Will We All Have Our Pandora's By Xmas?

[Pleng]

Let's face it, we don't really need another estimate from the OP team. Every time they sound more and more confident with themselves about the validity of the estimate, and every time they've been way off the mark!

 

[Izomiac]

Let's face it, we don't really need another estimate from the OP team. Every time they sound more and more confident with themselves about the validity of the estimate, and every time they've been way off the mark!

But one day they will be right... Unless they quit giving estimates, at which point the trolls would become a lot more believable.

 

[SNESFAN]

Let's face it, we don't really need another estimate from the OP team. Every time they sound more and more confident with themselves about the validity of the estimate, and every time they've been way off the mark!

But one day they will be right... Unless they quit giving estimates, at which point the trolls would become a lot more believable.

ya know... it only takes an official OVER estimate to resolve that whole thing.... then a retractatory OPPS! SURPRISE! look what I got! .............. just sayin

EDIT: ya know that brings up a story of when I was in iraq. When we first got there we were told, go in, take over iraq, then we're going home this was in march 2002... So 2 months later (i know right?) I was sitting in baghdad waiting on the plane to go home.... they said... it got kicked back to july, and we'd be home on independance day.... independance day (4th july) came and went... then we got another promise that we'd be going hom in september (labor day or something??) came and went... then promise for thanksgiving... then xmas... then new years... then finally in febuary of 03' they sent us home. After looking back at the whole thing. If they were to have told us... you're going over for 2 years like every other overseas asignment.... I'd be cool with that... then be festivly surprised when we found out it was going to be half of that.... but it was the constantly working for a certian date from what seemed to be legitimate estimates and having them pushed back over and over agian that made the time drag on for what seemed like forever.

The second time I went to iraq, I was told ahead of time it would be a year. It didn't seem nearly 1/10th as long for some reason... hmm wonder why? Hope you all enjoyed story time kiddies :big grin:

 

[VRAndy]

I have got an e-mail from OP sale department about mid NOV as a shipping time.

Mine says Late November. ... But I think they meant '08.

 

[Pleng]

ya know... it only takes an official OVER estimate to resolve that whole thing.... then a retractatory OPPS! SURPRISE! look what I got! .............. just sayin

Well yes and no. If they really truly believed that it would be ready last December, they could have said May 09 to give themselves a three month buffer zone. Even that apparently extremely OVER cautious approach would have led to them being 6+ months out...

 

[SNESFAN]

Well yes and no. If they really truly believed that it would be ready last December, they could have said May 09 to give themselves a three month buffer zone. Even that apparently extremely OVER cautious approach would have led to them being 6+ months out...

Still think in that situation, the big leap delay approach is better than the breadcrumb approach (read my story )

 

[Jourdy288]

Yeah, but if something goes wrong... well it isn't pretty. The best approach is actually the big leaping breadcrumb, also known as the rainbow. You get closer and closer, but it stays far off in the distance.

 

[Jourdy288]

Whoops, double post.

 

[relapse808]

Looking at the project history I am going to say it will NOT be shipped by christmas to anyone. I am not trying to think with a "glass half empty", I am just trying to be realistic. I think I want a pandora in my hand as much as everyone else on the forum.

 

[VRAndy]

ya know... it only takes an official OVER estimate to resolve that whole thing.... then a retractatory OPPS! SURPRISE! look what I got! .............. just sayin

Well yes and no. If they really truly believed that it would be ready last December, they could have said May 09 to give themselves a three month buffer zone. Even that apparently extremely OVER cautious approach would have led to them being 6+ months out...

What was REALLY needed was realistic, in depth time estimates. They didn't do this.

To do a good time estimate you really need to go through step-by-step, day-by-day and add everything up. This is tedious work, but if you start estimating large chunks only, then you'll come up with ridiculously optimistic time estimates. It's a common mistake.

Imagine the Pandora was a cake.

Last September :
"We've just got to bake it. The directions say twenty minutes."
(At this stage all the other steps are not even being properly considered because they're "easy". Don't worry about flour. You can get that at the store.)

Last October: ( 10 minutes in )
"Good news! We've completed the grocery list, and are heading out to the store now! As soon as we get back, the cake will be ready in twenty minutes!"

[Grocery store refused to take credit cards : Excused 20 minute Delay ]

March : (30 minutes in )
"Good news! We're back from the Grocery store with everything we need! We just need to mix all the ingredients together and then the cake will be ready in twenty minutes!"

April : (40 minutes in )
"Ok, we had a bit of a delay, all our measuring cups were in metric, and the directions were from America, but with a little help from Texas Instruments we've been able to work through that. We just need to put everything together, then the cake will be ready in twenty minutes!"
"Don't lose faith now! We're on the home stretch!"

June : (50 minutes in )
"Not much to report. We're just mixing the ingredients according to the instructions. Pretty soon we're going to start baking, so the cake will be ready in just over twenty minutes. "

August : (1 hour 10 minutes in )
"Hurray! The ingredients are all mixed in the mixing bowl! We took turns licking the spoon, and I can tell you we're all pleased with the result. Now we just need to pour it into the pan."
"In other news we're going to need to pre-heat the oven for twenty minutes, so we're going to start that now."
"We're really excited that we've finally gotten to the "oven" stage of the process."

September ( 1 hour 20 minutes in )
"All the ingredients are mixed, and in the pan. We're just waiting on the pre-heating. Once that's complete the cake will be ready in twenty minutes."

October ( 1 hour 30 minutes in )
"The Cake is in the oven! This is it. This is the final stretch! The cake will well and truly be ready in twenty minutes!"

December ( 1 hour 50 minutes in )
"The cake is done! It's great to finally be at the end of this long journey".
"Before we can serve the cake we need to put the icing on, and we're going to do that as soon as it cools down!"

January ( 2 hours in )
"The cake is cool enough to touch. Let me tell you, it smells fantastic. We've just started the icing process, and I think you're all going to be very pleased with the results."

February ( 2 hours 10 minutes in )
"CAKE! COME AND GET IT!"​

However, note that the cake does finally get served in this story, and that it is probably delicious. (It's chocolate.)

 

[WizardStan]

However, note that the cake does finally get served in this story, and that it is probably delicious. (It's chocolate.)

Are you sure? The prototype cake looks vanilla.

 

[VRAndy]

They use vanilla for the prototype so they easily tell if it's burnt.

 

[wermy]

Great analogy... But, as we all know, the cake is a lie.

 

[Sphinxter]

Some of us could die first.

 

[Jourdy288]

But despite it, some of will be Still Alive, like Miss Daisy.

:lol:

 

[Gary13579]

I must apologize for last nights behaviour. I get defensive when I'm drinking ^^.

 

[Asmo]

 

[Near_Kstor]

thecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisaliethecakeisalie


So... yeah.... I was trying to postpone my payment until I could see a finished Pandora or at least receive some kind of final date, with PROOF... But is appears that's not the case... I really need to decide fast, since I bet they aren't holding preorders that are not paid for...

 

[marshal]

lol good one !

 

[(naw)mcx]

i lol'd therfore i sav'd.