Question On Estimated Ship Date

[stustaff]

So based on the pandora.org page can we now work out an ESTIMATED ship date Ive had a go see below.

To-Do:

* Get the final Prototype case - DONE
* Build a test device and check if everything is okay
* Create the keymat mould (takes 20 - 25 days)
* Design the final keyboard layout (needs to be finished when the mould is ready) - DONE
* Create mould of final case (can be done once the case fits, takes 30 - 35 days)
* CE / FCC testing (can be done once the prototype case is here)
* Mass Production testrun for the final boards
* Stability testing (this will be fun)
* Wait for the last remaining pieces for mass production (LATEST deadline is second week of March)
* Mass Production
* Test the boards
* SHIP THEM!

So taking into account that some can be done at the same time as others I reckon we are looking at

Start Today - Build a test device an test it Im going to imagine allow a week for that - 4th May
-----------------------------1st bunch stuff complete 4th May----------------------------------------------------------------
Start 4th May - Keymat mould can then be created 25 days - 8th June
Create mold of final case 35 days - 22nd June
CE/FCC testing
------------------------------2nd bunch stuff complete 22nd June------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mass production test runn 10days(Guess) - 6th July
Stability testing 5 days(Guess) 29th June
-------------------------------3rd bunch stuff complete 6th july-------------------------------------------------
Mass Production (1st boards ten days after run starts GUESS) 20th July
------------------------------4th Bunch of stuff complete 20th July---------------------------------------------
Test boards 10 Days (Guess) 3rd August
-------------------------------5th Bunch of stuff complete 3rd August-----------------------------------------
Ship them 5 days(Location dependant) - 10th August
-------------------------------First units in hand 17th August------------------------------------------------


Does that sound about right?

 

[Kramy]

I do believe some of that goes in parallel, so it should be June/July.

 

[bzar]

I'm still expecting first units to be delivered may/june. Many of those things can be done in parallel.

 

[chiark]

Some could go in parallel - the challenge is identifying the critical path...

I would also guess that there will be rework resulting from the tests: rework may have been included in the estimates above (eg 10 days for test runs) but I would imagine there could be significantly more given the way things have gone in the past.

Someone somewhere must have a master plan, and it would be interesting to see it

 

[stustaff]

Ive put things that can be done in parrallel together and then used the longest completion date as the start point for the next batch of things that can be done in parralel.
As far as im aware none of the things i havent already got running together can be done in parralel can they?

 

[gruso]

The keymat mould was already ordered. Last we heard, the factory was asking some questions (read: making things difficult) before proceeding. That was a couple of weeks ago now.

 

[stustaff]

The keymat mould was already ordered. Last we heard, the factory was asking some questions (read: making things difficult) before proceeding. That was a couple of weeks ago now.

Ah cool but I had keymat down as parralel to the final case mould anyway so that wont affect this timeline unless it takes longer than 22nd June.

 

[Awakening]

* Create mould of final case (can be done once the case fits, takes 30 - 35 days)

Can't remember, was the final mould for the case started on or are they waiting for MW to test the transparent CNC first? Which I think he mentioned recently he didn't know where it was. Since it takes a month+ this really is the big issue. Everything else should be started on or already done IIRC.

 

[r00tw00t]

You forgot:
* Create vaccin against Swine flu

I'm afraid we will see another delay because of the PANDemic!

 

[joa]

I'm not very optimistic about May/June. They're not rushing the home straight by the sounds of it.

And, Given earlier estimated release dates, I just can't see it happening.

 

[stustaff]

I'm not very optimistic about May/June. They're not rushing the home straight by the sounds of it.

And, Given earlier estimated release dates, I just can't see it happening.

ha ha just noticed, nice choice of quote in your sig

 

[WizardStan]

* Create mould of final case (can be done once the case fits, takes 30 - 35 days)

Can't remember, was the final mould for the case started on or are they waiting for MW to test the transparent CNC first? Which I think he mentioned recently he didn't know where it was. Since it takes a month+ this really is the big issue. Everything else should be started on or already done IIRC.

Craigix did come on and post the single line: "Some parts of the case are already in mass production" or something to that effect. I'm hoping that 30 day mold making time is cut shorter by only having to mold the one part that needed to change, with the rest already in progress.

 

[Fishbong]

The keymat mould was already ordered. Last we heard, the factory was asking some questions (read: making things difficult) before proceeding. That was a couple of weeks ago now.

Wasn't that for the analog controls?

 

[mindlord]

The factory was wanting to move some holes around, which would've meant redesigning a few things. Nothing was said after that. And I don't recall the source, or the thread/site it came from. I believe MWeston said it.

 

[renegadechic]

i don't think we can use that roadmap right now, its really quite out of date. we know that some boards have been ordered and that they have all the parts, there was a situation with the nubs needing new firmware and we dont know if it is done yet, as someone said the keymat situation is somewhere between finalised and the manufacturers issues with it, some of the cases have been being ordered, mweston still doesnt have his clear CNC yet and fatih is away so might not be able to send it to him yet.

things are going on beyond that roadmap and its impossible to tell where in the process things are. i am expecting a monday update from ED or craig later though to fill us in a bit.

 

[Salain]

I think only counting business days is going to give a very conservative estimate, and was probably not their intent.

In my experience, I don't hear people use the business days recommendation past ~10, since time tables in that range could still see a ~20% difference depending on the day of the week an order is placed.

 

[tristan.clark]

i don't think we can use that roadmap right now, its really quite out of date. we know that some boards have been ordered and that they have all the parts, there was a situation with the nubs needing new firmware ...

The nubs have been sorted, the firmware issue was resolved. Unfortunately the company that designed the nubs went bust and hadn't paid the factory, so OP have had to pay for the nubs twice. Sorry I've not looked for the thread. I'm sure it was Craigix that said that though.

 

[(naw)mcx]

i don't think we can use that roadmap right now, its really quite out of date. we know that some boards have been ordered and that they have all the parts, there was a situation with the nubs needing new firmware ...

The nubs have been sorted, the firmware issue was resolved. Unfortunately the company that designed the nubs went bust and hadn't paid the factory, so OP have had to pay for the nubs twice. Sorry I've not looked for the thread. I'm sure it was Craigix that said that though.

Aye, via twitter.

 

[renegadechic]

yeah, i was aware of the payment issue and that they were taking the hit, i just presumed that the company wouldn't fix it until they had been paid, and that if that was the case, how long was it going to take to fix the firmware on 8,000 nubs. figured it might just be another thing that needs finishing

 

[tristan.clark]

i don't think we can use that roadmap right now, its really quite out of date. we know that some boards have been ordered and that they have all the parts, there was a situation with the nubs needing new firmware ...

The nubs have been sorted, the firmware issue was resolved. Unfortunately the company that designed the nubs went bust and hadn't paid the factory, so OP have had to pay for the nubs twice. Sorry I've not looked for the thread. I'm sure it was Craigix that said that though.

Aye, via twitter.


Thanks

yeah, i was aware of the payment issue and that they were taking the hit, i just presumed that the company wouldn't fix it until they had been paid, and that if that was the case, how long was it going to take to fix the firmware on 8,000 nubs. figured it might just be another thing that needs finishing

I believe that the problem had been fixed and that the nubs were being held hostage. I hope that there are no more nasty surprises for OP (or us) :blush: