Offical Blog: When In Panic, Fear Or Doubt ...

[hobbyman II]

I am a bit unsure about the huge price difference when several British and American firms are claiming they are competitive with Chinese manufacturers, especially when they advertise good rates for one off's and small production runs, maybe Craig got a quote from an expensive firm and thought they where all in that price range?, regardless, all we can do is wait, but if I ever am in the position of having something made in the UK or China, this experience means that I now have a distinct preference for having it done here in the UK if at all possible, they aren't doing themselves or other Chinese companies any favours, I work in the manufacturing industry on both design and production, and major products are brought to market from scratch faster than those cases are getting made.

still, it's a great chance to practice my unshakable Zen calm exercises again , pretty soon I will be levelled up to something higher than Buddha's personal best , I guess with the money up front and more profitable lines in production Pandora is a low priority, after all, from their viewpoint it's just some Geek project to make a miniature laptop or something, they probably don't "get" it at all, just "those crazy westerners" again :rolleyes: ,we consider the project important, but that's not necessarily anyone else's viewpoint.

 

[Grench]

I'm a bit confused how it ended up as 'payment in full' for the 10,000 cases before they even got the first one out. I could see a 'half up front' or something like that to make sure that the company didn't get burned, but... what is their incentive for finishing the job and doing it right?

At this rate the case could have been made in anodized aluminum.

My extrapolation...
-Round X of cases to MWeston leave China January 15.
-Round X of cases to MWeston get to him @ January 20th.
-MWeston tests for fitment, finish, etc... ~ 3-4 days.
-Green/other light January 25thish.
-If green - then MP starts at a rate of 1 per two minutes (single cycle), 120 per hour, 1200 per 10 hour Chinese work day ~ 8-10 days. Feb 5thish
-All 10,000 get boxed up, packed, placed on the big slow boat - you didn't honestly expect these to be sent priority... Feb 10thish
-30-45 days later the container arrives in a ship port somewhere in LA. March 20thish
-7 days later the sub-units from within the container clear customs and get shipped to the 'factory' and a call goes out to any enthusiasts who want to help assemble them. March 25thish
-Assembly and power/button testing and packaging/labeling takes about 4 minutes per unit. 4 people working 8 hour days making 15 per hour each ~ 480/day ~ 8 days.
-Ship the last one out - April 1st - assuming that this batch of cases gets a green light and the boards are already sitting on the bench ready for assembly.

Someone tell me where I'm wrong in any of the above or how this supply chain is going to be shortened... Please tell me? Pretty Please?

Back to waiting patiently.

 

[Paradox]

I dunno why you think april, in craigs recent christmas video he said he was hopeful people would have them in january

 

[Monk]

The price differences DO seem extreme, but also you have to bear in mind that apparently Craig has used this plastics/case/moulding/whateveryouwanttocallthem company before, so they were chosen at least in part because Craig has experience with them.

I felt I'd better back that up with a quote, so I searched and found several that might be thought to be of interest before I found the 10th September one I was looking for.

it's a total irrelevance really as it's all based on trust with the factory (as with most things), and we plan to use them until the moulds crack. We have (not openpandora) used this company before so we have past experience with them.

That's the reason we only used China for the cases, it's something I feel they can't get wrong once the moulds are good. We did look at making these in the UK/USA but the price was insane. Like close to a million dollars.

It's costing something approaching $100k in China.

I should also probably point out that there isn't really any delay happening here as the board production is the main thing, not the cases.

We will reveal the details of who we used to do what once everything is finished.

While hindsight is 20/20 vision, I still think it's worth noting that forum members were more concerned about the case - given the history of their development to that date - than the boards, and seemed on the whole to consider the cases the problem to concentrate on while the OP team seemed to be saying that the cases wouldn't be an issue. That last sentence to address any concerns of "how could OP know what would go wrong?" - forum members did. Not in the specific details, but we had a good idea which company and which part of the Pandora would be a likely sticking point

I hope ED simply misremembered the costings, or I've misremembered what ED said, because a hundred thousand dollars more is a lot less than the difference between a hundred thousand and a million In the area of money is where I believe I am most likely to have made an error

... and a call goes out to any enthusiasts who want to help assemble them. March 25thish

I believe that it has been pointed out that this will not be happening.

I dunno why you think april, in craigs recent christmas video he said he was hopeful people would have them in january

Probably because in June Craig was quite confident of July - and now it's January.

Rule of thumb - take whatever OpenPandora project and add some extra time. Historically, you will be being overly optimisitc.

 

[EvilDragon]

-If green - then MP starts at a rate of 1 per two minutes (single cycle), 120 per hour, 1200 per 10 hour Chinese work day ~ 8-10 days. Feb 5thish
-All 10,000 get boxed up, packed, placed on the big slow boat - you didn't honestly expect these to be sent priority... Feb 10thish
-30-45 days later the container arrives in a ship port somewhere in LA. March 20thish
-7 days later the sub-units from within the container clear customs and get shipped to the 'factory' and a call goes out to any enthusiasts who want to help assemble them. March 25thish

Are you kidding me? You think we'd let them ship the cases via boat?

 

[streak]

Im sure every parts are shipped via well organized c a m e l / elephant caravan from india

* from egypt

btw. whats wrong with "c a m e l s " -> Im getting "moron" instead of "c a m e l" after saving the post.

 

[Monk]

btw. whats wrong with "c a m e l s " -> Im getting "moron" instead of "c a m e l" after saving the post.

http://www.gp32x.de/board/index.php?/topic/48064-quake2-with-nub-control/page__view__findpost__p__730664

 

[Grench]

-If green - then MP starts at a rate of 1 per two minutes (single cycle), 120 per hour, 1200 per 10 hour Chinese work day ~ 8-10 days. Feb 5thish
-All 10,000 get boxed up, packed, placed on the big slow boat - you didn't honestly expect these to be sent priority... Feb 10thish
-30-45 days later the container arrives in a ship port somewhere in LA. March 20thish
-7 days later the sub-units from within the container clear customs and get shipped to the 'factory' and a call goes out to any enthusiasts who want to help assemble them. March 25thish

Are you kidding me? You think we'd let them ship the cases via boat?

Are you going to air freight all 10,000?

Rough estimate based on number of parts pictured and packing materials required to keep them from scratching each other etc... I'd put it around 750cc volume per case * 10,000 ~ 7,500,000cc or a cube ~2m per side. Assuming standard 1m^3 pallets - that is roughly 8 pallets of plastic parts.

Does anyone know what the air ship rate is for 8 pallets weighing 200lbs each from Beijing to Dallas is? I'm guessing it will be prohibitive for a company that is already in the red. Big pond between there and here. Jet or boat - not much in between.

Or am I just being a moron? (C a m e l = moron = me?)
Love that side thread btw...

 

[Grench]

I looked it up - it isn't as bad as I'd thought. Given the above parameters, the UPS site says $10,500 - $23,500 depending on the service requested and 4-8 days for delivery via pallet freight.

Rough guess, 1/2 container would be, what, ~$2,000 or so?

Or am I off in my volume calcs somewhere? I'm not infallible - and not trying to be negative. Just trying to come up with something reasonable from the information we have today.

Air freight instead of boat takes 22 days off my original estimate and puts it somewhere around March 10th.

I still don't see any way the average (#2,000) customer has any chance of seeing one until sometime in March. Sure, its possible that someone in the sub 200 range might see one off of the pre-10K order cases. But the average customers? Someone please tell me how wrong I am.

 

[WizardStan]

Does anyone know what the air ship rate is for 8 pallets weighing 200lbs each from Beijing to Dallas is? I'm guessing it will be prohibitive for a company that is already in the red. Big pond between there and here. Jet or boat - not much in between.

UPS shipping estimates put it at around $12'000 for next day delivery. $10'000 for one week delivery. This is with numbers I had to fiddle with to get the web form to accept though. I imagine a business account with proper numbers talking to a live person could do a lot better.

edit: gah, ninja'd.

 

[Nintendo]

I hope the UPS people are extra-extra careful with our fragile wares...because I've been to some of the UPS warehouses and have witness the carelessness (they just throw packages around like there's no care in the world) of their truckies and packers.

 

[WizardStan]

I still don't see any way the average (#2,000) customer has any chance of seeing one until sometime in March. Sure, its possible that someone in the sub 200 range might see one off of the pre-10K order cases. But the average customers? Someone please tell me how wrong I am.

Craig talked about having them ship a smaller batch of 1000 instead of waiting for the full 10K as a "peace offering" back early December. Like all things Craig says though, especially with my memory, this should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[it tech]

When it gets closer to the time for shipping the cases, maybe we can all chip in a little as it was suggested the other day, if need be to help with the shipping costs.

 

[atomicthumbs]

Why aren't you guys using displacers? They're less expensive than air shipping, and they move things instantly.

 

[greendots]

What would a realistic shipping date at this point; random dates have been thrown around by lots of people (non-devs). So Craigix or MWeston, what is realistic?

 

[Awakening]

What would a realistic shipping date at this point; random dates have been thrown around by lots of people (non-devs). So Craigix or MWeston, what is realistic?

Do you seriously expect an official answer to that? Do you expect it to be correct?

 

[Jumpman]

At this point, let's all hope and pray that at least 4000 cases get completed by feb 14th. That is the first big hurdle that needs to be met! That's really the only big concern anyone should have right now, as that is the Chinese New Year, and if cases aren't complete and shipped by that point, there really isn't much reason to guess on anything after that.


Chris

 

[WizardStan]

What would a realistic shipping date at this point; random dates have been thrown around by lots of people (non-devs). So Craigix or MWeston, what is realistic?

December of 2008, March of 2009, July of 2009, Christmas 2009, and probably sometime in February.

 

[Monk]

What would a realistic shipping date at this point; random dates have been thrown around by lots of people (non-devs). So Craigix or MWeston, what is realistic?

December of 2008, March of 2009, July of 2009, Christmas 2009, and probably sometime in February.

...of which year though?

 

[Bigun]

I do think the Chinese firm are dragging their feet, and I do think they should have made the cases here in the UK (or any Western nation), I am not impressed, :angry: Craig said that making the cases here in the UK was more expensive, but it sure as hell would have been faster, and how much more expensive? a few pennies a unit? surely we could have lived with the Pandora costing 10p more than it does (or even £1 more than does) as long as we actually got the thing in a decent time-frame, I'm normally optimistic, but this is getting to the point where it is dragging on too long, if you sent the CAD files to some UK firm the cases could be made before the Chinese get going at this rate (then you could use the Chinese cases on batch 2 when they finally arrive).

I wonder how much the case costs as a percentage of the Pandoras total price, it would be interesting to see what could be found as an alternative, I see some firms claim 99.3% surety on delivery times and ISO quality, something the Chinese obviously don't.

Either way, we're are too far in to worry about pulling out now. Only in the case of a complete botch-up will it be feasible to pick another company/country.