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Just think of it as watching a point-and-click adventure. You think only thing you need to do is use the butter knife with the box but then comes bowser and kidnaps the princess. In reverse, you think that was to be expected, still an adventure is no fun if you read the whole walkthrough before :D
 
Theres an old trick developers learn; if you work perfectly efficiently, you can produce X in N time. Naturally you get bullshit in the way, commjunicating or meetings or getting beat over by contracts and so on.. so call it 2N. But in realitry, with peopel changing quirements, and dependancies lieing to you, call it 3N. At best.

Whats probably going on here is that Chinese company does good work, but doens't know about these rules.. they give you N or .5N since they're bad at estimating (and probably taking on much larher projects as well to pay the bills); when the boys get told SomeDate, they actually trust the company will hit near the mark, since thats how it usually works in business. But in this case, an extra fe N to be added on :)

The trick is Craig is being held accountable for things outside of his control; he's told SomeDate, tells everyone, then gets something else. People want to be in on the details, so this is what they get; you're either in the details and told everything, or you're not ... so since we know trhe chinese company isn't great at timelines, either don't ask for them, or if you do, multiplky them by a few orders of magnitude. Don't blame craig :)

jeff
 
That's why Craig needs to do your trick and be happy when it comes in sooner.
As it is, it's nice to be kept in the loop regardless of missing given dates, I just add the contingency to it myself.
 
skeezix said:
Theres an old trick developers learn; if you work perfectly efficiently, you can produce X in N time. Naturally you get bullshit in the way, commjunicating or meetings or getting beat over by contracts and so on.. so call it 2N. But in realitry, with peopel changing quirements, and dependancies lieing to you, call it 3N. At best.

Whats probably going on here is that Chinese company does good work, but doens't know about these rules.. they give you N or .5N since they're bad at estimating (and probably taking on much larher projects as well to pay the bills); when the boys get told SomeDate, they actually trust the company will hit near the mark, since thats how it usually works in business. But in this case, an extra fe N to be added on :)

The trick is Craig is being held accountable for things outside of his control; he's told SomeDate, tells everyone, then gets something else. People want to be in on the details, so this is what they get; you're either in the details and told everything, or you're not ... so since we know trhe chinese company isn't great at timelines, either don't ask for them, or if you do, multiplky them by a few orders of magnitude. Don't blame craig :)

jeff
Click to expand...

A software engineering prof in my university teaches to multiply all estimates with at least pi :p
 
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Even with all the delays (3N) applied, we are looking at late February for shipment at worst, a few weeks at best.

Either way I'll still be happy...

With 2 years wait, I'll be happy...

These guys have done a phenomenal job considering most participants were worldwide and was open for a collaborative effort by the open source gaming community. We're coming down to the wire. Asking for a bit of decorum I don't think is too much.

Keep it up craigx, mweston.
 
Craig may be suffering from the same thing I have, being "over intuitive" and not capable of seeing all the details. This makes you very time optimistic and can really underestimate how long things will take. He probably also have judgmental characteristics making him take quick decisions and thus posting uncertain information without thinking. I know that I'm just like that myself. Only past experience can help with these "problems" but it may be hard to contain yourself when you're exited :)

I'm willing to wait for a Pandora that is perfected rather then thinking how things could have been done better. So, even though I wish I had a Pandora pretty much every day I rather wait.
 
I said about 8 months(?) ago Craig was between a rock and a hard place and offered suggestions as to how he should handle giving us information. It's not an easy place to be in for sure. 8 months ago, OP wasn't at the same point they are now. So really, we are at the home stetch, so a few more delays won't be as bad as they were.

But you have to give Craig some slack. It's a difficult position and while he could be less terse, he isn't. So just be glad you have seen a completed prototype. It will come sooner or later.
 
So 3N means Six Months™ then? Imagine if we all expected "June 2010" as the target date and it actually arrived EARLIER!
 
Thinking about June 2010 puts a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. I mean, I know we will get it by January or February. But I actually put that thought into a reality and got a little sick.

Hopefully February works out.
 
It's still going to get here! I'd rather think of it that way than think it's going to be here by Christmas 2008 no Spring 2009 no Summer 2009 no September 2009 no Christmas 2009. We're on the final stretch, but I think people are still a little optimistic as to how fast things can go. A lot of the numbers we've been cranked out were best case scenarios. We always learn something new after we've been given numbers by a factory. The fine print isn't always given up front. Murphy says we shouldn't expect best case scenario.

Example, at first we thought the mould company could crank out 5000 cases per day. But because of some unforeseen communication problem, that turned out to be with multiple moulds.

EvilDragon said:
They can easily produce 5000 units a day - but not from one mould

So those 5000 a day wouldn't only be Pandora cases, that would be many more other cases (unless we create more than one mould).

I don't know how many PANDORA cases can be made on one day (yep, back at that day I also thought it could be any case which they can create 5000 of per day, but that can't technically work), but it should be fast enough to NOT cause much delay.

After all, they KNOW when moulding starts that afterwards the cases are needed, so they can put that on schedule.
Click to expand...
 
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sverm said:
It's still going to get here! I'd rather think of it that way than think it's going to be here by Christmas 2008 no Spring 2009 no Summer 2009 no September 2009 no Christmas 2009. We're on the final stretch, but I think people are still a little optimistic as to how fast things can go. A lot of the numbers we've been cranked out were best case scenarios. We always learn something new after we've been given numbers by a factory. The fine print isn't always given up front. Murphy says we shouldn't expect best case scenario.

Example, at first we thought the mould company could crank out 5000 cases per day. But because of some unforeseen communication problem, that turned out to be with multiple moulds.
Click to expand...

That is a bit unfair to bring up past experiences with this project.

These final few steps seem to have a firm hold on the facts, as firm as can be expected. While I'm sure at the beginning the grasp on these issues was quite loose and therefore so was the interpretation. These issues are at the core of the delays are. Simply look at what could be the best outcome, what could be the realistic worst outcome, and what could the most unrealistic worst outcome be? I'm falling between best and worst realistic. Which will put it at late February (<--- my best guess). If you expect the worst, I understand the thinking, but keep in mind that you depress the hell out of the people here.

And if you honestly did believe that, why keep the pre-order? -- Think about it, if you really believe that it will take another year or more, then cancel the order, invest the money in something that can tide you over, wait for the pre-orders to ship and for the factory to catch up, then order. Catching up should take 6 months or more.... but wait, you have already waited a year, what's the big deal?

I don't see the logic if you really believe this. I see a few more months.... I'm keeping the pre-order as a sign of what I believe will happen.

Even after typing all that, I can't help but feel I'm talking to a wall anyway.
 
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This is interesting :D A self-generation of a conflict out of nowhere. Slow news day effect?
 
At least all that is left to do is to put them in cases.

Many lessons learned for a Pandora2.

Once the 4000 are shipping it's going to be quite weird not having to work 20 hours a day and be constantly worrying. I guess we will just get going on batch2.
 
No, I totally understand your point of view. But I only gravedug that quote as an example to show how, with every step of the way, there have been unforeseen delays, and we've learned from them.

I preordered on day 1 back in 2008. Re-ordered promptly after the credit fisaco. I've never lost faith. No matter how long it would take, and how stretched it seemed to be getting. When I get mine, I'll be happy. I'm saying that unconditionally, with no dates. But I think we're all reasonable people here and no one needs to get extreme. Another year is excessive, and another 2 years means a refund to me. But we all know that won't be the case. If I personally expect June 2010, does that make it the official date? No, but it keeps me from getting antsy. When I preordered back in 2008 and they said "Christmas 2008", I thought to myself, "no this is going to be waaay 'awesomer' than that to be ready so soon."

It'll be ready soon. We can all smell the fresh plastic already. Judging by recent news on the cases and video demos, I would guess I'll get mine by March 2010, but still won't be painting protest signs and putting on war paint on my face by June.

PS: The good thing about being a wall is you get to be graffitied all over.
 
craigix said:
At least all that is left to do is to put them in cases.

Many lessons learned for a Pandora2.

Once the 4000 are shipping it's going to be quite weird not having to work 20 hours a day and be constantly worrying. I guess we will just get going on batch2.
Click to expand...

That is a bit comforting... just anxiously awaiting word from CE/FCC testing.
 
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