COVID-19 / Coronavirus Pandemic


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Israel decided to start making vaccinated people wear masks again after a bunch of vaccinated adults there got Delta. It's just a precautionary measure though, they're still investigating exactly what happened.
 
Requires a subscription to read. I was able to pull this out of the end of the text by denying CSS, in case it helps
The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or Vaers, which is administered by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration, is a database that allows Americans to document adverse events that happen after receiving a vaccine. The FDA and CDC state that the database isn’t designed to determine whether the events were caused by a vaccine. This is true. But the data can nonetheless be evaluated, accounting for its strengths and weaknesses, and that is what the CDC and FDA say they do.

The Vaers data for Covid-19 vaccines show an interesting pattern. Among the 310 million Covid-19 vaccines given, several adverse events are reported at high rates in the days immediately after vaccination, and then fall precipitously afterward. Some of these adverse events might have occurred anyway. The pattern may be partly attributable to the tendency to report more events that happen soon after vaccination.
 
Guys, North Carolina's COVID-19 dashboard is freaking me out again. The County Alert System was updated, and shows Bladen County as red. It only goes up to June 19th though. In the past week, there's a county that's had as many cases as Bladen County, but with a third of the population, for three times the spread. It's called Clay County, and it's out all the way at the western tip of North Carolina. Why would Clay County worry me? My dad was in Murphy in Cherokee County yesterday for his paralegal job. Cherokee County literally is North Carolina's western tip, meaning he could've stopped in Clay County on the way there or back. I'm freaking out waiting for him to wake up this morning now so I can ask him if he stopped in Clay County at all.

Here, freak yourselves out too:
 
Again, the UK seems to be exceptional:

1624704194176.png

I am most fearful of impending restrictions.
 
I heard the Doctor orchestrated the Brexit to try to protect the world from the UK, but alas, she was too late. She should've known she couldn't change a fixed point in history.
 
Again, the UK seems to be exceptional:

View attachment 37291
I am most fearful of impending restrictions.
What on earth is that X axis meant to be? Days? From when and until when? And the colour of the lines seem to switch between the graphs, which isn't ideal when they're presented side by side like this. But yes this past month or so our cases have been going up more or less exponentially. Which is explaned by the R number being well north of 1 in all parts of the UK:

The only thing I'd like to know right now is how does your vaccination status affect the likelihood of getting infected and passing it on (aka the R number for vaccinations), since I've had by second dose of vaccine this week.
 

 
Darn, first Israel recommends vaccinated people mask back up because of Delta, now apparently the WHO is recommending it too.


Edit: Here's the original source:
 
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What on earth is that X axis meant to be? Days? From when and until when?
Yes it's 30 back days smoothed to a 14 day moving average. Sorry about the lack of labels and inconsistent colors.

But it's quite clear that case numbers should be taken with a grain of salt or ignored. As previously discussed cases are a function of many things and as such are prone to error and manipulation.

Pure propaganda.
Fake science.
 
Source: https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/693/pdf

Abstract: Background: COVID-19 vaccines have had expedited reviews without sufficient safety data. We wanted to compare risks and benefits.
Method: We calculated the number needed to vaccinate (NNTV) from a large Israeli field study to prevent one death. We accessed the Adverse Drug Reactions (ADR) database of the European Medicines Agency and of the Dutch National Register (lareb.nl) to extract the number of cases reporting severe side effects and the number of cases with fatal side effects. Result: The NNTV is between 200–700 to prevent one case of COVID-19 for the mRNA vaccine marketed by Pfizer, while the NNTV to prevent one death is between 9000 and 50,000
(95% confidence interval), with 16,000 as a point estimate. The number of cases experiencing adverse reactions has been reported to be 700 per 100,000 vaccinations. Currently, we see 16 serious side effects per 100,000 vaccinations, and the number of fatal side effects is at 4.11/100,000 vaccinations.
For three deaths prevented by vaccination we have to accept two inflicted by vaccination.
Conclusions: This lack of clear benefit should cause governments to rethink their vaccination policy.

ICSR = individual case safety reports (cases with side-effects of vaccine)
vaccines.jpg
 
So, let's say you are at the helm of a train, and on the track are 100 people with COVID-19, but on the other track, there are 200 people getting vaccinated for COVID-19. What do you do?
 
So, let's say you are at the helm of a train, and on the track are 100 people with COVID-19, but on the other track, there are 200 people getting vaccinated for COVID-19. What do you do?
First let me state it's the governments task to prevent covid related illnesses in their community and using a vaccine is an obvious choice.
This paper appears to have concluded they might want to check their approach, personally I don't have an opinion regarding this as I'm not an expert in this field and I'm just posting the findings of this paper.

Your remark also makes it sound like there would only be these two options; in that case you probably would try to save the most lives.
But that choice actually isn't obvious, is it 100 sick kids following the track to go to a hospital and 200 vaccinated people that volunteered to be on the track because they want to get hit by a train?

Who dies of covid: mostly older people
Who dies from a vaccine: also mostly older people, but also some young people
So I can imagine the choice is a tiny bit more nuanced than just sick / vaccinated.

Numbers of deaths from covid-19 related to age according to CDC:
vaccines_stats.PNG
Number of deaths reported in the Netherlands due to covid vaccine:
Source: https://www.lareb.nl/media/aluowkda/signals_2021_cases_fatal_outcomes_covid_vaccine.pdf
vaccines_stats2.png
 
So, let's say you are at the helm of a train, and on the track are 100 people with COVID-19, but on the other track, there are 200 people getting vaccinated for COVID-19. What do you do?
Honk and brake ? If you can change the rail intersection yourself you probably can stop, unboard the train, operate the rail crossing and get back up, so just don't start again while there's people on the rail.

But these are the Pyra forums, so we can't forget the obvious choice:

Derail

If you can't brake but can operate the diversion from the helm, then maybe operate it halfway and derail ? How many people are on the train ?
 
Who dies of covid: mostly older people
Who dies from a vaccine: also mostly older people, but also some young people
So I can imagine the choice is a tiny bit more nuanced than just sick / vaccinated.
They always study by age and gender, and I know that's relatively easy and makes sense, but I think there're more variables to take into account, like place of residence (dense city or country house), occupation, travel habits, etc.
I don't know enough to assess the study you posted either. My problem is that the deaths / severe side effects from vaccines can more or less be counted (hardly, depending on data quality, and at some point you get too small control group of unvaccinated people. In may first read of the study I don't see the comparison of the side efects with the unvaccinated group, might already be done in their sources).
But the deaths /severe effects of COVID-19 depend on what restrictions are imposed (and heeded) so as you lift restrictions the community transmission of COVID-19 should raise, and the cost/benefit of vaccination should be more in favor of vaccinating.
Another data we don't know is how long vaccine protection lasts, and how more dangerous or not are vaccines if they are taken every year. The AZ and Jansen vaccines seemed to be more dangerous at first dose, if they don't give you clots then they shouldn't give you in second doses. But the peri/miocarditis from mRNA vaccines seemed more frequent after second dose, so what about yearly reminders ? Vaccination is a risk on the day you vaccinate, but natural infection is a threat every single day, and then how likely is it to cause severe symptoms or death in what timeframe ?
Also there seems to be possible to have long term natural immunity when infected (without vaccine) but it won't be sure until more time passes.
Buf. Difficult.
 
Hey guys, God has a sense of humor, and it's mostly schadenfreude. Turns out, avoiding COVID-19 for the past year and a half has now made us more susceptible to literally every other infectious disease in existence.

 
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