The 6200 has
very weak shader capabilities. GeForce 7's were vastly faster at that sort of stuff, and then GeForce 8's were
20x faster again. Yes, you read that correctly.
A friend and I ran some benchmarks in L4D and TF2. By turning off those shader effects (TF2, bloom, noise, etc.) in TF2, his 7600GT jumped from
20fps to
80fps.
By turning them off for my 8800GS, my framerate jumped from
50fps to ~
55fps (but I did have my settings set higher than him)
So a few shader effects were sapping 75% of his card's power, and barely 10% of mine. It really puts things in perspective.
Now, if Wikipedia isn't lying, the SGX530 supports up to DX10 in hardware (just no drivers available) - that means it's got to be at least slightly optimized for shading stuff. I think it's quite possible that it would fair better than a 6200 when it comes to shading.
Now, where would it fair worse?... probably raw polys, fillrate, and it obviously doesn't have the same RAM bandwidth as a desktop videocard. Luckily less polys and lower quality textures will look okay on a smaller screen.
All things considered... a highly optimized port remains within the realm of possibility - but things would definitely have to be tweaked.