I would say do this: go with the original ~4500 suggested, but look at the percentage CPU time DOSBox is using. Over all of the games you test find the average CPU time used, then scale the number of cycles against deviation from the average. This should give some indication of capable cycles if the Pandora scales in CPU usage anything like your CPU does. It'll still be pretty off, but it'll be better than just going with 4500 cycles suggested.
EDIT: Actually, rather than scaling the number against total CPU time you'd have to first test at two different cycle points (per game) to find how much of the CPU time is spent in cycle emulation.
So something like this:
game A: 10% @ 4000 cycles, 11% @ 5000 cycles
game B: 25% @ 4000 cycles, 27% @ 5000 cycles
game C: 8% @ 4000 cycles, 8.3% @ 5000 cycles
A: 1% over 1000 delta-cycles, 4000 = 4%, 5000 = 5%, 4500 = 4.5%
B: 2% over 1000 delta-cycles, 4000 = 8%, 5000 = 10%, 4500 = 9%
C: 0.3% over 1000 delta-cycles, 4000 = 1.2%, 5000 = 1.5%, 4500 = 1.35%
Average @ 4500: 4.95%
A deviation: 110%
B deviation: 55%
C deviation: 366%
A adjusted cycles: 4950
B adjusted cycles: 2475
C adjusted cycles: 16470
Of course, these numbers are exaggerated for illustration purposes.