War in Ukraine

[TeDaDeS]

That is why we must stop telling people to hoard food and prepare.
If we buy stuff like usual, or even a bit less, there would be enough (at least in the western evolved world).

While I agree I can also imagine the person in Ukraine that was telling people to stock-up and prepare because there was a Russian troops build-up at their border would hear the same thing.
Most people in Ukraine probably also don't have issues getting their food right now, some do. If a small minority feels the need to prepare I feel they should be able to do so when stuff is still available in abundance.

While it will probably/hopefully not happen, I can't see into the future. What if things do go bad?
If main stream media reports there will be food shortages in the future, doesn't it sound wise to prepare? What should we tell the majority of the people in a few months if they are watching to empty store shelves?
That they could have prepared as it was widely reported in the news and they could have known? And what if you did prepare and share with your community, wouldn't that be good?

Probably the food industry is hoarding food in bulk right now, which will be a disadvantage for non-western countries that really depend on it.
And usually you'll see people hoarding when it's to late, then the stores can't be resupplied and shelves stay empty for a while.
I think everyone agrees it's not nice to have empty stores and we should give everyone the opportunity to get food.

 

[pyrat]

What do you make of the news today ? Up until now combat was only in Ukraine (or Donetsk and Luhansk for those happening to consider them republics). I think it didn't even happened in Crimea this year ?
- Russia says last night two Ukranian helicopters entered Russia and bombed an oil depot in Belgorod (few dozen kms away from border, north of Kharkiv, east of Sumy, the Ukranian side of that border being occupied by Russia, but with Ukranian counteroffensives apparently in a line between Kharkiv and Sumy up to the border)
- Ukraine first says it cannot confirm or deny it was Ukraine
- then Russia says the depot was for civilian use, not military (is that really so clearcut in a a war?).
- then Ukraine says it wasn't Ukraine.
- Ukraine just demoted two Ukranian generals accusing them of treason. Kind of too soon to be related, I guess. The news I find are 2 or 3 hours earlier than the news from the Russian oil depot bombed.Aljazeera quotes some Ukranian media saying “These high-ranking servicemen, who could not decide on where their homeland is, who violate the military oath of allegiance to the Ukrainian people regarding the protection of our state, its freedom, independence, will certainly be deprived of their high military rank,” the president was quoted as saying.

As far as I know there weren't any casualties but two people hurt.

So was it Ukraine and it is now just trying to avoid accusations of war crimes if it was a civilian facility ? I've read the brag factor could be big, because it was a very dangerous low flight by night to minimize detection and antiaircraft risk but with much risk to crash into unseen ground obstacles. So difficult and valiant and so on. So it's supposed to raise Ukranian moral. Do they really care so much for legal consequences in a war ? If a country invades and bombs you, can't you just bomb its land ?

Or was it really not Ukraine ? It doesn't make sense to be by NATO. A false flag attack by the Russians themselves seems strange, what would they get from it ?

Can some undisciplined/rebel units from either Russia or Ukraine have done some such without orders from above ? Flying two helicopters is no solo spontaneus move.
Wanted a part of the Ukranian army to cut the back of the Russian troops by invading some km of Russia next to the border, but the government didn't approve ?

Russia said the bombing in Russia didn't help the appropriate climate for peace talks (so what about all those bombings in Ukraine then ?).

 

[levi]

Who can say. The news yet is highly ambiguous.

As far as I know there weren't any casualties but two people hurt.

I assume you mean there were no deaths, because hurt people are casualties.

Perhaps because of the restrictions russia put on those buying gas from russia, they anticipate they won't need to process quite as much of the stuff, so created a false flag event by blowing it up?

 

[pyrat]

I assume you mean there were no deaths, because hurt people are casualties.

Yes, sorry.

Perhaps because of the restrictions russia put on those buying gas from russia, they anticipate they won't need to process quite as much of the stuff, so created a false flag event by blowing it up?

Even if they had too much oil, what do they want the false flag for ? an excuse to invade Ukraine ? They have already invaded Ukraine. An excuse to call the "special military operation" an invasion because they got tired of their own euphemism ?
An excuse to surrender and retreat ("wow, they're bombing us, let's panic")? Makes no sense.
An excuse to throw biological or chemical weapons or nukes or any mass destruction stuff? I don't really see the connection, it'd be easier if they would set the red flag in Ukraine...
In another news the Kremlin said they were reinforcing their troops in their western borders. But "Ukranians bombed Bolgorod, let's take Lithuania" is too crazy even for Putin, isn't it ? They could have made a red flag blaming NATO instead.
In fact they have already blamed NATO. They say since NATO is sending troops near the borders, Russia has to balance by doing the same.
I thought it might be an April's fool joke, but it isn't funny. And I've seen it in more than one media. In fact in Reuters there's another confusing bit:

Hours after the blaze began at the oil depot, an eyewitness reached by telephone in Belgorod, who asked not to be identified, said aircraft were flying overhead and there were continuous explosions from the direction of the border.

"Something is happening. There are planes and constant explosions in the distance."

Doesn't clarify much at all. Could be anything from a bigger Ukranian air strike to Russian defense or even a battle inside Ukraine (Belgorod is 35km from Ukraine).

 

[TeDaDeS]

Even if they had too much oil, what do they want the false flag for ? an excuse to invade Ukraine ? They have already invaded Ukraine. An excuse to call the "special military operation" an invasion because they got tired of their own euphemism ?
An excuse to surrender and retreat ("wow, they're bombing us, let's panic")? Makes no sense.
An excuse to throw biological or chemical weapons or nukes or any mass destruction stuff? I don't really see the connection, it'd be easier if they would set the red flag in Ukraine...
In another news the Kremlin said they were reinforcing their troops in their western borders. But "Ukranians bombed Bolgorod, let's take Lithuania" is too crazy even for Putin, isn't it ? They could have made a red flag blaming NATO instead.
In fact they have already blamed NATO. They say since NATO is sending troops near the borders, Russia has to balance by doing the same.
I thought it might be an April's fool joke, but it isn't funny. And I've seen it in more than one media. In fact in Reuters there's another confusing bit:

I could think of a scenario: If war wasn't going that well they could have some impact in the Donbas region and some border cities by staging attacks, blame Ukraine, and have the news push it so hard people support continuing the war for a while.
Doesn't mean this is true obviously, these days it's pretty hard to get accurate information.

 

[levi]

Even if they had too much oil, what do they want the false flag for ?

Perhaps they are intending to prove that ukrainians are attacking russia, according to them. But it's not clear yet what happened, and there's no sign of it clearing up any time soon either.

 

[pyrat]

Well, just so that not all news are bad. It seems they agreed a TWO MONTHS truce in the Yemen war, including oil export. It starts with Ramadan so now. I guess the oil export is what brings it on topic. Now just register all of them in this forum so that they learn how long two months last.

 

[Confuzzled]

Re: Belgorod

Given that Russia has claimed repeatedly that the Ukrainians are bombing themselves, it is simply reflecting the Russian position to say that this is obviously the Russians bombing themselves. Whether the truth of the situation will ever be revealed is unknown. Given the Russian mastery of maskirovka it will take a while to sort out, and meanwhile gives Russians a plausible reason for being upset.

Given what we know of Russian power politics, it is entirely possible that the facility was sabotaged by Russians. Such alleged subterfuge is claimed to have been used at the beginning of the second Chechen War with apartment block bombings. Unfortunately, it is not unconscionable.

As targets go, attacking an oil storage facility to degrade an enemy's logistics is not illogical. It makes more sense, militarily, than attacking theatres or apartment blocks.

 

[pyrat]

Re: Belgorod

Given that Russia has claimed repeatedly that the Ukrainians are bombing themselves, it is simply reflecting the Russian position to say that this is obviously the Russians bombing themselves.

Yes, but I didn't want to reflect the Russian position. I just wanted to make my own mind about it.

Whether the truth of the situation will ever be revealed is unknown. Given the Russian mastery of maskirovka it will take a while to sort out, and meanwhile gives Russians a plausible reason for being upset.

As if they needed it... They do what Putin pleases with or without reason.
Well, yes, my main takeaway may be that maybe I should be contented with knowing I'll never know. Ukranians should master maskirovka as good as Russians, shouldn't they ? It was "invented" while (part, then all) of Ukraine was in the same state as Russia, if I understand it right.

As targets go, attacking an oil storage facility to degrade an enemy's logistics is not illogical. It makes more sense, militarily, than attacking theatres or apartment blocks.

But that cuts both ways, is both a reason to think Russia staged (to make it credible) or that Ukraine did it (to hinder Russian logistics).
My doubt is not so much whether Ukraine did it, but if they did why should they deny it? Claiming it could have propaganda benefits (David hurting Goliath) but might give trouble in some international legal proceedings ? I'm not sure it would be so serious if Ukraine did it in the current context (of course it would be serious in peacetime).

 

[JDTAY]

I’m glad Russia is having a hard time in Ukraine, because I don’t want to see what happens if they invade a NATO nation.

Somehow I feel like this might be like American football though, where the team acts like they’re going to run a play when they’re really just trying to draw the other team offside.

 

[FBnil]

New month, new hot newstopic! This month I present to you: Civil war in Sri Lanka... Putin, your season is over.

 

[FBnil]

Nostalgic - Latest News

2,560 points • 332 comments

9gag.com

Remember this hit about Ukrainian girls nocking them out?

 

[levi]

New month, new hot newstopic! This month I present to you: Civil war in Sri Lanka... Putin, your season is over.

Nah, that's just the same old same old. Remember the tamil tigers? That was civil war. This appears, now I look it up to just be a protest against a curfew gone badly. We've seen similar scenes in Belgium and the Netherlands. Places that are actually having a civil war include Ethiopia and the US

 

[TeDaDeS]

Sometimes a cat can cheer you up:

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

 

[FBnil]

Sometimes a cat can cheer you up:

- YouTube

Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.

www.youtube.com

Explosions made cat deaf?

 

[netcat]

NO!

 

[Null]

 

[pyrat]

And I'm puzzled by the EU forbidding agencies from rating Russian debt and Russian entities. Rating is a requiremnt for credit, but if there's fear of default ratings would be low, so it is really better to have no rating than a bad rating or .... ?

@netcat said no rating is worse than a bad rating, but turns out it didn't matter. S&P is giving bad rating (selective default) today and then complying with the EU ban and removing the rating on friday, April 15th.
When I say it didn't matter, I mean that there's no point in wondering whether no rating is worse than bad rating if Russia gets both bad rating and then no rating. I don't mean it is irrelevant the rating or lack of rating that Russia has.

 

[FBnil]

Russian coin back to what it was (even a little higher). Look at the year graph (click on "1J" / 1 Jaar)

Koers Russische roebel (RUB) - Actuele wisselkoers Russische roebel

Russische roebelkoers realtime – Overzicht van de actuele valutakoers van de Russische roebel ten opzichte van andere valuta wisselkoersen. Daarnaast kunt u de Russische roebel omrekenen in meer dan 130 valutas & vindt u historische wisselkoers informatie en het valuta profiel van de Russische...

www.lynx.nl

Economist said it's because Russian gas is payed in gold or RUB and Europe is buying.
But then zoom in on today: https://www.wisselkoers.nl/russische_roebel
It went down faster than bitcoin did.

 

[TeDaDeS]

Russian coin back to what it was (even a little higher). Look at the year graph (click on "1J" / 1 Jaar)

Koers Russische roebel (RUB) - Actuele wisselkoers Russische roebel

Russische roebelkoers realtime – Overzicht van de actuele valutakoers van de Russische roebel ten opzichte van andere valuta wisselkoersen. Daarnaast kunt u de Russische roebel omrekenen in meer dan 130 valutas & vindt u historische wisselkoers informatie en het valuta profiel van de Russische...

www.lynx.nl

Economist said it's because Russian gas is payed in gold or RUB and Europe is buying.
But then zoom in on today: https://www.wisselkoers.nl/russische_roebel
It went down faster than bitcoin did.

How I understood this was a possible scenario: I think Russia was expecting the Ruble do drop in price and tying it to gold creates a minimum value.