How long if I buy today?

[SteveInAustin]

I really just stumbled onto the Pandora a week or so ago, and I haven't quite grasped the reality of how soon it would be before I could actually receive the console if I bought today. Can anyone give me a heads up on that?


Supposedly there's a batch due out in the first quarter of 2011, but I understand there have been a lot of people who have made their purchases already many months ago. They obviously get first dibs. So I guess I'm wondering where I would be in the queue. Will I be able to receive one with this Q1 2011 batch, or would I have to wait until next batch?


Can anyone shed some light?


I'm also aware that there's some manufacturing issues with CircuitCo. I don't want to rehash that apparent flame war. But I guess after seeing that thread, I'm a little worried by it. Does it push back the schedule much? And when is the best ETA?


Thanks,


- Steve


Austin, Texas

 

[rabidpoobear]

Can anyone shed some light?


I'm also aware that there's some manufacturing issues with CircuitCo. I don't want to rehash that apparent flame war. But I guess after seeing that thread, I'm a little worried by it. Does it push back the schedule much? And when is the best ETA?

Hey Steve,


Everything pushes the schedule. I don't know how much you've looked into this, so I'll give you a bit of an idea.


I work in Dallas. I've been a professional programmer for 7 months now. I have a masters in Computer Science.


When I ordered my Pandora, I was still a student, and working on my undergrad in Austin.


And I still don't have mine.


I ordered within a few hours of the order page going live.


So no, you won't get yours Q1 2011. I might not even get mine by then. You MIGHT get it in 2011 if you make it in batch 2, but I wouldn't bank on it.


If you don't mind the wait, go ahead and order. It'll be a cool device eventually, once some of them exist and are in developers' hands. And being at the end of batch 2, you'll get a lot of the benefit from the software maturing.


But don't plan on having it by a specific date. Imagine a pit into which you are throwing $400 and a pandora will come out after an indeterminate time, or possibly not at all. And you should be fine.

 

[FaeMinx]

Though to be fair, a huge amount of obstacles have already been overcome and where we are now is looking hopeful. Especially with the second board company good to go by Feb. *touch wood*


I would estimate a best case scenario that we second Batchers start seeing units in 3 - 4 months. This is best case. Don't count on it, but I see no reason why not so long as we all stay calm and supportive (and keep on ordering Pandoras!)

 

[Timstertoo]

Though to be fair, a huge amount of obstacles have already been overcome and where we are now is looking hopeful. Especially with the second board company good to go by Feb. *touch wood*


I would estimate a best case scenario that we second Batchers start seeing units in 3 - 4 months. This is best case. Don't count on it, but I see no reason why not so long as we all stay calm and supportive (and keep on ordering Pandoras!)

Cesar says I have to be calm and assertive. I believe him.


The thing is that boards being finished doesn't equal Pandora's being shipped.


So to make some sort of guestimate find the max number of Pandora's assembled in a week on this board somewhere. Lower that number by a percentage that you think is reasonable for unexpected stuff and then do the mathematics.


If memory serves me right, and I really don't feel looking it up, they did something like 200 one week. Let's build in a nice and positive only 10 percent delay buffer. So 180 a week.


4000 in batch 1 minus 900 shipped is 3100 left to do.


Assuming CC starts spitting them out now OPT can start building full power jan 1st (I know they won't as the line needs to be setup again and people sorted etc but we need something to go by)


If they send out those 180 a week consistently from jan 1st it'll be 17 weeks and a couple of days before batch 1 is out. So my best case would be mid April for the first of the 2nd batchers to see their units.

 

[- Theo -]

The official answer that you'll get if you ask Pandora sales is Two Months


Keep in mind you're not dealing with Apple or Sony here, but with a bunch of fans who teamed up to build their dream machine. Buying a Panda is not only buying that product you want, but also (and probably most importantly IMO) supporting the idea, the concept and their work. It's a bit like an investment into a charity business: you're not sure to reap any benefit soon, but you like to be part of the fight. Personally, that's how I see it.


Bear in mind some people have been waiting their Pandora for years, something we would never accept from a big company. We're not only buying a game console here, we're making history. And that takes time.

 

[andyhamer]

Can anyone shed some light?

It's probably not want you want to hear, but it's near impossible to say how long you will have to wait (still) far too many variables at work, to give rise to any reliable information - i ordered on 1st Oct 2008, and have long ago lost count of the number of times i have prepared for the "imminent" receipt of my unit.


Before ordering decide how much (or not) you can live with the delays, and try to take some consolation from the fact that any delays you experience will be nothing like the ones all us early adopters have experienced & that you will also have the benefit of more/mature software.

 

[Grench]

Think of it as an entertainment expense...


You pay the $350-$400 and get to ride the waves of excitement and disappointment while following the triumphs and tribulations of a well meaning group of characters - and they are characters.


Then, someday, hopefully, a brown box will arrive on your doorstep.


I ordered October 1st, 2008. Still waiting.

 

[Caine]

I expect the second batch to ship around Q3 of 2011.

 

[SteveInAustin]

Okay thanks guys for the heads up.


If I'm reading this correctly, there are people here who sent in their money in 2008 and have yet to receive a single pandora console, more than two years later. They had to wait this long for the second batch which is due out 1st half of 2011. And even then, they don't really know if they'll get one, since there may not be enough to go around.


So from my perspective, I have no idea if I order now whether or not I'd be included in that second batch. They could have 4000 ordered but with 8000 people already signed up to get one, thereby ensuring that I wouldn't get one until the third batch which could be another two years from now. How am I supposed to know?


Based on that, I believe it would be too risky to buy right now. Only when inventory becomes available or when they can assure an actual shipment date to me would I buy.


That's too bad. I was very excited about the pandora.


I believe the OpenPandora team should seek venture capital to do this properly.


- Steve

 

[FaeMinx]

So from my perspective, I have no idea if I order now whether or not I'd be included in that second batch. They could have 4000 ordered but with 8000 people already signed up to get one, thereby ensuring that I wouldn't get one until the third batch which could be another two years from now. How am I supposed to know?

My place in the second Batch is 1000 - 1100 and I ordered about a week ago. OPT have a limit to the number of people that are able to order from a batch. In other words - if you order now you will definitely be in Batch 2... but if you decide to wait, then pre-orders for batch 2 could close and you'll have to wait even longer for a chance to get in on Batch 3... IF they do a batch 3.


You certainly cannot compare the delays Batch 1 have experienced (and are still experiencing), with the potential delays Batch 2 will experience.


Remember - the Pandora is now COMPLETE, and ready to go! Virtually everything is in place or is falling into place. There are always unforeseen circumstances and our good pal Murphy, but I would be far more optimistic about a reduced waiting period for Batch 2 pre-orders.


.... just don't be TOO optimistic

 

[SteveInAustin]

My place in the second Batch is 1000 - 1100 and I ordered about a week ago. OPT have a limit to the number of people that are able to order from a batch. In other words - if you order now you will definitely be in Batch 2... but if you decide to wait, then pre-orders for batch 2 could close and you'll have to wait even longer for a chance to get in on Batch 3... IF they do a batch 3.

Thanks for that correction, FaeMinx. I wasn't aware of that. That helps. I may actually order one after all.


By the way, how do you know your place in the 2nd batch?


- Steve

 

[FaeMinx]

Thanks for that correction, FaeMinx. I wasn't aware of that. That helps. I may actually order one after all.


By the way, how do you know your place in the 2nd batch?


- Steve

Glad I could be of assistance! And I hope you do decide to order a Pandora.


I simply asked Jacquelyn, who i must say was very helpful in answering all my questions and handled my order through Google Checkout admirably.


Try openpandorasales@gmail.com to get hold of her and get the ball rolling.

 

[WizardStan]

Based on that, I believe it would be too risky to buy right now. Only when inventory becomes available or when they can assure an actual shipment date to me would I buy.

That's probably a wise idea.

I believe the OpenPandora team should seek venture capital to do this properly.

Money hasn't really been the problem: they've taken out personal loans to fund the project themselves. They've mostly had problems with supply chain and bad parts (and a volcano). Yes, those things (except the volcano) could have been solved by throwing even more money at development, but that would also increase the cost of the Pandora, and they're already losing money on it.


On the plus side, once they start producing again, it should be a stead stream. The only reason things went on hold for this long is because of the problem with the nubs, but with 250 populated boards shipping next week and another 750 shortly thereafter (and the remaining 2000+ in progress, one would hope) seems like things are moving in a positive direction again.

 

[Blue Protoman]

Perhaps this time Two Months is a viable estimate.

 

[Grench]

Perhaps this time Two Months is a viable estimate.

For a hypothetical someone who would hypothetically order today?


Mmm... not so much.


~900/~3800 orders for the first batch have been fulfilled.


Of the 900, there will likely be a fair number of returns for repair and/or exchange to get new nubs and video cables installed - things that should be less of an issue with the rest of the units. However, this might slow down production in the short term - or at least I would expect it to.


So, that leaves around 3,000 units (+/-) that would need to be produced before batch 1 can really be done (remaining batch + RMA/repair)


The board production will probably speed up, but currently sounds like @250 per week. I'd heard 500 per week at one time - maybe they'll get there.


Assuming that the assembly set up in England can keep up with whatever the board manufacturer can generate (no idea), that leads me to the following:


3,000 @ 250 per week = 12 weeks = ~end of March to finish out the first batch.


3,000 @ 500 per week = 6 weeks = ~mid February to finish out the first batch.


Second batch people could run their own time tables - but the above pushes it far enough out that the assumptions wouldn't be reliable anyway.


I know it is easy to see the above and get depressed. Don't. I have built time tables like this in the past for this project, been lambasted by it's leaders for being too pessimistic, and been proven wrong. Unfortunately so were the project leaders.


Murphy has played a huge part in this project. I'll probably miss a few, but these are the highlights and lowlights (like highlights only not so much). Still, pre-ordering a Pandora gets you a ticket to play the game, "What the #$%^ will happen next?"


-Banking fiasco. A bank saw the huge balances from pre-orders rolling in and decided that capitalism was bad.


-China has some crazy holidays, and building beta case molds to send half way around the world becomes a complicated affair.


-Pandora consoles are small and light. Boxes with thousands of Pandora parts are big, heavy and take up a lot of space.


-Icelandic volcanoes can really mess with air freight shipments into Europe. They also have real crazy names. Eyjafjallajökull - Would you name your kid that?


-Nubs are made with specialized rubber that is subject to very exacting standards. Or at least they are now.


-Prototyping, testing re-design electro-mechhanical components can happen a lot faster than I'd thought it could. Really.


-Pixel Qi still doesn't make a screen that fits our device's form factor. (I thought I'd throw that in there.)


-Despite a 2 year delay, there still isn't ANYTHING on the market that can do what this little console can do. (ED's videos as proof.)


So - the longer you wait the deeper in the queue you'll be. There isn't a device that competes with this. Everything else fails in at least 2 or more aspects. If you order one, you get to follow along with the rest of us for the Open Pandora Console Adventure. However, don't expect to get it until the snow has all thawed.


Grench

 

[QBCS]

-Banking fiasco. A bank saw the huge balances from pre-orders rolling in and decided that capitalism was bad.


-China has some crazy holidays, and building beta case molds to send half way around the world becomes a complicated affair.


-Pandora consoles are small and light. Boxes with thousands of Pandora parts are big, heavy and take up a lot of space.


-Icelandic volcanoes can really mess with air freight shipments into Europe. They also have real crazy names. Eyjafjallajökull - Would you name your kid that?


-Nubs are made with specialized rubber that is subject to very exacting standards. Or at least they are now.


-Prototyping, testing re-design electro-mechhanical components can happen a lot faster than I'd thought it could. Really.


-Pixel Qi still doesn't make a screen that fits our device's form factor. (I thought I'd throw that in there.)


-Despite a 2 year delay, there still isn't ANYTHING on the market that can do what this little console can do. (ED's videos as proof.)

Don't forget the time the van caught fire.