Microbatches And The First Batch Roadmap.

[TrevorBradley]

I recall someone, I believe it was Chip, mentioning that Pandoras would be produced in microbatches of 400 at a time, and be shipped out as they were tested.

I'm also pretty sure that my pre-order was exceptionally late, perhaps in the last 100 or so.

I'm feeling very confident that those of you who ordered in the first 400 or 800 are going to see your Pandora. But I'm trying to do a back of envelope cost/risk analysis of going for the pre-order or waiting for the second batch.

While sticking with the pre-order would be cheaper, waiting for the second batch would effectively leave my delivery date unchanged. I might wait a few weeks more for the second batch, but have a lot more security as reviews would start to roll in from those first 400 or 800 users. My biggest concern will be that there will be some sort of supply problem that causes delays or problems for those of us later in the queue.

I know this is going to sound demanding or nagging for some (I swear some here attack uncertain pre-orderers to free up more first batch Pandoras!) but is there a roadmap for the production of Pandoras numbered 401 to 3800? Are there going to be supplies on hand for the later microbatches, or will parts be ordered and assembled 400 at a time?

I'm expecting that first microbatch of Pandoras to be sent out in April or May, but it would be nice to know if I'd be getting my unit in June, September, or later...

Take your time in answering.. I probably have several days left to wait for my re-order mail to show up...

 

[mali]

IMO, every (known/proven to be) developer should be pushed to the front of the queue automatically.
My two cents.

 

[Kyo]

it's not going to leave your delivery date unchanged. I imagine it'd still be pushed back by a couple of weeks. Besides, I doubt there's THAT much of a difference between mine (right after it started) and yours

 

[tsh]

While sticking with the pre-order would be cheaper, waiting for the second batch would effectively leave my delivery date unchanged.

My feeling is that you're over-estimating the time that each batch will take. It obviously depends on how many people the factory has doing test and final assembly, but they need to match this to the capacity of their pick and place machine. I can see batches going through the factory within a couple of days, so of the order of a month for the full run. For the 2nd run, I'm sure you're looking at a few months after it all settles down to decide on the size of the run and get stock of all the parts needed.

You have to consider the risks to a 2nd run being the launch of another product which is too similar, or feature creep and migration to a new SoC.

 

[tristan.clark]

While sticking with the pre-order would be cheaper, waiting for the second batch would effectively leave my delivery date unchanged.

My feeling is that you're over-estimating the time that each batch will take. It obviously depends on how many people the factory has doing test and final assembly, but they need to match this to the capacity of their pick and place machine. I can see batches going through the factory within a couple of days, so of the order of a month for the full run. For the 2nd run, I'm sure you're looking at a few months after it all settles down to decide on the size of the run and get stock of all the parts needed.

You have to consider the risks to a 2nd run being the launch of another product which is too similar, or feature creep and migration to a new SoC.

+1

If you were to wait for the second batch, even though they are doing an awesome job with the software, I'm sure you'd benefit from increased optimisation and fewer bugs.

 

[fusion_power]

I hope, the mass production starts as soon as possible so the first batch can be shipped. It would be a good Idea, if serious Devs like Trevor get their Unit as soon as possible, independent of their ordering number.
I wonder if the Pandora team still waits for the CNC Prototype and only AFTER that thing is finished, the mass production really starts or if they start Mass production Monday too, so CNC Prototype and Final Injection Molding Cases are manufacturerd parallel. (its called "Multi Tasking" )

 

[_VWV_]

I wonder what quality control procedures will be implemented on the factory and if there will be more precautions with the first batch???????
If we get to know all this, then we can estimate the time gap between each microbatch within the first batch.
edit: typo

 

[torro]

Where is the clue in ordering a CNC prototype when you start the mass production at the same time?

 

[Karel Jansens]

Here're my two cents: I don't see at this point in time how a developer should be considered more valuable than someone who invested their money into the Pandora (which every pre-orderer has done!), and as such I don't see why developers should get their finished Pandoras earlier than the pre-orderers.

After all, all of us who pre-ordered have helped make the Pandora possible. We've given our money to the team, have patiently (some more than others) weathered the delays, have dutifully re-ordered when the credit card orders went tits up and have waited some more. And now we should wait even more because the first final Pandoras should go to the developers?!

If a developer wants to develop and hasn't put in for a developer board (the hint's in the name, people!), they can, AFAIAC, bloomingly well wait their place in line like everyone else. It's not as if my Panda will be useless without them.

 

[_VWV_]

If more developers = more games, than I agree with Karel. But if more dev = better optimization and usage of the hardware by the OS, then I'm all for breaking the queue. I think the last video we saw shows that responsiveness, time needed to load stuff e.t.c. can be further improved.

 

[Kyo]

oh come on, you guys. We'll still get those optimizations, you'll just have a slightly worse portable for a couple of weeks.

 

[joa]

Developers are going to develop whether or not they're first in line or last, I don't think we should (unfairly) mess up the pre-order queue.

 

[carlgeorge]

I would imagine that the gap between these 'micro-batches' will be only a day or two. Basically they'd build the first 400-or-so units and get them sent on their way while making the next batch. Why have thousands of units waiting around for every last unit to be manufactured? The shipping costs will be slightly higher, but it probably brings delivery of the first units forward by a few weeks.
Assembly time for each unit actually looks to be fairly quick, and with the way the Chinese manufacturers throw people at production lines I would imagine production will be completed within a week or two.
I'd get your order in with the first batch because the delay to the second batch will likely be a couple of months as parts are reordered, that's assuming the devs can get their hands on enough money to prepay all the components for a second batch.

 

[mali]

Here're my two cents: I don't see at this point in time how a developer should be considered more valuable than someone who invested their money into the Pandora (which every pre-orderer has done!), and as such I don't see why developers should get their finished Pandoras earlier than the pre-orderers.

The point you are missing here is that Trevor Bradley is a pre-orderer

 

[CCmachined]

if each 400 is shipped 3 days apart, then
total number of microbatches ~= 4000 / 400 = 10
10 * 3 = 30 days, putting the last shipped Pandora into May sometime (presuming first shipment in April).

 

[mali]

This is so just speculation.

 

[Monk]

While sticking with the pre-order would be cheaper, waiting for the second batch would effectively leave my delivery date unchanged. I might wait a few weeks more for the second batch, but have a lot more security as reviews would start to roll in from those first 400 or 800 users. My biggest concern will be that there will be some sort of supply problem that causes delays or problems for those of us later in the queue...

Take your time in answering.. I probably have several days left to wait for my re-order mail to show up...

There are several issues here, most of which have been covered well either in this or other threads. However one aspect I haven't seen mentioned in this thread (or lately) is that it's been said by OpenPandora (I can't recall if it was Craig, Chip, or Ed) that existing pre-orderers who wait for the second batch will have their price protected (so it should NOT cost more) and will get "priority" treatment over completely new second batch orders (which should mean you get an early second batch unit).

This is, of course, assuming that a second batch occurs (and if it doesn't then as a dev I imagine you'd be as dissapointed as the rest of us).

HOWEVER - don't count yourself so late in the "first batch" of micro-batches. It seems there have been enough cancellations to allow new first-batch orders, which means that everyone confirming their order will be moving up the queue as new orders are tagged to the end. You might have been in the last 100 units pre-ordered originally, but you arne't in the last 100 units now. Where you are exactly even OpenPandora probably don't know as more pre-order cash and cancellations are yet to come in, but if you stick with your pre-order you may well end up getting your andora1: faster than you expect.

Here're my two cents: I don't see at this point in time how a developer should be considered more valuable than someone who invested their money into the Pandora (which every pre-orderer has done!), and as such I don't see why developers should get their finished Pandoras earlier than the pre-orderers.

The point you are missing here is that Trevor Bradley is a pre-orderer


But he won't be if he doesn't re-place his pre-order, will he? I thought that was a large part of the point...

Even if he doesn't go for a first batch unit (which I think he should, personally) he's assurred a price promise and priority treatment as a second batch customer.

 

[Mithrildor]

My biggest concern will be that there will be some sort of supply problem that causes delays or problems for those of us later in the queue.

The only part that could cause delays is the LCD screen. But it was mentioned before that all screens were already delivered at Chip (If not correct me)

 

[joa]

Putting dev in first place is a bad idea. They're going to develop no matter what. The queue should be left as is imo.

 

[TrevorBradley]

I do not want to be bumped from my (crappy) place in the queue. For hardware and driver devs, people who will make the pandora usable (by which I mean working command prompt, and *maybe* that fancy Angstrom OS) on Day 1, by all means bump them up. But homebrew devs like me can wait.

I will instead encourage those people not developing at the moment to consider it if they have the time. It's loads of fun.

My question is just as legitimate for the person immediately before me and after me in line. I don't believe we've heard anything official about assembly time. It would be nice to get an "official guestimate" of the between batch time, double or triple it, sleep on that data and make my decision from there.

Apologies for my caution. I've had the rug pulled out beneath me enough times in my life that I like to take a pragmatic approach to all financial decisions. Then again.... PANDORA! OMFGBBQ!