Let's Send The Panda Back To The Forest

[Dunny]

Maybe silly Q,
but why would pandora be trying to be a next nintendo DS (or PSP or...) ?
It has it's "niche" and , while I do hope they sell more then 4000, I don't really see the actual need to flog like 100.000 of them.
As long as pandora is profitable and makes pandora ltd some (good) $/£/€ then that's fine.

no?

You're missing the point.

The Pandora isn't about being the next nintendo or sony handheld - what we're discussing is what is needed for the big companies to sit up and take notice (thanks, Mindlord) and produce big-selling games which will in turn boost sales of the Pandora by an enormous amount. The more units they sell in this first iteration, the better for all.

Why?

Because of competition. If the big companies see sales slump significantly (say, 1 or 2 percent) due to the superior hardware of the Pandora, and they see main developers take it on board, then they'll have to compete. That means that they will, instead of a new iteration of the same hardware (PSP Go, anybody? DSLite?) which they will rely on the general stupidity of the public at large to buy, they'll have to upgrade their hardware.

Of course, that is extremely hypothetical - Pandora isn't even going to attract the attention of known open-source friendly dev-studios like iD. It will be up to us as a community to port stuff as they release it, not for them to write stuff for our platform. Mind you, the app store looks like it is a step in the right direction, especially if people do start making money off their code with it.

D.

 

[Sphinxter]

I agree, brand pollution is a serious threat.

 

[Yoyobuae]

Pandora is a start. It's just the first few steps of a longer journey. I would definitely like to see OpenPandora to thrive and live on to produce Pandora2, 3, etc.

Right from the start the Pandora has attracted a pretty big community for something that is completely new (rather than the next gen of an already existing device). Moreover, this is a community that want this specific niche product.

For now the niche will have to do. As long as Pandora is strong in this particular niche, there is continuity in business for OpenPandora. And as long as they continue to operate, there is hope for expansion into other markets.

The greatest strength of OpenPandora is that they know what their customers want, they "hit the nail on the head".

 

[Dunny]

What's more, they do deliver. Despite the delays, OP have done exactly what we as a community asked them to do way back in the beginning - get it right. No more of the GPH fuckups. Built by people that understand what GPH did so disastrously wrong with both their consoles.

All the delays have been because we specified that we wanted it to work, and be as perfect as they could possibly make it.

D.

 

[atomicthumbs]

Wait, the GP2X failed? When?

 

[Dunny]

Wait, the GP2X failed? When?

Did for me, total pile of crap.

D.

 

[second exodous]

I'm finding I like the 'niche' products better than the big conglomerate products. I used to use Apple until I realized there was really no community behind it now like there used to be. I started using Linux because of the community and if it wasn't for this community I wouldn't have bought a GP2X. If Craig & Co. becomes a faceless corporation like everyone else I'll move elsewhere.

So I want the Pandora to remain niche supporting a niche OS and niche games therefor having a niche community.

 

[Jourdy288]

Wait, what if we go from niche to relatively large and Craig retains his face, will you stay?

 

[-Tj-]

I never expect to see millions of units sold. Nor do I expect the Pandora to be a direct competitor with Nintendo or Sony. And my statements were mostly hypothetical and "what if" scenarios. If OP ltd wanted to nudge the Pandora towards mainstream acceptance, what do people think that magical sales threshold might be before the big guys in suits sit up and take notice, and what kind of response that might illicit from the general public should such a thing happen. How do you guys think the general public might react if suddenly a noticable perchentage of people were carrying a Pandora instead of an iThingy, PSP or DS? Sheer speculation.

One thing you really, really have to understand is that those companies you spoke of, Sega, Activision, EA, etc... they're all corporate entities, almost like people themselves. The harsh, cold reality of it is that it's a bunch of people trying to make games for you and for me while keeping the corporate body fed. If the corporate body dies, you lose the business structure that keeps them alive.

Because of this, often these companies won't develop for hardware they deem risky for their business. Right now, Pandora's only got 4000 units pledged to the general public. PSP, NDS, iPhone... they all had millions in the marketing plans. Each of those sell tens of thousands units worldwide on a weekly basis. That means if game companies sell their games to even a small percentage of owners of those devices, they'll pull some kind of profit, and profit is what keeps those companies alive, their employees fed, and their investors happy.

Game development at the level those guys play at costs hundreds of thousands, and increasingly millions, of funds to develop, as they're paying several artists, programmers, musicians, directors, producers, and office workers their wages, covering their health insurance, paying licensing fees, and paying for the rent, electricity, water, and sometimes security. These aren't guys in basements paying little rent while living with their parents (even though sometimes these guys put out really awesome games).

I've hidden this lengthy breakdown, but here's the gist: The profit margin for large corporations on small-volume products like Pandora aren't large enough for them to focus on. You'd probably need the promise of hundreds of thousands of Pandoras in the public's hands before they'll consider even a port of a game.

Spoiler

Let's say it takes a year for EA to make a PSP racing or sports game:

Artists & programmers: $40,000 * 10 people = $400,000
Director: $60,000
Producer: $70,000
Office Workers (shared among many teams): ($40,000 * 3 people)/3 teams = $40,000
Benefits (health, 401k, stock options?): $10,000
Rent & utilities: $10,000 * 12 months = $120,000

Licensing for 20 songs (under EA Trax): $10,000 * 20 songs = $200,000

So maybe they want to pull $10,000,000 profit. Add in the costs of marketing, distribution, licensing, and production of the packaging and UMDs: $1,000,000

Your total to push the game is now $1,900,000. To pull $10 mil in profit, the game needs to sell $11,900,000. They sell the game for $30.

$11,900,000 / $30 = roughly 400,000 units.

There are 50 million PSPs out there. If they sell 400,000 units to them, that's only 0.8% of the total PSPs in the world.

Now consider the Pandora. 4000 units. If they devote a lot fewer employees just to port the very same game, let's take a look at what they'd likely need for maybe 3 months:
1 artist, 2 programmers: $40,000 * 3 = $120,000/4 = $30,000
director: $60,000/4 = $15,000
producer: $70,000/4 = $17,500
office workers: (see above) $40,000/4 = $10,000
Benefits: let's say $2000
Rent & Utilities: $10,000 * 3 months = $30,000

Let's assume the music licensing costs less now that they're already licensed for the PSP version: $10,000

Marketing is now a moot idea since Pandora's userbase is more informed, distribution is all digital, licensing is unnecessary or minimal, and there's no packaging. At most, they'll need a website addition to the original PSP version's page: $1000.

Total costs are now $115,500. Nice huh? We've stripped out millions, but that's because this is a port, not an original. Even still, in order for EA to pull any profit from this, they have to sell the game. If they sell it at cost to every Pandora owner, the game would still cost about $30 per copy.

I don't think the average Pandora owner will want to pay $30 for a game, so they'll have to either lower the price or factor in a percentage of owners who'd buy the game, but that doesn't really matter. As you can already see, it's not an attractive deal for EA, which is precisely why they wouldn't even consider making anything for it.

 

[DuFace]

I agree, brand pollution is a serious threat.

I feel like this is the only on-topic reply of the thread.

 

[second exodous]

I'm finding I like the 'niche' products better than the big conglomerate products. I used to use Apple until I realized there was really no community behind it now like there used to be. I started using Linux because of the community and if it wasn't for this community I wouldn't have bought a GP2X. If Craig & Co. becomes a faceless corporation like everyone else I'll move elsewhere.

So I want the Pandora to remain niche supporting a niche OS and niche games therefor having a niche community.
Wait, what if we go from niche to relatively large and Craig retains his face, will you stay?

Well, I mean if the OP team becomes a company and stops caring about their customers and/or sacrifice quality for money.

Also if Google or Microsoft offer them a big truck load of money to use android or wince then I'm gone. I would be happy for them that they're rich but I won't buy Pandora again.

These are big 'what ifs', I don't see it happening. I just see it happen all the time.

 

[joseluisjazz]

I used to use Apple until I realized there was really no community behind it now like there used to be. I started using Linux because of the community and if it wasn't for this community I wouldn't have bought a GP2X. If Craig & Co. becomes a faceless corporation like everyone else I'll move elsewhere.

And then your name will become 'third exodous'. I get it. B)

 

[darien]

 

[paldepind]

Haha! Lol

 

[Dunny]

I agree, brand pollution is a serious threat.

I feel like this is the only on-topic reply of the thread.

And yours was on-topic? OH THE HUMILITY. You Dick.

D.

 

[second exodous]

I used to use Apple until I realized there was really no community behind it now like there used to be. I started using Linux because of the community and if it wasn't for this community I wouldn't have bought a GP2X. If Craig & Co. becomes a faceless corporation like everyone else I'll move elsewhere.

And then your name will become 'third exodous'. I get it. B)

Lol, I'll only switch my nick if I 'exodus' Linux. I have Second in my nick because on IRC Exodous was already taken. I probably should have gone first exodous, but oh well.

 

[lulzfish]

Funny comic

To be fair, iPods are ugly pieces of crap.

 

[WizardStan]

Now consider the Pandora. 4000 units. If they devote a lot fewer employees just to port the very same game, let's take a look at what they'd likely need for maybe 3 months:
1 artist, 2 programmers: $40,000 * 3 = $120,000/4 = $30,000
director: $60,000/4 = $15,000
producer: $70,000/4 = $17,500
office workers: (see above) $40,000/4 = $10,000
Benefits: let's say $2000
Rent & Utilities: $10,000 * 3 months = $30,000

It doesn't actually take that long. Depending on just how many difference there are, it should only take 1 or 2 programmers 2 to 4 weeks. You usually don't need an artist, director, producer, or any of that other stuff, because this is just a sub project of a different project. You might have one director overseeing 12 programmers doing 6 or 8 different porting tasks, or something like that: the cost is still there, but it's pretty negligible. Probably closer to 30'000 for the entire project.

 

[craigix]

We could never sell hundreds of thousands anyway, we would never have enough money to make that many in one go.

4000-8000 per batch is our max unless something amazing happens.

 

[Yoyobuae]

Like I said, Pandora is just a start.

Maybe now isn't the time to be shooting for hundreds of thousands of sales, but perhaps it would be possible to expand the business little by little in the coming years. Got to learn to walk before starting to run.

If anything I wish success for OpenPandora in this and coming batches. It's inspiring seing a company like this take off and succeed. It also gives hope of a brighter future to come.