EvilDragon said:
Humm, that's why I hate giving guesstimations
Who said October? I just said, my birthday wish is that EVERYTHING (including shipping to you) will be done then
...
So it can be anything between early September and mid October.
There's a degree of cynicism running through the community in recent months, especially with regard to date guestimates. Your guestimates are more encouraging because they come backed with supporting data - you tend to say (to paraphrase) "somewhere around this date BECAUSE of X, Y, and Z". Which IMHO is a lot better than "I'm pretty confident about this date".
Look at it this way. In October OpenPandora were saying "Novemeber, maybe December". Every single projection since then (including that guestimate) has been overly optimistic. This will tend to breed a tendency to imagine that any given estimation is, as we've been trained to expect over the last 3/4 of a year, optimistic and the project will actually take longer. The "October" estimate seems to have been made using data as provided by OpenPandora with an eye to not being
excessively optimistic.
Take, for example, the fact that an August/October delivery date for a US customer relies on nothing having gone particularly wrong for OpenPandora from now on. I don't thinl we've seen a single month go by without SOMETHING going seriously wrong, have we? Or at least long enough to cause a multi-week delay. Given the experience with OP to date, it's fairly easy to predict that SOMETHING will go wrong. Even if it's not easy to predict what, exactly, will go wrong. If I had been laying bets each month since original preorder that "something will go wrong, it won't be delivered within 2 months" then I would today be sitting on a pile of cash gazing down on the rest of the community. We are creatures of habit, and it's easy to fall into habitual behaviour and keep doing the same thing because one hasn't been proven wrong yet (note - the banks did this too, although in the end they were finally proven wrong).
Specifically what could go wrong? Well there's lots of room to imagine problems with the case/mould and/or the plastics company, problems with the Pandora failing CE or FCC testing, problems with the Pandora actually leagally needing FCC testing after all, as it turns out, or problems with OpenPandora getting into trouble because they didn't FCC test the unit and the US officials take umbrage to this.
But the point isn't EXACTLY what will go wrong and cause delays, the point is that users are forecasting "unspecified issues will cause delays" because, for the last 3/4 of a year, they always have done. We've been trained by experience, like Pavlov's dogs, to extend any forecast in order to minimise dissapointment