COVID-19 / Coronavirus Pandemic

[netcat]

 

[JDTAY]

Suddenly, I am hungry for brains. Did I just become a zombie?

 

[levi]

That or...

 

[netcat]

you don't strike me as a crackhead. a multifaceted character you are.

 

[matzesu]

The Ministers of the German federall states (like Bayovarian (where the Oktoberfest is), Baden Würtemberg (Mercedes) Saarland (my State)) wants to make a meeting on wednesday to speek about what to make now.. i really hope they put some easear rules like that you can have a Hair Cut whitout 2G + if you got also the Booster (will i get on Saturday)..

Or whe gets the War Law because the Russians are standing on the City Sign of Berlin ^^,

 

[ElPoco]

Look at deaths. Vaccinations do help out to varying degrees but very low vaccinations and your fucked like Bulgaria. Maybe because you need to get your elderly vaccinated then after them it doesn't really matter. Hence the high dispersion in the lower right.

Look at excess deaths. Negative for several countries. That means that we are over reacting.

Look at hospitalisations. Despite being highly vaccinated a lot of French are ending up in the hospital. No clue why this could be

I find it pointless to try to interpret that data without additional data or knowledge:
- Hospitalisations don't show how many people require it, it shows how many people get in the hospital. If access to a hospital is more difficult or less common in a country (because hospitals are few and far between, because they are expensive, because they've got bad reputation, because people are hospitalised at home, etc.) or if there are just less hospital bed available, you'll have less people in the hospital.
- Excess death could be negative because people who would have died today died during the earlier COVID waves, or because the measures to fight COVID led to fewer car rides or because they were effective against the flu...

And that's just at the top of my head. Analysing data is more complex than many people realise.

 

[JDTAY]

My throat is just a little scratchy, and now I’m afraid I might have omicron. My sister and dad did come over for the Super Bowl yesterday. My dad already had omicron and cleared it, but my sister never tested positive even when the other six people she lived with did, meaning she could’ve picked it up more recently, then passed it to me last night.

 

[JDTAY]

USA Today says fentanyl killed more people in my age group the past two years than COVID-19 did. What I’m wondering is, where’s my fentanyl vaccine? A very low dose should trigger some immunity, I believe.

 

[levi]

Fentanyl is an opioid not a virus or bacteria. You can't have a vaccine in the conventional sense, but you can learn not to inject yourself with opioids.

 

[netcat]

I find it pointless to try to interpret that data without additional data or knowledge:
- Hospitalisations don't show how many people require it, it shows how many people get in the hospital. If access to a hospital is more difficult or less common in a country (because hospitals are few and far between, because they are expensive, because they've got bad reputation, because people are hospitalised at home, etc.) or if there are just less hospital bed available, you'll have less people in the hospital.
- Excess death could be negative because people who would have died today died during the earlier COVID waves, or because the measures to fight COVID led to fewer car rides or because they were effective against the flu...

And that's just at the top of my head. Analysing data is more complex than many people realise.

Thank you El Poco for replying to my posting of charts. Normally I get no responses. Maybe it's the wrong forum but I like this forum.

I only post things I find remarkable and thought provoking. Rehashing old ideas doesn't add much. So I expect controversy.

But you are confusing my intention. I am not providing facts* as most media outlets portend to do. These are alternate angles, food for thought and of course hypotheses. We are all on an evolving search for the best hypothesis.

I disagree with your statement about needing more data. I try to find the most basic relationships in lowest common denominator data that probably hold true and therefor have value. I don't trust the data for many reasons, but if a datapoint differs by a wide enough margin between two similar countries we might be on to something.

All your points against my hospitalisation analysis disappear when comparing similar countries. Cancel variables and simplify the equation.

And for the excess deaths, are saying your hypothesis is more likely than mine? This is what I expect but it seems as though you are merely trying to discredit me. Actually your statement about reduced car rides supports my hypothesis (excessive restrictions).

One flaw though is I didn't plot the origin so magnitudes on both axes are obscured. You can't tell if the differences in datapoints are relatively small or not.

 

[HelenF]

Scales would be good! And I'm not sure what most of those numbers are exactly. To start with, what does total_vaccinations_per_hundred mean? Number of people with 1+ dose? 2+ doses? 3 doses? Number of doses given out regardless of who got them?

 

[netcat]

total_vaccinations_per_hundred is people with 1 or more vaccinations. I have figures for 2 doses and boosters which are similar curves just time lagged. I chose single doses because it skews things in favour of vaccinations and I'm trying to be pessimistic, reduce bias and produce stronger relationships.

I purposely remove numbers and axes markers because this is inherently fuzzy. I assume that even the most accurate figures could be off by 20%, hopefully not more, otherwise I throw in the towel.

So my observations about Bulgaria should be taken with a grain of salt. But all those countries with negative excess deaths are worth pondering.

Are you Helen Flannery?

 

[JDTAY]

Well, this is interesting. The CDC now lists BA.1.1 as its own thing in the variant estimates. Apparently it makes up three times as many cases as original Omicron in the US and keeps gaining. Meanwhile, BA.2 is still not making much headway into the US at 3.9%.

 

[HelenF]

Nope, not Helen Flannery.

There are too many confounding factors here. For example, the UK has a high rate of vaccination but is doing pretty much nothing else. How do you compare that with a country with a lower rate of vaccination but other sorts of countermeasures instead? "Proportion of cases requiring hospitalisation" would be useful, except that the total number of cases reported is super dependent on the testing strategy in place.

 

[levi]

Well, the government is mandating nothing, that's not to say that nobody is doing anything. I for example have not been on a bus or a train for about two years now. I am doing lateral flow tests before I go anywhere, and so far thankfully they've all returned a negative (and I've not had any recognised covid symptoms).

 

[HelenF]

Well that's true, I'm being careful too, but I got the impression that a lot of people aren't doing anything.

 

[wdt]

> I got the impression that a lot of people aren't doing anything.
If nothing else, you could take vitamin D, 2-3 (1000IU) or ideally 4-5
For 9 months of the year, unnecessary in summer if you get a tan
Greatly reduces chance of death
Sometimes amazon still has 'horse paste'
(if taken early, very effective)

 

[netcat]

"Proportion of cases requiring hospitalisation" would be useful, except that the total number of cases reported is super dependent on the testing strategy in place.

I see no value in that. We all know cases are a function of testing which is why I (and others) started looking at hospitalisations. I'm sceptical of the hospitalisations though because of the high dispersion. I'll try smoothing the curve before selecting the last datapoint, see what that looks like. Could well discard these charts. Unfortunately can't now because I'm on holiday.

Another question I have is why are South Korean covid deaths relatively low but excess deaths high? I know Korea quite well and they are very proud of their health system so suspect fudging data. Excess deaths harder to fudge innit.

I for example have not been on a bus or a train for about two years now. I am doing lateral flow tests before I go anywhere, and so far thankfully they've all returned a negative

Aren't you healthy?

My sister is too scared to get a jab and too scared to go outside. This is a terrible kind of covid victim. Completely unnecessary suffering.

If you are young and healthy covid fear is irrational. Yes - take precautions if you work in the emergency room, but I can't recommend limiting you're activities for extended periods of time. You only live once.

That said, the BBC is a propaganda canon controlling people through fear so I can't fault you entirely.

I got the impression that a lot of people aren't doing anything

I take the required minimum measures and try not to grumble, but no more. Why would you? Ah yes, fear (rational or not).

I want to try to concoct a fear index. Could be used to guage the efficacy of official FUD, ie power of state propaganda. For instance use uptake on vaccines for young children which they openly state will only benefit a tiny fraction of children. As such vaccinating a healthy child is irrational. Remember: vaccines are drugs and drugs should be avoided unless necessary.

 

[FBnil]

My sister is too scared to get a jab and too scared to go outside.

https://holamurphy.com/most-accidents-in-the-united-states-occur-in-the-home/

of course, "most" is a relative term, it's actually half: Out of all these deaths, over half (53.4%) of them took place in homes. This makes domestic accidents the most frequent type of accidents in the United States. Among the various types of mishaps occurring at home, poisoning is the number one cause of accidents, and even death.

So a likely scenario would be: "Why did you poison me, brother? Argh!...."
Now, standing outside on the porch or nearby the house is also a no-no:

Why Most Accidents Happen Within 5 Minutes of Your Home | Atlanta, GA

This article discusses a disturbing trend where car accidents frequently happen at close distance from homes. Contact us for legal help today.

atltriallaw.com

Now prevention is best:

The Most Common Home Accidents And How To Prevent Them - EK Insurance

THE MOST COMMON HOME ACCIDENTS (AND HOW TO PREVENT THEM) Learn about The Most Common Home Accidents (And How To Prevent Them) to help you protect your family from common household dangers. Taking precautionary measures can help you prevent injuries, property damage, and can even save lives...

ekinsurance.com

from the article:

Trips and Falls - don't take a trip during fall.
Burns - don't troll on forums, or you might get burned
Sharp Objects - don't program in C sharp, everything is an object, or so I've heard
Glass Injuries - Google glass is already discontinued, fortunately.
Bruises - Don't fight with your sibling
Dangerous Furniture
Falling Objects
Poisoning
Choking
Drowning

 

[matzesu]

Made a "Quest for the Holly Vacination Book" yesterday, but ditnt found anything, so seems like i need a new one from my MD
But the Vaccination Event i will went tomorrow had written that its not neccessarry to bring a Vaccination Book , only Mask, ID Card, etc..

Lets hope this works out tommorow, and its ditnt got chancelet because of Storm..