Batch 2 Release Date

[VRAndy]

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What a Silly example. In that situation you WANT only the self-selected students. Who cares what grades non-students would have gotten had they been students? There is no selection bias in the example you just cited. The population you are interested in is the student population, and you can have accurate measurements on 100% of that population.

In this case the population we're interested in is the 3500 or so Pandora orderers. And the population we've "measured" is the 250 or so people who read the poll and decided to reply to the poll. (Who may or not have already pre-ordered!)

QUOTE
IIRC the Nielson ratings used to be extremely self-selected as well, since the results came from boxes that the end user had to not only know about and agree to, but manually control to indicate what they were watching at any time of the day!
Nielson uses a variety of methods. Including polls and set-top boxes like you say. (The boxes are automatic nowadays.)
But Nielson intentionally choose their sample carefully so that the demographics of their sample size match the demographics of the nation at large. You can't just call up Nielson and decide to participate in a poll, or a set-top box program. They call you if they need someone like you, And if you refuse, they try to find someone like you.
Nielson works very hard to avoid any sort of selection bias.

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You can't draw much in the way of conclusions from the others except that, perhaps, they don't like the forum much
If they're interested in poll data, and I'm not saying that they should or shouldn't be, but if they are, they should not rely on a self-selected one in a forum that only certain customers use. If they want a poll they should conduct it themselves. It's entirely possible to send an email poll to the entire list of existing customers.

The forums here are (Probably) heavily biased in favor of one or both of the following groups :
1) The people who are anxious over their $300 "investment" and want to either complain, or be reassured that they haven't wasted their money.
2) The people who are complete enthusiasts in the project and want to be involved at every step of the way. This people will hold out to the bitter end.

Either of those biases will skew the poll in one direction or the other, but it's impossible to tell which or by how much.

 

[Poeticshi]

Thanks for being professional and neutral monk ....I agree with your view. It just seems like these guys have way more invested in this dream than we do. I read ED talking about how much he has put on the line and I read about the struggle the rest of the OP team go through to make this project work and I think to myself....If these guys are that dedicated to risk it all than why complaint about 300 dollars. I understand not everybody has that kind of money to throw away but it's an investment. Shareholders lose money all the time when a product doesn't reach expectations. At least we have a chance to get our money back. Can't do that easily with big corporations

 

[Monk]

QUOTE
You can't draw much in the way of conclusions from the others except that, perhaps, they don't like the forum much
If they're interested in poll data, and I'm not saying that they should or shouldn't be, but if they are, they should not rely on a self-selected one in a forum that only certain customers use. If they want a poll they should conduct it themselves. It's entirely possible to send an email poll to the entire list of existing customers.

I honestly don't think they were THAT interested. They saw data in front of them, weighed it however they felt it should be weighed, and drew their conclusions - indeed, I doubt they would have spent the time to set up a full-client poll if only because of the seeds of doubt theat could sew. Can you imagine it? Little Johnny's mail gets opened by his mum, and it's those OpenPandora people asking if they should deliver an unfinished product or not deliver... Little Johhny is SO going to learn that when his father says it's probably a con, that it probably is! The next thing you know there will be Nigerian government officials involved and someone from Russia looking for a husband... err, where was I? Oh yes - I doubt OpenPandora ever thought "we should poll the end users", but when presented with A vote-one-a-plate they thought they could take that, with whatever weighting they chose, as a sample to consider. As long as enough of the pollsters were willing to hang in they could continue to improve the Pandora and thereby, hopefully, improve its long-term prospects. What the poll needed to show, in order to set a different course, was imminent danger of the time bomb going off. Any other result backs their initial inclination already to produce a Pandora as good as it can be.

The people who are complete enthusiasts in the project and want to be involved at every step of the way. This people will hold out to the bitter end.

Either of those biases will skew the poll in one direction or the other, but it's impossible to tell which or by how much.

Well, exactly, actually {skratches head}. That "skew" is, AFAICS, exactly the data OpenPandora would have seen and used to help them (HELP) decide on their course. I imagined it was precisely how many "yaysayers" against how many "naysayers" there were that they were looking at, nothing more.

 

[Phawx]

It just seems like these guys have way more invested in this dream than we do.

If you believe this, then why persuade people to cancel? Just to hear less complaining?

I was a big proponent of "More info || Radio Silence" in terms of Craig's terseness. But then it got a little TOO serious and the internet is not for serious business, amirite?

I can say wholeheartedly, I agree with both sides. However, the Pandora becoming real is more important then promises made. So I will sit and wait for my Pandora's.

It's going to take some more time. But there isn't anything we can do. Trust me when I tell you, no amount of cheering or jeering will have the Pandora come out faster. Again, (to everyone) enough with telling people to cancel their order. If you absolutely need the money, that's another matter entirely. But if you can hold out, please do so.

Thanks.

 

[Monk]

I read ED talking about how much he has put on the line and I read about the struggle the rest of the OP team go through to make this project work and I think to myself....If these guys are that dedicated to risk it all than why complaint about 300 dollars. I understand not everybody has that kind of money to throw away but it's an investment. Shareholders lose money all the time when a product doesn't reach expectations. At least we have a chance to get our money back. Can't do that easily with big corporations

Well, at the moment I'd rather minimise any talk of customers getting their money back - it's already been spent on buying the hardware, so refunds are likely to hurt OpenPandora. I'd rather people didn't get that notion too easily (note - anyone thinking of cancelling, immediately wipe the possibility from your memory. Listen to me, listen to me... or just stare into this red blinky thing for a moment, please...).

Just seeing/reading about the various events that have happened in this projects makes me cringe at what kind of marital unbliss these guys are in at times, as just one offshot aspect of the whole thing. I understand stress, perhaps not as well as I should but more intimately than I would like, and their partners are surely not as invested as they are in the whole concept so that just adds another level of stress to the situation. I sympathise as only someone who has been rushed to hospital in an ambulance due to stress-related {considers level of detail} issues can sympathise.

It's also pretty easy to call them "amatuer" and "unprofessional" but it's also fairly easy IMHO to call them damn unlucky. I think it's pretty easy to see that estimates should have been longer - far longer - if only to take into account "what they don't know". I mean, you don't plan for forseen problens, because they are forseen so you take care of them in the first place. You build in extra time and money for UNFORSEEN problems. So far, so fine and dandy. That should have resulted in more accurate, less infuriating projections. But... isn't there always a but? But who could have forseen, without much more experience and crystal balls than they have had, the extreme level of problems that they have encountered? I suspect that, had they issued more conservative, more realistic dates they STILL would have arrived here and now and not be in a significantly different place. The complaints would be similar, if not identical, only the dates would have changed.

I still hold that they could do worse than to stop giving optimistic dates. Give pessimistic ones or, better still, none at all, because optimistic dates lead to dissapointment, frustration, anger. Pessimistic dates may cause cancellations (NOT good) but also don't raise the ire of people when they are met, or beaten.

Oh - you people considering cancellation after that last line? Could you just look into this red blinky thing here please...

 

[Poeticshi]

To phawx and monks you guys are correct....and to all reading my post please pardon my wording. I do not want people to cancel....my problem was people that are impatient. This project is bigger than one person. This project is about having a dream device that big companies are not making. Again I meant no malice. DO NOT CANCEL!!!! lol we came this far as a community

 

[gaterooze]

So you have your limit too.

Absolutely, and if I reach it, I'll cancel my pre-order. Until then, though, I'm glad to show these guys some faith that they want the Pandora out the door more than anyone else and are doing their best to achieve that. They have a heck of a lot more to lose than us by not releasing it ASAP, and a lot more to gain than us by releasing it quickly. It's actually quite a pleasing sign that they are taking such care when they could have released a dogy product quickly.

 

[VRAndy]

decide on their course. I imagined it was precisely how many "yaysayers" against how many "naysayers" there were that they were looking at, nothing more.
Sigh. OK. I don't want to debate statistics here, but I can't rest when someone is wrong on the Internet. It's a personal failing of mine.

Here's the poll as it stands

73 respondents claim they will cancel before October 1st.
152 Respondents claim they will never cancel.
57 respondents are somewhere in between.

Perfectly Representative Sample
The niave reading of this is that 25.8% of the whole 3500 pre-orderers claim they will pull out before October 1st. For a total of 906 cancellations!

Forum Attracts Nervous People
Let's assume that the forum has attracted 100% of the people thinking of pulling out before October. Everyone else doesn't check the forums because they don't care about when Pandora comes out. In that case only 2.09% of the whole 3500 pre-orderers claim they will pull out before October 1st, for a total of 73 cancellations.

Forum Attracts Enthusiasts and Fanboys
On the other hand, let's say that 100% of the die-hard pandora fans voted in the poll. That means that there are only 152 die-hards, representing four percent of the whole. If the remainder is a representative sample, you've got 56.2% claiming that they will pull out before October 1st, for a frightening total of 1965 cancellations!

So we have three scenarios here with possible claimed pull-outs of 906,73, or 1965.

You say that they were watching to "See which way it skewed", but they couldn't possibly know.

Of course, if this were a random sampling, there'd be no problem, we'd use the naive model and multiply out the percentages, calculate the error bars and we'd be done. That is how REAL polls are done. They choose phone numbers either at random or randomly from a specific target group of people, and poll them. Even if we knew what the bias is, we could try to compensate for it. But who knows what kind of bias this poll had? Both of the "possible" scenarios above seem equally likely. Or, at least equally unlikely.

And that doesn't even consider these other problems :

• Not everyone who voted pre-ordered a Pandora. But how many of these "false votes" are there? And which way did they vote? Who knows.
• The poll is vaugly worded. What does " it's over for me" mean? I assumed it meant "I'll cancel my order", but did everyone interpret it that way? If not, how many people interpreted it diferently, and how did they interpret it?
• People bullshit on the internet How many of the 73 people will REALLY pull out when their day arrives? I'll bet less than a quarter. People are all talk. But how could I be sure?
• People LIE on the Internet Many people may have voted that they would pull out soon in the hopes of encouraging OP to somehow hurry up. Other people may have voted "I'll Never Give up" in order to encourage OP to take their time, or to encourage others to have patience.

Forum polls are nothing more than party games. Since I think we're mostly dudes here, it's more fun than Spin The Bottle, but it means even less.

Phew. Ok off-topic Tirade over. Sorry 'bout the long post.

If I was a betting man I'd guess that people will stick around as long as the information keeps flowing. Who would anyone cancel when every [X] days they read about new and exciting progress? I know some people disagree with me on this, but I enjoy reading even about setbacks. It's interesting to read about engineering problems and the ways people overcome them.

 

[Olexxy]

Thanks Ed for all the answers provided here

I don't write often here, I am just following with good interest the project, and will certainly not cancel my order based on the noise made by some people here, although I understand questions being raised.

In my view, there is no misleading at the time of preorders, I learnt about the project only 3 or 5 days before the pre-orders started, enough time for me to investigate a bit on the forum and understand who you guys were and the "start-up" side of the project. Pre-ordering a big toy is not a life issue for me and I can't understand people taking so seriously the level of "risks" associated with the project.. People should do their homework and balance desire for the pandora against credibility of the project and their financial situation, if not then impulse buying has never been associated with guaranteed long-term satisfaction...

Anyway openpandora is a niche project that I really fell for, especially for the open spirit in it and the good hardware choices, I am very glad that a team took on such a great project and is trying to turn it to reality, please continue and keep us informed of the progress

 

[EvilDragon]

I guess most people will cancel the order when there is NO progress made anymore.

This time may be the hardest, we don't have any videos or pictures to show to you which would be new (you've seen a working Pandora with mat in a CNC case, the only thing next to it would be the final Pandora which is what we're all waiting for).

As soon as there is progress to follow and we're nearing the completion, most people would most probably stick with us.

I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.

Well, I can just guess, but I surely wouldn't cancel it when I see how it enters mass production and I've waited for such a long time already

 

[gruso]

I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.
ooh, photos from the factory are a must! Even just a couple.

 

[Pleng]

I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.

Ha! ED finally confirms Craig's motivation for the "July" lie prediction!

 

[EvilDragon]

I can also imagine that some of those guys who said "I'm going to wait until July and then I'll cancel" will probably not cancel when we say in July "Mass production has started!" and provide some pictures of the moulding process or of the first 100 boards.

Ha! ED finally confirms Craig's motivation for the "July" lie prediction!

Well, BOARDS mass production does start in July, yes. That's pretty much sure (unless a lightning struck the company or something like that).
But the CASES won't go into mass production likely before August (might be early or middle August, depending on how fast the moulding can start)

 

[r00tw00t]

So late October is a good estimation when Pandoras will start to arrive all over the world(?)

 

[EvilDragon]

That's a bit late. If the case works out fine, we're definately talking about August

 

[Iorgy77]

So its two months again?

The people I feel sorry for are those that dont even bother with forums and blogs. I have recieved not one email letting me know whats going on since the refund fiasco so those folks probably just think they got royally scammed.

 

[(naw)mcx]

 

[Miknal]

So its two months again?

The people I feel sorry for are those that dont even bother with forums and blogs. I have recieved not one email letting me know whats going on since the refund fiasco so those folks probably just think they got royally scammed.

It is indeed, but take two months with a pinch of salt, Craigx said July, and seemed to be proven false within a week. And he is the fellow that runs the show.

I agree that a newsletter would be a good idea. The average punter is seeing no email correspondence, and a website that has been updated twice this year (which is being generous, seeing as one of those updates was a new years message). To be honest, I don't blame people for feeling a little paranoid.

Personally, I have asked for a refund. I still intend to buy a pandora eventually, and I do not believe it is vapourware, or that Craig is being dishonest. But as someone with limited disposable income, the £200 in the pandora means I cannot buy other things that would keep me occupied, and I would rather have £200's worth of items now than carry on hearing the rolling "it will be ready in two months" updates.
Sorry if that comes off as bitchy, but for all the talk equating customers jumping ship to idiots who do not understand what type of project this is, it is worth understanding that some of us didn't really sign up for the honour of supporting a technological revolution.
Some of us just wanted to play computer games.

 

[bzar]

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Please don't say things like that. I can already see the headlines:

A lightning has struck the factory! Pandora delayed until winter!

B)

 

[VRAndy]

That's a bit late. If the case works out fine, we're definately talking about August
Do all the cases show up in a giant box, or do you get them in small batches? If the latter, will the Pandoras go out in small batches? Or will you wait until all 4000 of them are finished?