 million and then start dead panning again as it will then be at the $775 tier.


Will see what happens, it sure is as I mentioned previously , a great example of product price sensitivity.

 

[EssoAir]

I wish Canonical would have just released the software and not put so much on the line. I'd rather have a Nexus 4 with Ubuntu OS on it simply because its a lot cheaper...

 

[WizardStan]

I wish Canonical would have just released the software and not put so much on the line.

There's no money to be made in that. Microsoft is learning the hard way that it is very hard to convince manufacturers to buy your operating system when there is a perfectly capable, flexible operating system basically for free. Google makes money off of advertising and app-store sales, Canonical doesn't really have access to either. YOU might pay to have an Ubuntu OS on your existing phone but you are in a very very small minority of a minority of a niche of users. There's just no way for Canonical to monetize a software-only solution here. Google has won that battle for now, and if anyone is going to compete it needs to be done over time and from a different direction, not head on. So they're taking the Apple direction, sell their own hardware with their operating system.After some time they may have an app store that is actually competitive against Android's and they can afford to give their OS to other vendors and still make money, but for right now there's no practical source of revenue without the hardware.

 

[EssoAir]

very very small minority of a minority of a niche of users

LOL! Well done *clap*

But what I'm saying is, you run a Kickstarter that promises to release the software and port it to various devices. So, if the Nexus 4 gets $2000 pledged to it,  it will receive a port. If it gets $4000, the port will be open source. And for every $1000 more it gets, thats another 6 months of guaranteed support and updates to ensue it keeps running like it did after the first install. And you could do the same thing for a bunch of devices (Galaxy S3, Galaxy S4, HTC One, Oppo Find 5 etc.) That way, people can vote with their money. So, the people that want to donate money to the project can, but not everyone has to if the initial $4000 "open source" mark is reached.

If I were them, I would have done this. I also think they could sell stuff like MHL adapters, HDMI cables, and other accessories that work well with Ubuntu for Phones.

They can do what they choose, obviously, but if they wanted to guarantee a successful campaign, that's how I would have done it. And of course, everything that makes it past those initial minimums is pure, 100% profit. No need to manufacture more and more devices, just buy a few dev units and port it over. 

 

[Asiyura]

Where did they say that Ubuntu Touch won't be open-source?
As far as I know, the beta version runs on all the latest Nexus devices…

And you can build it from source. 

They just want a physical device with the Ubuntu brand on it.
And it allows them to check the interest for this OS and get some advertising.