Microbatches And The First Batch Roadmap.

[Monk]

Apologies for my caution. I've had the rug pulled out beneath me enough times in my life that I like to take a pragmatic approach to all financial decisions. Then again.... PANDORA! OMFGBBQ!

ROFLOL - join the gang! Wifey was shocked that I'd re-order without credit card protection. It's out of character - normally I'd say things like "if it's too good to be true (e.g. the Pandora) then it probably is". But in this instance the thing is just TOO good to pass up, IMHO. And wait? I've been waiting since early September for my "late birthday present". I can't wiat MUCH longer without something internal and probably oily exploding. And we don't want that - do we?

 

[Iorgy77]

A lot of people would have kept their refunds and been unable to or chosen not to re order, so your place in the queue might not be as far back as you think.

 

[Chip]

I don't believe we've heard anything official about assembly time. It would be nice to get an "official guestimate" of the between batch time, double or triple it, sleep on that data and make my decision from there.
Official guestimate: Four to six weeks from the first to the last of the first batch Pandoras. Give or take a couple weeks for testing and tweaking the assembly process.

Once the manufacturing process is 100% nailed down (2nd batch onwards) the plant can make ~5000 per month, though they can only make them as fast as we can get parts. Second batch will probably start up about two months after the first is finished (again, depending on parts availability).

So at least 3-4 weeks before first batch starts, 4-6 weeks after that it finishes, then ~8 weeks until the 2nd batch starts. If you want a Pandora soon, order from the first batch. Otherwise you'll be waiting a while.

A lot of people would have kept their refunds and been unable to or chosen not to re order, so your place in the queue might not be as far back as you think.
Not as many people have canceled as you might think. Last I heard, the total number of unaccounted-for orders (confirmed cancellations and preorder customers who have not yet repaid or canceled) was less than 300. If you pre-ordered and you still want a Pandora, reorder soon.

 

[_VWV_]

So the difference in the second batch may be as much as 2 months (8 weeks)! Wow. If they start mass production in March then it's MAY...

 

[Phawx]

Yea, March 1st production starts. 6 weeks later they are all finished. 2 weeks for delivery. Say the last Pandora from the first batch should be delivered at the end of April.

Not too bad. Almost at the end.

 

[lulzfish]

I hate to say this, but I think I'm going to wait for the second batch just to make sure nothing goes wrong. I probably won't have the necessary cooperation of my parents until a few thousand people already have them anyway.

 

[_VWV_]

Yea, March 1st production starts. 6 weeks later they are all finished. 2 weeks for delivery. Say the last Pandora from the first batch should be delivered at the end of April.

Not too bad. Almost at the end.

You've forgotten the "Give or take a couple weeks". + we have not applied a special time coefficient which is called "the official guesstimates multiplier"...

 

[TrevorBradley]

Considering back in the refund days, I got my refund email minutes before the "OK, all refund emails have been sent", I think I'm pretty late in the queue...

I don't want to be hopeful that more and more people are canceling and bumping me up in the queue. The success of the Pandora relies on a larger dev community, brought about by interest in Pandora because more and more are on the market:

Everybody's screwed if less than 4000 are produced.
We, the purchasers of the Pandora, break even (cashwise) if the first 4000 are produced.
Craig and the OP team break even (cashwise) if the second 4000 are produced. We the purchasers profit (software wise) from the extra devs brought in by interest in the project.
Everybody profits, in their own way, if the third 4000 is produced.

It's in everybody's interest that 8000+ Pandora make it to market. Anything less will likely be deemed a failure, which means less people will care about writing for the system and less software produced in horribly cyclical Catch-22 logic.

It's one of the main reasons keeping me in on the first batch: I want the project to succeed. Craig & Co are doing an amazing thing and deserve to be rewarded for it.

It's also in all of our best interest to show of this thing like hell when we get them, and try to get about 5 of our friends to buy one.

I've still got some time before my mail comes in, so I still have some time to parse and think about this. Would be nice to get an official answer to my original question before then though.

You've forgotten the "Give or take a couple weeks". + we have not applied a special time coefficient which is called "the official guesstimates multiplier"...

Not to be too cynical, but "Official Time estimate times 3" has been fairly close to the mark here in the past 6 months.. And it's never, EVER "Give an (extra) couple of weeks", always "take an (extra) couple of weeks". I think that's just a corollary of the 2nd law of thermodynamics...

Anyone suggesting the multiplier be less than 1.5 has never worked on a project close to this magnitude before.

Not that that's a bad thing. It's just reality for a new project of this complexity.

Official guestimate: Four to six weeks from the first to the last of the first batch Pandoras. Give or take a couple weeks for testing and tweaking the assembly process.

Once the manufacturing process is 100% nailed down (2nd batch onwards) the plant can make ~5000 per month, though they can only make them as fast as we can get parts. Second batch will probably start up about two months after the first is finished (again, depending on parts availability).

So at least 3-4 weeks before first batch starts, 4-6 weeks after that it finishes, then ~8 weeks until the 2nd batch starts. If you want a Pandora soon, order from the first batch. Otherwise you'll be waiting a while.

Thank you Chip. This is the information I needed to make my decision.

 

[Monk]

Not as many people have canceled as you might think. Last I heard, the total number of unaccounted-for orders (confirmed cancellations and preorder customers who have not yet repaid or canceled) was less than 300. If you pre-ordered and you still want a Pandora, reorder soon.

Good to hear, but it's enough that you're taking new orders for batch #1 even though the re-pre-order period isn't over yet.

It's one of the main reasons keeping me in on the first batch: I want the project to succeed. Craig & Co are doing an amazing thing and deserve to be rewarded for it.

It's also in all of our best interest to show of this thing like hell when we get them, and try to get about 5 of our friends to buy one.

It's a good couple of reasons - support for Craig & Co., and enlightened self interest. Let's face it, the larger the community grows the more we are likely to benefit from it on the whole. the more people see the andora1: do really good things, the more of them are likely to sell. I certainly plan on showing mine off to clients once I have it (I obviously can't show it to them beforehand). I can see it being of particular interest to some who'd like net access in a small form factor, but to whom the keyboard and screen of a mobile phone are just a bit TOO twee to be really useful.

 

[conso]

Woo, it's only a little more then 2 months to go! Wait... wasn't it the same a month ago? And 3 months before that?

I don't care for estimates no more. I still have my money in and it will be in at least till 8th of may, but I want to see progress and facts, no estimates. Did you even book the factory? Did they give you a date for starting?

 

[_VWV_]

If I'm not mistaken, the delivery was scheduled sometime around March (see guess thread. So maybe if production starts in February.. I know I'm being to optimistic, but if you really apply "the official guesstimates multiplier" (which has really proven it's accuracy) then the forecast will look awful.

 

[GuSec]

I ordered a leftover so I guess I'm in the end of the 1stB queue?
Anyway, It's awesome to have these figures! 7-12 weeks left before Pandora arrives!

 

[TrevorBradley]

I ordered a leftover so I guess I'm in the end of the 1stB queue?
Anyway, It's awesome to have these figures! 7-12 weeks left before Pandora arrives!

Wait a sec... How did you manage to order a leftover when I haven't even gotten my re-order mail yet?

 

[Isaac702]

Going by those estimates on the second batch they should start being manufactured in June. Although I would prefer to get one from the first batch my parents are refusing point blank to give money through a bank transfer or check.
Do you know if the situation with credit cards or paypal will be resolved for the second batch?

If not it will proboly help by showing that x units have already shipped so either way I should be able to get one from the second batch.

 

[DasFool]

Wait a sec... How did you manage to order a leftover when I haven't even gotten my re-order mail yet?

Maybe some of the people emailed a reply saying they were definitely going to hold off for now, thus opening their spot.

 

[tsh]

Wait a sec... How did you manage to order a leftover when I haven't even gotten my re-order mail yet?

It's not clear why you're waiting for a re-order email - the deadline is already set, and it seems that most people have already re-ordered en masse following that post. (hence the sales team maybe struggling to work out who needs a re-order email and hasn't already done so). I got a left-over too, and from a sales point of view, anyone's cleared bank transfer is helping to keep the project rolling.

 

[Chip]

Wait a sec... How did you manage to order a leftover when I haven't even gotten my re-order mail yet?
Maybe some of the people emailed a reply saying they were definitely going to hold off for now, thus opening their spot.That is correct.

 

[TrevorBradley]

It's not clear why you're waiting for a re-order email - the deadline is already set, and it seems that most people have already re-ordered en masse following that post. (hence the sales team maybe struggling to work out who needs a re-order email and hasn't already done so). I got a left-over too, and from a sales point of view, anyone's cleared bank transfer is helping to keep the project rolling.

I was hoping for the official email to ensure I had the correct banking information. Last I checked there was some confusion as to where stuff was supposed to be sent, as if different people were getting different info.

What about those poor folks who don't come here? 7 days from the receipt of email seems the only fair way to set a deadline. How many hours of notice is acceptable?

 

[Chip]

I was hoping for the official email to ensure I had the correct banking information. Last I checked there was some confusion as to where stuff was supposed to be sent, as if different people were getting different info.
The numbers posted here are verified correct.

 

[TrevorBradley]

I was hoping for the official email to ensure I had the correct banking information. Last I checked there was some confusion as to where stuff was supposed to be sent, as if different people were getting different info.
The numbers posted here are verified correct.


OK, I'll try to run out to the bank tomorrow if I can. Just don't forget those poor remaining folks who may not be checking here regularly and are waiting for notification by email.

EDIT: Just a note... If I had decided to pay via Tranzfers, I'd still be waiting for a snail mail message for verification of address. If I hadn't been doing active dev work here in the last week, I wouldn't have a clue what was going on. Try and give those remaining 300 people a little slack on re-ordering.

EDIT2: Dammit, bank is closed on Monday. More rings of fire to jump through.

*Goes to cool off, hopefully I'll be less frustrated tomorrow, as long as my Pandora isn't sold on me by then.*