What's Your Level Of P&|a Commitment

[HackModford]

I voted December, because by that time I'll probably want a macbook pro more than the pandora... :rolleyes: But I'll probably stay in for a long time.

 

[christo930]

Besides "No Qutting", Looks like the biggest spike on the list is shaping up to be September '09.

The one year pre-order milestone is in September, that can't be a coincidence.

I know it's dangerous to trust Internet polls, and also dangerous to extrapolate from a small sample size, but that's 25% threatening to cancel before the end of September! I Sure hope they ship out before that one year milestone.

Have you ever heard of "the wisdom of crowds"? Just as a dumb example, those guess the number of jelly beans contests... If you take the average of the guesses, the average will be extremely close. Much better than the individual guesses.

Chris

 

[Sphinxter]

So you're saying the mean loser's guess will always be more accurate than calculating the jar's displacement in bean units? Exactly how many contests you entered and won with that and why the hell would they ever tell you everyone else's guess in the first place? Every heard of the wisdom of math?

 

[gp2.eXe]

So you're saying the mean loser's guess will always be more accurate than calculating the jar's displacement in bean units? Exactly how many contests you entered and won with that and why the hell would they ever tell you everyone else's guess in the first place? Every heard of the wisdom of math?

ummm... :unsure:

Have you ever heard of "the wisdom of crowds"? Just as a dumb example, those guess the number of jelly beans contests... If you take the average of the guesses, the average will be extremely close. Much better than the individual guesses.

Chris

I... don't think he was very serious there...
But I might be wrong.

 

[Sphinxter]

I must know, I may have wasted all that time studying and been doing it wrong all these years..

 

[LastPucho]

Death: Mom didn't raise a quitter.

That, or the Pandora team quitting. Very improbable though... ^_^

 

[christo930]

So you're saying the mean loser's guess will always be more accurate than calculating the jar's displacement in bean units? Exactly how many contests you entered and won with that and why the hell would they ever tell you everyone else's guess in the first place? Every heard of the wisdom of math?

This works and it works with other stuff too. It's (jelly beans) not a very important example and you can probably get pretty close with math but crowds will do it too. This concept is one of the principles of the free market.


Chris

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_Crowds


PS.. I don't know why you have to be a dick about it.

 

[Tom`]

So you're saying the mean loser's guess will always be more accurate than calculating the jar's displacement in bean units? Exactly how many contests you entered and won with that and why the hell would they ever tell you everyone else's guess in the first place? Every heard of the wisdom of math?

This works and it works with other stuff too. It's (jelly beans"] not a very important example and you can probably get pretty close with math but crowds will do it too. This concept is one of the principles of the free market.[/quote]Chris

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_Crowds

Well, one problem is that it requires a large, well-informed crowd. Hence why the initial "Guess the release date" thread's average never came close. In general, this may work well for something that relies on observation (as in your example and that given in the article), but not necessarily for predicting future events.

As the article points out, it also requires the individuals to both be able to form their own opinion independently, but also to share information freely, which when dealing with a large group of humans will often be mutually exclusive - the more easily people share information, the greater the potential for individuals to adopt an opinion simply because those close to them have a particular opinion, rather than evaluating the data independently.

See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communal_reinforcement and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum, among others.

 

[Sphinxter]

Probably just realized my sample would be skewed by people who didn't even buy one.

 

[VRAndy]

I'll bet if you took the average of everyone who intelligently calculated the count, you'd come up with a very good answer.

But I'm not sure what christo930, is getting at. This isn't about predicting when Pandora will ship. Is the idea that this thread accurately reflects the date that there will be a rush on OpenPandora to refund moneys?

 

[Archaemic]

I haven't preordered my Pandora. I'm waiting for the second batch. However, for me, I'm also hoping the Pandora isn't seriously obsoleted by the time it comes out. There's already OMAP4 and Cortex-A9, but I'm hoping nothing really big comes out in the mean time. If something just like the Pandora, but with more power, comparable battery life and a supporting community comes out, I'm afraid I'll have to jump ship. Just the way it is :/ That doesn't look like it's going to happen, though.

 

[OpenPANDORA]

Death - Mom didn't raise a quitter.

e.g.

http://www.gp32x.de/board/index.php?showtopic=47985

 

[openthebox]

I'm happy with waiting, and I have plenty to do in the meantime. I've wanted a device like this since I was a kid - I've waited more than fifteen years for such a thing, so waiting a little while longer isn't going to make any difference to me.

+1, my exact sentiment (except the kid part).

... I'm also hoping the Pandora isn't seriously obsoleted by the time it comes out. There's already OMAP4 and Cortex-A9, but I'm hoping nothing really big comes out in the mean time. If something just like the Pandora, but with more power, comparable battery life and a supporting community comes out, I'm afraid I'll have to jump ship. Just the way it is :/ That doesn't look like it's going to happen, though.

I really doubt it will happen anytime soon. Maybe after seeing the sucess of the Pandora launch, then companies would think about building such a device. If they do, I think they will price it in the $500 range for all the things it can do.

 

[christo930]

So you're saying the mean loser's guess will always be more accurate than calculating the jar's displacement in bean units? Exactly how many contests you entered and won with that and why the hell would they ever tell you everyone else's guess in the first place? Every heard of the wisdom of math?

Different people will choose different assumptions. (Jelly Bean calculations are not the exact science you seem to imagine."]
I'll bet if you took the average of everyone who intelligently calculated the count, you'd come up with a very good answer.

But I'm not sure what christo930, is getting at. This isn't about predicting when Pandora will ship. Is the idea that this thread accurately reflects the date that there will be a rush on OpenPandora to refund moneys?[/quote]It was really just a weird trivia thing.

But on the other hand, as it gets closer to release our guesses are bound to get more accurate. After all, the windows of possible release months is getting pretty small. It's almost a given it will be released this year, we know it won't be this month, which only leaves 6 months.

Chris

 

[devhace]

The problem is that we have to have threads like this for this product. "How long are you willing to wait" doesnt sound like a good business model haha.

 

[lingenfr]

But on the other hand, as it gets closer to release our guesses are bound to get more accurate.

Actually, it is rather hard to assess whether we are getting any closer to release. It is accurate to say that we are getting farther from the original release date. As we can't seem to get any regular, informative progress reports, I am trying to ask a specific question each week. Last week, Craig responded pretty promptly which was encouraging. I've done the same thing this week and will hopefully get a response. If by 1 Aug I don't have a ship date for my Pandora or a very solid base of information to determine a ship date, I will ask for a refund. My patience is directly correlated to the level of information we receive which up to this point has been lacking. The 'you can have it good or you can have it fast' doesn't make it with me as I have known many engineers who will tweak forever. Good for those who intend to wait forever. It will be interesting to see if their commitment continues if/when a similar device is released. I think we can expect to begin seeing new device announcements in Sep/Oct as normally happens each year in preparation for trade shows. Not a gratuitous complaint, just explaining my vote.

 

[Prometheus]

It will be interesting to see if their commitment continues if/when a similar device is released.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'd like to respond to this with my own point of view, if I may; I have no interest in potential similar devices which may or may not do similar things - my interest is in this device, and the community that goes with it.

 

[Kyo]

A long long time ago I paid for something which I was told would be arriving shortly after (Originally they said they would not start preorders till they were sure they could deliver within 30 days), it was delayed. I was ok with that, i've been told an estimate, so a delay is reasonable. Then it was delayed again. And again. Every time we were finally a little closer the release date was reset to "in two months". Now, I got a coupon for my birthday at the end of august, and then purchased a preorder with money provided by my father in exchange for the coupon (actually I still have the coupon, maybe I should ask him for the money again). If I still don't have my pandora by my birthday, I will cancel my preorder and ask for my money back, because that will be the point when I have been "invested" in it. Not the actual preorder, mind you, but I gave up getting a present straight away for the pandora. So yeah, I'm patient but not endlessly patient. If it does get delayed till late september or later, I'll cancel my order and buy myself something else for the money. I'll probably still get a pandora maybe from the second or third batch.

 

[christo930]

. If I still don't have my pandora by my birthday, I will cancel my preorder and ask for my money back, because that will be the point when I have been "invested" in it. Not the actual preorder, mind you, but I gave up getting a present straight away for the pandora. So yeah, I'm patient but not endlessly patient. If it does get delayed till late september or later, I'll cancel my order and buy myself something else for the money. I'll probably still get a pandora maybe from the second or third batch.

Can you imagine the amount of crying that would be going on here if Gamepark did the same exact thing as OP did? The idea of prepaying for something is just a bad idea. People pre-paid almost a year ago and have nothing to show for their money which had more purchasing power a year ago than it does today so even if you got a refund, it would only be a partial refund because you won't get 330 in purhasing power back if you get 330 back. You have effectively invested in OP without getting paid. If you took that same money and invested it at the bottom of the stock market you would have much more money, perhaps triple + dividends. I am not trying to bash OP, I am just showing what happens when you pre-pay for something a year in advance. You are simply investing in OP without any financial gain.

Chris

 

[bzar]

I see the situation more like this: Few people, known to be talented, start making this really cool handheld I want to happen. They need money to get it done. I donate money to them, and they promise to give me one of the first units when they come out. Yes, I see the situation like this. Of course I wouldn't have donated as much as I paid if I didn't get a unit for it. If you think of it this way, you'll start using less energy thinking how you've been screwed over as a customer, ripped off, lied to or anything like that. If you knew the risks when you got on the wagon, you shouldn't be complaining. Just concentrate on being happy that the pandora is happening at all. We're all anxious to get on with it here.