MrBlais said:
Monk said:
Then bear in mind that, in fact, that "demand" (after the first 4000) has yet to be measured. It has yet to appear, so it's probably quite difficult to determine how large it is - when there are still a hundred or so first batch units to sell, it might be unwise to order a second batch of 4000.
Yeah, think of how hard it is to sell the first 4000... They haven't even done that yet.
-- The Pandora needs some market exposure first and some good "word-of-mouth" attention. I've already been spreading the word about the Pandora all over Minnesota. [I'm doing MY part...]
Yup. I think there are several causes for optimism - the kit itself looks quite nice on paper (yes, even a year later it STILL looks pretty good) and of course there's us lot (you're not alone in mentioning it in positive terms, though it's not made easier by being still a "virtual" machine) including the rather capable devs who seem to hang around all day being clever. But still, I wouldn't blame them for (say) wanting half the next batch ordered before they start manufacturing. At the very least, guage how well the tech sites like the Pandora when there is one to actually review.
There should also be all those people who would have LIKED to order from batch #1, but couldn't because they had to use credit cards and have not realised the OpenPandora will now take CC, or whose parents won't buy them one until they ACTUALLY exist and can be PROVEN not to be a con, beyond all reasonable doubt. We don't really know how large that group is, but I'm sure it exists to some degree.
Vorporeal said:
The only real issue I can see with holding off on production of the second batch (delaying it more than the time it takes for production) is that some commercial developers demonstrated interest in porting software to the Pandora if its user-base is large enough. The longer between batches, the longer it takes for us to get large-scale commercial applications (yes, I'm considering pay-to-play indie games as commercial applications). I'm not saying that this is a deal-breaker or something that could cause massive problems, but it's something to consider. I guess the dev team could take pre-orders, then email developers saying "We've sold 4000 Pandoras already, and we've got orders for 5000 more. That's 9000 so far, and we're planning on producing more past those. Interested in porting your stuff over?".
There are currently about 300 units unsold - these are 100 that they hope to sell from the first batch and 200 "spares" or 2extras" to take account of any failures. If there is a REALLY hot prospect (I don't know - iD or Microsoft or 2D Boy or something) then I suspect OpenPandora might stretch their rules just a tad to use one/some of those last 100 or even spare 200 from the first batch if it's really likely to help expand the market.
Oh yes - that's assuming that, as Craig has intimated, they "close" pre-orders on the first batch while there are some unsold. I'm not quite convinced on THAT point, having seen them use "closing pre-orders" as a stick to beat people who are on-the-fence before now and then extended the deadling by days...weeks...months...holy cow, nearly a year now!
But even if they don't extend the ability to buy from batch#1, they should still have SOME units (up to 200) in reserve for emergencies. "John Carmack wants to port Quake 4 to the Pandora" would probably count as an emergency.