Shipping Date: Guessing Game

[jpenguin]

I'll say they start to ship after 12-25-08, but before 1-10-09; I also figure it will be somewhat like the MITS Altair (the first model to ship will get lost in the mail)

 

[fischju2000]

January 2nd

 

[TrevorBradley]

Good try, but no. It's actually the Emperor's nose problem, since we don't have access to the pig in question.

Interesting... I know and understand what you're saying, but I wasn't aware of the name of the fallacy.

(I make math games and have already made one for the GP2X, I may have to include this concept in a future multiplayer game idea)

I don't think we're that much in the dark. We do have some information from the developer, and many of us have worked on engineering projects (hardware of software) before and have a better time reading between the lines of "Our estimated delivery date is X, and we're presently at stage of production Y with problems Z1, Z2, and Z3" from a contractor or other engineering group. It's never a precise science, but it's far from guessing without data.

I actually think a more interesting question is "when will the (median) 1900th Pandora be produced?"

 

[TaG]

January fourth, 2009. mark my words. (thats for you, TaG)


You get post on a Sunday? Actually, I'm going for Jan third, 2009. I'm sure they'll send the first one December 31st to say it went out 2008.

For those of you who think this is a dumb exercise, it is, but what's going on here is a "wisdom of the commons" effect. If you take a country fair and ask people to guess the weight of a pig, the guesses will vary wildly, but the median will actually be pretty close to the pig's weight.
Let's hope the devs don't think this thread is a poll and use it to decide the date.

 

[joa]

17th January 2009.

This give them about 2 weeks to pull things together after christmas, then a few days shipping after new years day. This is optimistic. I'm reckon earlier Feb is more accurate.

 

[hch]

For those of you who think this is a dumb exercise, it is, but what's going on here is a "wisdom of the commons" effect. If you take a country fair and ask people to guess the weight of a pig, the guesses will vary wildly, but the median will actually be pretty close to the pig's weight.

Good try, but no. It's actually the Emperor's nose problem, since we don't have access to the pig in question.
I think it goes something like this:
The Emperor is never seen by any citizens. They don't know what he looks like at all. If you ask every citizen in the country how long the Emperor's nose it, you'll probably end up with what is about the median or average length of a normal nose.
Unfortunately, the Emperor might not even have a nose! Or it might be 15 inches long! Or maybe it's just a little too short or a little too long. The point is, without seeing the Emperor, it's impossible to guess.

I'm gonna say January 3rd, 2009. For a certain reason. I don't actually know anything.

assuming the emperor is just an average person, the resulting guess will not be that bad. so i actually think the pigs weight guessing is a quite good analogy. after all, you don't get to lift the pig either, just look at it (it might be full of air or lead, who knows by the looks ) so it's the wrong kind of measurement.

well, here's my best guess for the first non-hacker complete customer pandora: Feb. 23rd 2009

 

[Chero]

the first : jan 12 2009
mine : jan 31 2009

 

[Yigguth]

October 17th 2011

 

[mali]

March 12 3256
Muhahahaha..

 

[mazza558]

Jan 5th 2009.

 

[aaron11193]

I'll take a wild stab in the dark and say January the 11th, 2009 at about 1554 hours.

 

[mechanizeddeath]

February 7th, 1979.


Edit: I mean 2-7-09.

My 30th birthday.

 

[sterling976]

1230645600

 

[giovanni]

February 1st 2009

 

[Patrick R Ludvigsen]

February 1st 2009

My birthday!

...but I won't get it in time then

 

[efegea]

February 29 2009 :lol:

 

[DrCJBoduma]

Just to up the sadness ante - Here is a list of the (sane) guesses so far.

18th December - AireTamStorm
19th December - atomicthumbs
20th December - Madison Skull
23rd December - Patrick R Ludvigsen + devhace
25th December - .Gogeta§§J4BR.
27th December - kattle87
28th December - Defo
29th December - javaJake
30th December - greendots

1st January - adamorjames
2nd January - fischju2000
3rd January - jbr + TaG
4th January - PoisonedV + cb88(?)
5th January - mazza558
6th January - MDave (?)
7th January - DrCJBoduma + hells_dark
10th January - magicman5421 + mcqfesijiba2
11th January - aaron11193
12th January - Kloplop321 + Chero
13th January - fiveseven
14th January - GunPei2X
15th January - mali
17th January - joa
19th January - joseluisjazz
21st January - GaleFenrir
22nd January - Klepto
26th January - OrR

1st February - giovanni
3rd February - naples39
7th February - mechanizeddeath
13th February - Zor Prime
14th February - fahrstuhl
23rd February - hch
27th February - White Demon

1st March - Sphinxter

Remember closest one wins :rolleyes:

 

[sterling976]

Just to up the sadness ante - Here is a list of the (sane) guesses so far.

You're missing one.

 

[Phawx]

I have a good game. How much time does OpenPandora LTD have before competing products are announced?

Ubuntu 9.04 will have ARM support. So that's April. Maybe some other company will annouce a new gadget with maybe not so many bells and whistles, but a bigger name and a cheaper product to push.

Truly the Pandora will be an awesome device. But there have been quite a few bumpy roads and only 3800 tech-nuts came running to the device. What the Pandora needs to survive is to get onto market first, be awesome and chew bubblegum. But, be all out of bubblegum.

Hopefully by Dec 14th we can see a fully completed Pandora being gamed on.

 

[fiveseven]

I'll take 13th January, seeing as no-one else has.