COVID-19 / Coronavirus Pandemic

[Phlyra]

To exhausted healthcare workers like me, Covid conspiracies are a kick in the teeth | Jeeves Wijesuriya

Coronavirus deniers demanding proof of the pandemic in hospitals are lucky they have not experienced it, says GP registrar Jeeves Wijesuriya

www.theguardian.com

 

[pyrat]

I'll fix that for them

Coronavirus deniers demanding proof of the pandemic in hospitals are lucky they have not experienced it yet

There are articles around too about former deniers who get COVID-19, and tell another story than they used to, from the hospital.

 

[FBnil]

Peru In debt 1000000000 dollars to be paid in 100 years to buy vaccines (and measures). 2 generations of servitude to pay that back.

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands they told healthcare workers that applied to help to basically f*ck off by the minister because they are not professional.

England (top link was Ireland - but the link was removed)
These figures are TOTAL registered death figures for ENGLAND only. In other words, deaths from EVERY category INCLUDING those deaths with the "covid19" category

Note that the November figures will be published on January 4th - so stay tuned

Link to Office of National Statistics a UK Gov website at the bottom

2006 = 470,326
2007 = 470,721
2008 = 475,763
2009 = 459,241
2010 = 461,017
2011 = 452,862
2012 = 466,779
2013 = 473,552
2014 = 468,875
2015 = 495,309
2016 = 490,791
2017 = 498,882
2018 = 505,859
2019 = 496,370
2020 = 517,093 <<<< Does not include Dec (December figures will be published around Feb 4th)


source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...guresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

So if we take @Phyla's source of "On Wednesday alone, 981 people died of Covid.", and say, that those 2 months (nov and dec) have 61 days and that say, 500 die a day, that is 61*500=30500 for a total of 499682 for 2020, still under 2018 numbers and "normal" compared to years like 2017 and 2015.
However, if we take that number as not a peak number, but the amount of people that die every day, then 61*1000=61000, and that would make the total 530182, which would mean a serious over-death compared to all other years. Stay tuned for the real numbers tomorrow.


edit:

Not covid, but related to pharma. The (indiscriminate) use of antibiotics starts the rise of multi-resistant strains...
Not sure if big farma is the badguy, I think it's regulations (in each country):

Among 2020's Most Underreported Stories: Pharmaceutical Profiteering May Accelerate Superbugs - Slashdot

Since 1976 "Project Censored," a U.S.-based nonprofit media watchdog organization, has been identifying "the news that didn't make the news," the most significant stories it believes are being systematically overlooked. Slashdot ran stories about its annual list of the year's most censored news...

science.slashdot.org

edit2: Added November, so we already see it's the highest number of them all. Let's wait for December.

Edit3 (in 2022), so the final figure for December is:
2020 =569700
So there is excess mortality, around 70000 excess deaths in 2020. THATS TWICE MY CALCULATED 30500 from before...

 

[pyrat]

There are so many ways to play with numbers:
469,182 * 12 /10 = 563018
Since you have the data for 10 months of 2020 (a couple of them without COVID-19, but I won't count that) and the year has 12 months.
They say in Italy they're going to have more deaths than in 1944 (WWII).

 

[pyrat]

So if we take @Phyla's source of "On Wednesday alone, 981 people died of Covid.", and say, that those 2 months (nov and dec) have 61 days and that say, 500 die a day, that is 61*500=30500 for a total of 499682 for 2020, still under 2018 numbers and "normal" compared to years like 2017 and 2015.

Wait. You are adding 30500 deaths from COVID in november + december to 469182 deaths for COVID + other causes in Jan-Oct . But in Nov- Dec there are going to be other causes of death besides COVID, so the total deaths of anything, are going to be much more than your 499682 for 2020, and that's what you should compare to total deaths of anything for 2017, 2015 or what have you.
Note [I'm not seeing data in the linked page it's either my content blockers or their bug over new year, I don't know]
[Edit: I apologize to native English speakers about my use of prepositions]

 

[JDTAY]

As far as I can tell, my county is sixth out of one hundred counties in North Carolina right now in percentage of COVID-19 tests positive over the last 14 days, at 19%.

The other five counties have uneven trajectories, due to low populations, and thus low testing. My county's trajectory is clearly upward though, with the last five days shown all being over 20%.

 

[Phlyra]

Peru In debt 1000000000 dollars to be paid in 100 years to buy vaccines (and measures). 2 generations of servitude to pay that back.

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands they told healthcare workers that applied to help to basically f*ck off by the minister because they are not professional.

England (top link was ireland, the occupied part)
These figures are TOTAL registered death figures for ENGLAND only. In other words, deaths from EVERY category INCLUDING those deaths with the "covid19" category

Note that the November figures will be published on January 4th - so stay tuned

Link to Office of National Statistics a UK Gov website at the bottom

2006 = 470,326
2007 = 470,721
2008 = 475,763
2009 = 459,241
2010 = 461,017
2011 = 452,862
2012 = 466,779
2013 = 473,552
2014 = 468,875
2015 = 495,309
2016 = 490,791
2017 = 498,882
2018 = 505,859
2019 = 496,370
2020 = 469,182 <<<< Does not inc. Nov and Dec (November figures will be published on January 4th)

source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...guresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

So if we take @Phyla's source of "On Wednesday alone, 981 people died of Covid.", and say, that those 2 months (nov and dec) have 61 days and that say, 500 die a day, that is 61*500=30500 for a total of 499682 for 2020, still under 2018 numbers and "normal" compared to years like 2017 and 2015.
However, if we take that number as not a peak number, but the amount of people that die every day, then 61*1000=61000, and that would make the total 530182, which would mean a serious over-death compared to all other years. Stay tuned for the real numbers tomorrow.


edit:

Not covid, but related to pharma. The (indiscriminate) use of antibiotics starts the rise of multi-resistant strains...
Not sure if big farma is the badguy, I think it's regulations (in each country):

Among 2020's Most Underreported Stories: Pharmaceutical Profiteering May Accelerate Superbugs - Slashdot

Since 1976 "Project Censored," a U.S.-based nonprofit media watchdog organization, has been identifying "the news that didn't make the news," the most significant stories it believes are being systematically overlooked. Slashdot ran stories about its annual list of the year's most censored news...

science.slashdot.org

Now try to factor in all the deaths that have been mitigated by not “carrying on as normal” during a pandemic... Oh, and try telling hospital and funeral staff, see what reaction you get.

 

[FBnil]

469,182 * 12 /10 = 563018

good one. Yes, that could be a good projection, but let's wait for the real data. Then maybe adjust for the population growth, and see.
And indeed, I should add a bigger number than 1000 (to adjust for all other deaths).

@JDTAY contagion is exponential but depends on contact, so with fewer population, it does not mean that people are evenly scattered. Some countries could have vast empty spaces and overpopulated cities. Some counties might have had a harvest festival (or other social gathering) that skews numbers. So it's expected to be "different", but not too much. Do you have numbers for me? (or a place where we can look at them)

Post automatically merged: Jan 3, 2021

Now try to factor in all the deaths that have been mitigated by not “carrying on as normal” during a pandemic...

That IS a tough one. I've seen old people houses and there are 2 type of people: They have more time to read, and do activities, or they have more time to be depressed and dwindle.
I've seen car accidents go down due to less traffic. I've seen more near-accidents due to people not driving as often and "forgetting" how to drive properly (i.e.: the a**holes are doing more dangerous fast driving and the unsecure are doing more dangerous slow driving).
I've seen people being postponed operations, and people grown fatter and less healthy. But I also see the neighbours go out to jog and taking the dog out to run more than usual.
I've seen people spend more time with their families (poor but happy), and people commiting suicide because they could not go on (with their small business) poor broke and depressed.
I've seen people stay inside, I've seen people protesting.
too many factors. buffer overflow.

 

[pyrat]

Now try to factor in all the deaths that have been mitigated by not “carrying on as normal” during a pandemic... Oh, and try telling hospital and funeral staff, see what reaction you get.

I've heard classical flu is down 95%-99% in 2020 (earlier effort in flu vaccination + all measures against COVID stop influenza too ) but there seems to be worse data in 2020 due to many health systems having more urgent work than flu statistics.
Pity that we replaced flu with something 52 times worse (UK, 2018 1,598 deaths of flu, UK 2020 82,957 deaths of covid-19, according to death certificates)

 

[JDTAY]

Do you have numbers for me? (or a place where we can look at them)

NCDHHS Releases Plan, Data Dashboard Updates for Next Phase of COVID-19 Response

The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services today released its plan for the current stage of the pandemic, Moving Forward Together (Spanish). NCDHHS also announced upcoming changes to its COVID-19 Data Dashboard starting March 23.

covid19.ncdhhs.gov

Scroll down to percent positive by county. The other five counties with higher than 19% positive haven't done more than 500 tests on any single day. My county (Gaston) regularly does over 1000 in a day.

Edit: One more link I'd like to share. The North Carolina COVID-19 County Alert System.

North Carolina Respiratory Virus Summary Dashboard | NC COVID-19

covid19.ncdhhs.gov

When they first unveiled it, there were ten highest alert counties, and my county was one of them. Now there are sixty-five highest alert counties, and it basically means nothing. They are supposed to update it in one or two days though. My expectation is that they'll add a new highest alert tier, and my county will be in it. They might even impose extra restrictions on this theoretical new highest alert tier. We'll see soon.

 

[FBnil]

Three-day old baby in Tripura dies after swab taken for Covid-19 test, govt orders probe

The fbaby’s parents said he started bleeding from the nose after his swab sample was taken and died shortly thereafter.

www.hindustantimes.com

Brits keep coming to Netherlands. Netherlands says: Go away!

Britten blijven Nederland bezoeken, marechaussee heeft al 10 toeristen toegang geweigerd

De Koninklijke Marechaussee heeft de afgelopen drie dagen minstens tien Britten de toegang tot Nederland geweigerd.

www.hartvannederland.nl

@JDTAY Nice dashboard! "Positives test as a percent of total tests". As expected, after xmas, people went to test themselves and were positive.
From them "Hospitalizations" dashboard: The ICU stays constant, but hospitalized is a straight line going up, that IS weird; I would expect a small correlation. Maybe they have found a way to treat without requiring ICU?

 

[JDTAY]

From them "Hospitalizations" dashboard: The ICU stays constant, but hospitalized is a straight line going up, that IS weird; I would expect a small correlation. Maybe they have found a way to treat without requiring ICU?

If you look more closely, even though the total ICU occupancy is the same, the amount of COVID-19 patients in the ICU is going up, from 500 at the start of December to 750 at the end of December. I guess COVID-19 patients are just displacing other people who would normally go to the ICU.

 

[Phlyra]

Three-day old baby in Tripura dies after swab taken for Covid-19 test, govt orders probe

The fbaby’s parents said he started bleeding from the nose after his swab sample was taken and died shortly thereafter.

www.hindustantimes.com

Brits keep coming to Netherlands. Netherlands says: Go away!

Britten blijven Nederland bezoeken, marechaussee heeft al 10 toeristen toegang geweigerd

De Koninklijke Marechaussee heeft de afgelopen drie dagen minstens tien Britten de toegang tot Nederland geweigerd.

www.hartvannederland.nl

@JDTAY Nice dashboard! "Positives test as a percent of total tests". As expected, after xmas, people went to test themselves and were positive.
From them "Hospitalizations" dashboard: The ICU stays constant, but hospitalized is a straight line going up, that IS weird; I would expect a small correlation. Maybe they have found a way to treat without requiring ICU?

Covid-19 patients in need of an ICU are being transferred away from Kent hospitals because they’ve reached capacity in their ICUs (which, as per one of my comments in the old Covid-19 thread, may still be lower than pre-Covid-19 capacity because of the staff : patient ratio being affected by staff off sick with Covid-19...)

 

[FBnil]

I guess COVID-19 patients are just displacing other people who would normally go to the ICU.

But there are still empty-but-staffed ICU beds available (that lightblue in the charts). That could be true for December, where everybody wants to celebrate at home with the family, but not this month, right? Or are they really saying "we deny you healthcare, although we have capacity"?

 

[levi]

I don't really understand why hospitals would say they can't treat any more people when they're most empty. Who benefits from that? Maybe the porters who don't have to haul so many heavy trollies about, but generally speaking they don't have much say.

 

[FBnil]

I don't really understand why hospitals would say they can't treat any more people when they're most empty. Who benefits from that? Maybe the porters who don't have to haul so many heavy trollies about, but generally speaking they don't have much say.

Continued support
Accepting a patient gives a hospital the liability that a patient will be treated and not die. If there is not enough capable staff (with that I mean, a nurse that has had the training to ALSO handle covid patients) then even if you have a big hospital, you can not treat the patient, nor accept the patient.
When you accept a patient, you will need to treat the patient every day: cleaning, laundry, cook, nurse, doctor need to be available for an expected period of time.

Capacity management
Also, I've seen hospitals stop non life threatening appointments during the new year to have a bit more capacity for burned victims.
Capacity management is also a factor.
Empty beds is ok, but too many empty beds is bad because you run with a loss (need to make a profit -> capacity needs to be near 100% to do so). But some patients you can visit once a day (low maintenance -
"How's your leg, son?") and others you need to babysit (Intensive care unit - "Are you still breathing?"). So capacity is not only "beds", but also "care", not all patients need the same care so there is this beds+patients+staff entangled thing going on.

Hospital logistics is hard.
So, you have a kidney operated person and a person with a broken leg, you can put those together in 1 room with some curtains in between, but covid patients, those are contagious, so they need to be isolated from other patients, maybe a separate wing AND airco's that do not contaminate the other regular patients. So if you do not have that, you need to put 1 per room, which could have the normal capacity of 6 or 4 patients.
So a cleaning lady needs special access to the aids ward (through a badge), because cleaning is a bit more stricter there, idemdito with covid patients.

 

[levi]

Yes, but if it's any of those reasons, it's justifiable, so no scandal. That's what I meant by mostly empty; they have capacity and trained staff, but they're choosing not to treat people, which is what those people in that video seemed to be trying to say.

 

[FBnil]

Pfizer-BioNTech
Reactions include (on one subject):

• Inflammation of brain and spine (new!)
• Convulsions due to allergic reaction
• full body diminished muscle strength

001. La Secretaría de Salud estudia el caso de la médica que presentó una reacción clínica posterior a la vacunación contra la COVID-19

Se está siguiendo el protocolo de estudio de eventos supuestamente atribuibles a la vacunación e inmunización, establecido por la COFEPRIS, la Dirección General de Epidemiología y el Centro Nacional para la Salud de la Infancia y la Adolescencia

www.gob.mx

Person (32 year old) is stable, after being a few hours in ICU. Reaction took place 30 minutes after inoculation.

 

[Linux-SWAT]

Person, aka guinea pig :^)

 

[pyrat]

La doctora cuenta con antecedente de alergia al Trimetroprim con sulfametoxazol, misma que puede ocasionar cuadros graves e inclusive la muerte y se caracteriza, entre otras cosas, por erupciones cutáneas, angioedema y reacción anafiláctica.

I thought I could read Spanish, but this paragraph beats me.
I think they say the vaccinated patient had previous allergy to some drug. I guess it must be an allergy that was not a known contraindication.
Now the question is how many people are vaccinated, how many vaccinated people get severe adverse effects and how many unvaccinated people get severe effects from COVID-19.
Then you will eventually know whether you get more risk from accepting or refusing the vaccine. Rinse and repeat for each different vaccine, of course.
But I'm not very worried about short term effects, we at least have some data on those (the more the better, but there's something).
I'm more worried about long term, since the trials are scheduled for 2 years and the emergency use authorisations are given after 2/3 months of trial.
Long term effects may not be so spectacular and harder to attribute to the vaccine (other causes may accumulate over time) but hopefully with milions of people vaccinated you could see something existing or (rehopefully) not one or two years down the road.