Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Please stay safe, y'all


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Woops! One more point. Levi, just to add a few more details:

1) They all tested positive for the chinese flu.

but!

2) You could still be correct that they have had the normal flu.

This is highly speculative as I have not looked into it enough, but apparently the creator of the tests used for the chinese flu is that the testing procedure is being used inapropriately and misdagnosing patients.

I cannot back this up, I just wanted to add that it is entirely possible that you are still correct on that point.
 
Rotterdam with drones. Feels like Halflife...
 
Yeah, China closed down million-people cities just for a little funny flu.
Yeah, doctors in Italy, Spain, France, UK were pissed off because their hospitals were empty. Some even died from loneliness.
Yeah, some crematoriums in France ran 24/7 burning empty coffins.

I have trusty reported cases of healthy people who died (50 yo father in law of a student' o mine, 50 yo friend of a close friend, 30 yo friend of a close friend, some neighbors).
I have a healthy ~40 yo cousin who caught the virus circa March and was sick as fuck, went into intensive care. He still didn't heal, he still got the virus in him and have to go to the hospital from time to time.
But I guess it's just my imagination making me believe, isn't it ?

So just be careful, even if it's not that deadly.

Oh btw: at first I though there was no way to know if the virus was "made in China". I thought he could well have been planted by an operative from another country.
Then I remembered my inability to imagine alternate views and explanations.
 
That is precisely what I am saying. Every year people die from the flu. This year is no different.

About .. maybe 13 years ago I had something similar to your 40 yr old cousin. I was deadly sick for 2 weeks, could not get out of bed (should have been hospitalized) and the my body hurt for 2 months after that.

I was back at work at about day 14, could barely walk or see straight but i went straight back to work. My body hurt like hell for about 8 weeks afterwards. I am the only one that got that in a company of about 800 at that time.

Is it real? Yes of course. Is it as bad as you say it is? Not even close. The paranoia is in your imagination because this happens all the time and the signaling you are getting doesn't have an open feedback loop to give you (and me) greater perspective. Some years it is a little worse, some it is not so bad.

You claim it is bad, I claim you are wrong because not only did 9 people in my family have it and have everything from barely nothing but a sniffle to being in bed for about 8 to 10 days and feeling like their whole body was about to die.

You claim it is the end of the world and we need to shut everything down. I claim you are acting like a woman and overreacting.

The same amount of people are dying this year as last.

Watch the video I posted, that PHD level doctor offers a perspective you aren't taking into account.

EDIT: I mean watch that video when you have time. There is no competition here. I could be totally wrong and accept that.
 
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Looks like you don't know that many people on these boards actually know each other in real life.
 
The same amount of people are dying this year as last.
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This is highly dubious, and I'd appreciate if you had any credible source behind this (not just a random conspirationist youtuber)

The number of deaths is significantly higher compared to last year according to government data. We're not talking "death attributed to COVID", just death in general. These stats are pretty reliable and very difficult to tamper with (compared to stats about "death attributed to covid-19"). And this includes countries like Brazil, where the government has been trying to downplay it.
They were already higher when the lockdowns started, so they aren't an effect of the lockdowns or other similar measures.

So there is clearly something this year that has been killing significantly more people than in the past years, and all signs point to it being a disease, with the consensus that it's COVID-19. But even if it was just a regular flu that was a bit stronger, it would be a case for concern. Shutting everything down is a shitty solution. A much better solution would have been to have well-funded public health systems that would have been able to tackle the problem correctly and avoid both deaths and lockdowns. But since our gouvernements have been selling out public services for the past 50 years or so, we were stuck with "lockdowns or significantly more dead people".
 
levi said:
Covid-19 is a serious disease for anyone above the age of about 10 years old, and younger kids can still spread the disease.
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My understanding was that it turns out to be mild for most people. Do you mean it's a serious disease because there's a risk to anyone of it going badly?

@Robert Taylor The problem is that a significant minority get seriously ill, and the virus has very successful spreading properties; so if governments do nothing and let half the population catch it, the number of seriously ill people becomes terrifyingly huge.
 
ElPoco said:
Shutting everything down is a shitty solution.
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That depends on whether you think the economy precovid-19 was worthwhile or not. But yes, shooting it down should be supported by building something else and that hasn't happened.
At the beginning I didn't understand the severity of COVID-19 and thought with a little luck, the shutdowns would save more people from contamination-caused diseases than the victims from COVID-19.
Unfortunately, I've been proved wrong. The shutdowns weren't long enough for that, and the reopenings boosted private transport instead of public transport, and e-commerce shipping to the door instead of picking merchandise from stores, so the pollution didn't improve so much :(

A much better solution would have been to have well-funded public health systems that would have been able to tackle the problem correctly and avoid both deaths and lockdowns. But since our gouvernements have been selling out public services for the past 50 years or so,
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amen . But not only public health systems, but public welfare systems, and a functioning economy, so that ill people could stay home and not go to work (in official or undergorund economy jobs) without starving.

we were stuck with "lockdowns or significantly more dead people".
Click to expand...

amen iff that's an inclusive or (it's mostly lockdows and more dead people, maybe because in may places they implement short/exception-rich/shitty lockdowns)


HelenF said:
My understanding was that it turns out to be mild for most people. Do you mean it's a serious disease because there's a risk to anyone of it going badly?

@Robert Taylor The problem is that a significant minority get seriously ill, and the virus has very successful spreading properties; so if governments do nothing and let half the population catch it, the number of seriously ill people becomes terrifyingly huge.
Click to expand...

@HelenF you answered yourself. COVID-19 is a serious disease precisely because it leaves many transmitters alive and even asymptomatic or mild enough that they can honestly doubt what they got. SARS and MERS, IIUIC, weren't so serious because they killed so much that the diseases killed themselves.

The problem is that (at least western) people have serious problems thinking about collective outcomes.
 
@Robert Taylor The problem is that a significant minority get seriously ill, and the virus has very successful spreading properties; so if governments do nothing and let half the population catch it, the number of seriously ill people becomes terrifyingly huge.
[/QUOTE]

Agreed with this in a general way. I wanted to just add weight to the other side of the argument.

ElPoco, as per answer to HelenF, I'm not here to win an argument, just offer a counterweight. I think I can provide some reasonable links, but, I am pushing my luck and making this conversation not fun.

I think there is a tremendous opportunity to bring optimism to the conversation and feel good about the situation. The conversation was spiriling into a kind of doom and gloom thing. For example, cdc (us agency, maybe you guys have eu stats that say something different) says chinese flu survival is 99% plus for ages 69 and younger and 94.6% for older. If you take into account fake stats (people without covid are actually being labeled covid, this is well known in the USA and ESPECIALLY in the UK as it is/was official policy over there) and if you take into account co-morbidities the survival rate may even be higher.

My father passed away when he was 80. He was supposed to die at 70 but a quadruple bypass gave him 10 more years of life. Most people die in their 70s. 99% survival rate for 69 and younger is a hell of a way of saying that even old people nearing the average life span end have 99% chance of not dying from this.

I'm only gently pointing out that the numbers point to the problem being doctors playing politicians and politicians playing doctors and us being too chicken to go against authority figures and just believe everything on the news.

Even if I am right, this does not invalidate your concern, I respect that.
 
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Here is a great experiment, Florida is staying open and banning mask mandates:

justthenews.com

Florida governor says the state will remain open without restrictions amid rising virus cases

Governor DeSantis is keeping all schools open and banning mask mandates.
justthenews.com justthenews.com

Prediction: Florida will have no better or no worse numbers than the most restricted place in America, plus or minus statistical variance.

If I am wrong, I am happy to be publicly wrong.

This is not only a great experiment on the numbers because he is doing it at the worst possible time the year when infections of all sorts spike, this is a great example comparing leadership between different regions on the western world.
 
If a large proportion of the population catches it, I think 1% deaths would actually be a lot for the world to deal with. And there also seems to be a larger group who don't die but have very unpleasant long-term consequences.

Anyway, we'll see what happens in Florida.
 
pyrat said:
The problem is that (at least western) people have serious problems thinking about collective outcomes.
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I agree. Hitler, Pol Pot and the Chinese Communist Party and BLM believe the same thing.

Are you ABSOLUTELY SURE you want to go down the line of reasoning you are alluding to?

When you say the collective outcomes, WHOSE collective outcomes do you mean? Your collective outcomes? Or mine?

Who gets to decide who is in what collective? What if I really don't like you and don't want to be in your collective? What if my collective wants to share a nice cozy gas chamber with your collective?

You aren't wrong, but, you also aren't right in the way that you believe you are right.

EDIT: I'm just teazing you a little bit. I can say that the only society that has gotten this right in the entirety of human civilzation are Americans. The more I listen to non Americans talk garbage, the more that I am convinced that they are the pinacle of our collective genious. You are right, a lot of changes are coming to the western world, but, they are not going to be the ones you want (judging only by the above post).
 
As a side point, I had a whole post written about evolutionary psychology and why you guys believe what you believe but deleted it. I deleted that, but as a counterpoint, if any of you are wondering why I keep on posting about this and related topics, a few data points:

* I am not interested in winning any arguments.

* I don't want to change any ones mind. Our opinions are assigned to us by society / systems around us. Whoever controls media, law, government and culture controls what you believe.

... but ...

* I think it is also REALLY interesting how fucking difficult it is to buck against the peer pressure to conform even in places as inconsequential as some of the threads here. You can just smell the sneering and piffling from most of you that REALLY need the chinese flu to be the spanish flu (wikipedia guesses 17 to 100 million dead, not sure if accurate).

Everyone here would have a much better time if I just didn't post and go against the grain. You can just feel it. The fact you have even tolerated my posts is kind of amazing to be honest and a huge credit to the really great people that you are.

... and ...

* I also find it REALLY interesting how a whole lot of posters even on here ARE DROOLING at the chance to tell other people what to do, what to believe, how to behave, to control other peoples private property ... it's fucking horrendous to be honest.

In other words, I am hoping that I have kept my posts relatively friendly and hopefully a bit challenging. I am interested in the broader scope around this topic particularly because some of you are sensing there is a change coming to the western world. The really important part is within the last point because instead of our fathers teaching us about how to balance individual and tribal responsibilities, they have allowed other groups to take control of our key cultural systems and take control of our culture imperatives.

This is what this conversation is really about. The chinese flu is just one of the many events that have happened (and will happen) through which we will need to calculate out our trajectories.
 
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NOTE TO MODS: I am posting a link that stretches this conversation into politics. Please delete if you feel this is inappropriate. We are discussing the minor details of a virus that has +99% survival rate but are really dancing around the larger issue that is underpinning all of the related topics: geopolitics.

Link:
A link to todays Timcast IRL podcast. Usually Tim and guests are very siloed into a single vertical topic but today they hit on most of the majour bullet points of the current state of global geopolotics and how they all tie together from the impact on the individual, to families through to the tribe, the coutnry and the world.

It's a bit serendipitous in relationship to this topic. At the end of the day, I agree with HelenF in principle, even 1% death rate is a huge number and scary. But, on the other hand, South Dakota has not been locked down and they have not had mandates since the summer and their numbers are the same as everyone elses. The same goes for Sweden. The west has had sanctioned communist rioting for months and not a single spike in the death rate has been recorded. Heck, the single right wing protest in one of the states against gun laws (100s of thousands showed up with guns) in one of the southern states (I forget which one right now) and the 100s of thousands that protested in support of Trump just recently and not a single spike in the death or infection rate has been recorded.

The hospitals are still empty despite all the riots, people not wearing masks, getting together, rioting, protesting, etc. If you turned off all the news and reporting on the virus, not a single person would notice it was happening beyond a slighty more infectious flu season.

I posted the Florida link because it is convenient and I would be happy to be wrong publicly. But the number will be the same because we have run this experiment hundreds of times already at all different scales.

If you have time, watch the Timcast IRL podcast. It is long, but if you were to think of the geopolitical data set NOT as a set of wiki pages but as a set of points in 3d space that describe a shape (click on a vertex and you get information about the topic and its relationships to nearest neighbour), they touch on most of the vertexes and really talk about the correlated issues in a genuine and well researched way.

SUMMARY: The external forces of global tribes fighting for resources, influence and power are forcing western civlizations to accept that we have been in a cold civil war since the 1960s. What is different now is that we are entering a time where this cold civil war may actually become a hot civil war. The chines flu is NOT a conspiracy to control people, of course. It is one of the many events that are going to be happening across the west as the interplay between internal forces that require us to survive and external forces that wish to dominate us force us to internally resolve the ultimate conflict:

Are you on the side of your own people or on the side of foreigners? One choice has a future, the other erases your future.

NOTE TO MODS: Once again, please delete if you think this post is not appropriate.
 
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The Florida "experiment" won't show anything.
If they get more infections, you'll say that it's because they faked the numbers or that it's because COVID efforts made the health sector less prepared for the seasonal flu or whatever explanation right-wing commenters will support.
If they have the same numbers as others, we'll say that it's because less cases have been imported thanks to the measures in other places, or whatever explanation the mainstream scientific community will support.
 
The Florida experiment isn't for me. It's for you.

It's called a "fake because". I'm pretending to demonstrate good will by offering an experiment whose outcome I already know and whose outcome you guys need to show you are right.

Of course I'm right. Sweden and South Dakota have been open all year and they have the same numbers as everyone else. Florida will be the same.

Watch or don't watch, up to you.
 
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