Declining Npv == Ship

[daffy]

I'm expecting to get two years out of my Pandora. Three if I'm lucky. But I expect there's a good chance a better replacement will come out in about two years, at which point it will be worth little. I'm spreading $300 over two years.

If the choice is get the device now in a fully functional but less pretty state, versus getting the device in two months, this doesn't seem to be much of a choice to me. 2 months out of 24 is about 8% of the time I expect this thing to be useful. Roughly speaking then, I'm not just waiting a couple of months, but I'm paying $25 for the privilege.

I just wanted to point out this calculation for those who might not have thought of it, and for the few people who've said that they don't understand not wanting to wait for the thing to be perfect.

Peace out.

 

[mali]

Drop the math and engage you heart. Your decision to jump on the Pandora wagon can't have been purely rational, else you wouldn't be here any more. Introducing bare logic now is the attempt to create a point. Whatever, I see where you are coming from, but this is just another one on the list of similar threads

 

[MiniSinisterMinister]

Drop the math and engage you heart. Your decision to jump on the Pandora wagon can't have been purely rational, else you wouldn't be here any more.

Well, maybe I won't be here for much longer. Because you are right. The project is going nowhere. Its fault lies in the roots (excepting high quality from a cheap 3rd world company and not facing reality). Even if you keep your preorder, you won't have the Pandora significantly sooner than a regular customer. So what is the point of preordering? Supporting the project? OP does not really care what my needs are. I could just as well get my money back and by this thing if and when it is available.

 

[laurencevde]

2nd batch will also be preorder...

You're assuming there will actually be a better replacement in about 2-3 years. That remains to be seen. Also, you expect Pandora1 to be useless and worthless after that. If you yourself can't find a use for it anymore, you can always give it to a younger family member, or sell it.

They won't really lose any value for as long as there isn't anything comparable in the same price range.

 

[MiniSinisterMinister]

I won't preorder again. I would just buy it from ebay once there are some final units in the wild. There will always be people who find that the Pandora is not what they expected or that they do not really need it after all or they suddenly need the money etc. etc. This whole preorder thing doesn't make much sense anymore because if they want to go mass market anyway, you can just buy it when it is available. They have stated on serveral occasion that they are not willing to go for small runs. So why should I stick with my preorder? They are not willing to deliver anyway.

 

[Kangal]

Drop the math and engage you heart. Your decision to jump on the Pandora wagon can't have been purely rational, else you wouldn't be here any more. Introducing bare logic now is the attempt to create a point. Whatever, I see where you are coming from, but this is just another one on the list of similar threads

Mali ... your pic disguists me. It makes me want to find you and choke you, sorry but that's the reality.
And why the heck would you go hard on this guy for?
He's just introducing a new method of thinking, it may be too rational for you but you always seem to forget that there are people in this universe that dont think like you. Yes, its true, I've seen them, in fact regularly. I mean your type of response, we dont need it and surely dont appreciate it.

I say +1 to daffy for expressing his opion without backwashing it in propaganda.
I have to say I actually like his method of looking at things. I surely didnt think with his method.

Why?
New ARM processors are coming soon to make a revolution. It seems Pandora will have an early grave.
So yes, it's very realistic to think you wont be using it in 2 years.
(I know you will say you'll play with it forever, but you've said that too many times as a kid)
After 2 years the value of Pandora will be same or (more likely) less than a used PSP-3000, not more. Its pretty obvious.

I was going to drop my order, but I'm waiting on the decision to be made. It just feels like Pandora will never be made, like its a scam (refer to XGP). Notice the word "feel" and "like" in that sentence.

 

[mali]

And why the heck would you go hard on this guy for?

This place seems to be a bit polarized right now. My post isn't meant hard in any way

New ARM processors are coming soon to make a revolution. It seems Pandora will have an early grave.
So yes, it's very realistic to think you wont be using it in 2 years.
(I know you will say you'll play with it forever, but you've said that too many times as a kid)
After 2 years the value of Pandora will be same or (more likely) less than a used PSP-3000, not more. Its pretty obvious.

I'm fully aware of what's to come. Btw, I won't play much cause it's an UMPC, thus I can't respond to your PSP analogy.

Edit:
As a side note, I know what MiniSinisterMinister means, because I'm following the discussion on two different Pandora boards. I disagree with him, though. We shouldn't forget all the other less vocal first batchers. As it seems, Craig still plans to make a small run with imperfect cases(MWeston confirmed it this morning) so this is moot anyway.

 

[Jumpman]

I think at this point, most of the problems everyone is having, will be gone once the teams gets a bigger run of cases. Everything is just differant in the MP process VS. sample process! Getting 500-1000 is a really good idea, and then the team can see the mass production quality, and make any changes from there.

Seeing as the test cases function as they should, there really isn't much that can be done until the factory starts to MP! Right now, I think the team just had a unrealistic expectation for these test cases(in turn, we all expected to much)! If I remember correctly, it was ALWAYS said the the sample cases will never have the finish quality of the MP ones, as it is to much cost and effort to do for a handful of cases! I was always under the impression the test cases where purely to test out the functionality, and nothing else. Considering the mould factory got that right after the second case, I think the team should go with 500-1000, and see what happens. They can start shipping to those who want them, and who knows, those MP cases may come out very close to perfect, and then problem sovled!


Chris

 

[mali]

^I tend to agree.
I've read many useful posts among the less useful that support this thesis. I suppose that the company just reacted to Fatih's bugging and put the tool back into a machine in a hurry to crank out some samples. Maybe they don't even know what those western guys want from them, as they've pointed out in the past already, that samples won't look like MP cases. The crack in the hinge might be the result of a half assed assembly of the tool to get those seven case samples out of the door, for whatever reason those western guys want them.
Asking them for 500 pieces of cases better than rev. 2 including finish and silk screening sounds reasonable to me. A quick conversation on Monday might solve this issue.

 

[Gerix]

Drop the math and engage you heart. Your decision to jump on the Pandora wagon can't have been purely rational, else you wouldn't be here any more. Introducing bare logic now is the attempt to create a point. Whatever, I see where you are coming from, but this is just another one on the list of similar threads

Mali ... your pic disguists me. It makes me want to find you and choke you, sorry but that's the reality.
And why the heck would you go hard on this guy for?
He's just introducing a new method of thinking, it may be too rational for you but you always seem to forget that there are people in this universe that dont think like you. Yes, its true, I've seen them, in fact regularly. I mean your type of response, we dont need it and surely dont appreciate it.

I say +1 to daffy for expressing his opion without backwashing it in propaganda.
I have to say I actually like his method of looking at things. I surely didnt think with his method.

Why?
New ARM processors are coming soon to make a revolution. It seems Pandora will have an early grave.
So yes, it's very realistic to think you wont be using it in 2 years.
(I know you will say you'll play with it forever, but you've said that too many times as a kid)
After 2 years the value of Pandora will be same or (more likely) less than a used PSP-3000, not more. Its pretty obvious.

I was going to drop my order, but I'm waiting on the decision to be made. It just feels like Pandora will never be made, like its a scam (refer to XGP). Notice the word "feel" and "like" in that sentence.

Three weekends ago, I hooked up my Genesis and played Street Fighter. Half a year ago, I bought a GBA and Gamecube. There was a 16-bit processor available when the Famicom was being developed, but Nintendo decided to go with the 8-bit to keep costs down.

Just because a system doesn't have the latest technology doesn't mean it isn't fun. Anyway, even if new technology comes out, will there be a product that targets Pandora's market segment? Even if it took 100% of Pandora's market share, such a system would be considered a failure by most manufacturers' standards.

And I don't think mali was being hard on anyone, but rather saying that the Pandora experience is going to be more than the speed of its CPU.

But I see the point that others make saying "why should I lay my money down?" The Pandora team should do something to thank those who have stayed the longest, but what?

 

[Exophase]

I won't preorder again. I would just buy it from ebay once there are some final units in the wild. There will always be people who find that the Pandora is not what they expected or that they do not really need it after all or they suddenly need the money etc. etc. This whole preorder thing doesn't make much sense anymore because if they want to go mass market anyway, you can just buy it when it is available. They have stated on serveral occasion that they are not willing to go for small runs. So why should I stick with my preorder? They are not willing to deliver anyway.

Be prepared to pay a huge premium on something off of eBay. They need the preorders for funding, that's all there really is to it; even the first batch probably won't give them the kind of capital necessary to fund the second batch.

The dwindling value argument is made under the assumption that something functionally equivalent (but better) will be released any time soon - so far the only thing I have any confidence at all in fulfilling this role is a Pandora 2, which is going to be the same X amount of time after Pandora regardless of when it launches. The combined gaming + MID/UMPC/whatever device concept must not be considered more than very niche when Pandora is the only thing attempting it, period. There might be some companies willing to reproduce Pandora's success IF they show they're capable of selling at least dozens of thousands, but those companies won't begin seriously investigating a design until after Pandora is out and has proved itself, so even that is being delayed with Pandora. The only companies I would expect to copy it outright are Chinese ones, but Pandora is just too high end and expensive for us to see something equivalent, much less more capable. We'll probably just get cheap-ass ripoffs that are worse in every way, so no threat there.

 

[Loonie]

Technology is only as good as what's done with it. I see no sign from any of the big players that they are even working on a device like this, let alone imminently releasing one with faster hardware.

 

[MiniSinisterMinister]

The dwindling value argument is made under the assumption that something functionally equivalent (but better) will be released any time soon ... The combined gaming + MID/UMPC/whatever device concept must not be considered more than very niche

But is it really necessary to have a UMPC and gaming handheld in one device? Some people here are more interested in the gaming aspects while others just want an UMPC. For either faction there is bound to be something in the future which makes the Pandora look not so hot anymore. And even if there are aspects like the community that make the Pandora unique, waiting for years for something to come out in this fast-changing environment of devices does not make much sense to me. Maybe OP should have started with something less ambitious like a good GP2X substitute. With more experience they could have tried something like the Pandora later.

 

[mali]

I'm a total gadget freak and yes, an UMPC with gaming controls is what I'm waiting for.
Quake with dual nubs will rock in gaming mode. Using one analogue as mouse, shoulder buttons as mouse buttons and the other analogue for scrolling will be efficient in productivity mode. No need to talk about the awesomeness of a keyboard _and_ a touchscreen.

 

[trooper]

But is it really necessary to have a UMPC and gaming handheld in one device? Some people here are more interested in the gaming aspects while others just want an UMPC. For either faction there is bound to be something in the future which makes the Pandora look not so hot anymore. And even if there are aspects like the community that make the Pandora unique, waiting for years for something to come out in this fast-changing environment of devices does not make much sense to me. Maybe OP should have started with something less ambitious like a good GP2X substitute. With more experience they could have tried something like the Pandora later.

Two words, Pocket Amiga.

Trooper

 

[VRAndy]

Drop the math and engage you heart.

You should sell that slogan to the Lotto Commission.

 

[mali]

:lol:

 

[VRAndy]

This place seems to be a bit polarized right now.

You're right, but actually, I'm not sure why. If Craigix plans to make a mini-batch of Pandoras with the less-than-perfect cases and give them to people who want one, why would anyone that doesn't want one care one way or the other?

(And those of us who do want one, should probably wise up and stop trying to convince other people to take one, otherwise there might not be enough to go around!)

 

[mali]

It's always the same. The frustration after a big hype(following the UPS shipping status this time) tends to go a bit over the top.

 

[trix]

But is it really necessary to have a UMPC and gaming handheld in one device? Some people here are more interested in the gaming aspects while others just want an UMPC. For either faction there is bound to be something in the future which makes the Pandora look not so hot anymore. And even if there are aspects like the community that make the Pandora unique, waiting for years for something to come out in this fast-changing environment of devices does not make much sense to me. Maybe OP should have started with something less ambitious like a good GP2X substitute. With more experience they could have tried something like the Pandora later.

Two words, Pocket Amiga.

Trooper

There may be a superior gaming handheld in the future. There may be a superior UMPC. But when I can get BOTH, plus media playback, a Linux OS (ESPECIALLY Gentoo when available!!!), Free software, and a pretty awesome screen, for $330 or less, THEN I might consider Pandora replaced. But, only if it has awesome gaming controls, a full keyboard, xfce4 or e17 or Gnome, USB Host port, and an insane battery life.

I don't think the Pandora will be replaced anytime this decade. Or in the next. My old Linux PC is now 7 years old, and it was pretty much crap when I bought it (Shuttle PC). I haven't upgraded it as I don't often play newer games like Bioshock2 or whatever the current college popular game is now, and I probably wont bother upgrading or replacing it until I either have a lot of extra money to blow or it stops being able to do what I use it for. Read: Hardware failure.

I see the Pandora the same way. However this all turns out, I plan on having and using my pocket buddy right up until it breaks on me. Then, I'll try to ghetto rig it to work again. If electric tape, aluminium foil, and some wires, can't fix the problem, I will send it in to OP and get it fixed. Or, buy another.

As far as the consumer market goes, I don't think anybody will make a device perfectly suited to me the way the Pandora is. In fact, I'm STILL getting over the shock of finding a device in production that is so specifically what I want! I mean, I wanted a laptop or netbook for portability, but, I knew I wouldn't lug one around no matter how small, unless it fit in my pocket. I had an iPhone, which I did mini-browsing on, and it kicked ass as a pocket pc, but had serious flaws, and gaming on it sucked. The Pandora is friggin PERFECT! It addresses all my problems with the iPhone's PC capabilities (real keyboard, xfce4 desktop, full browser, good resolution, full linux OS, no jailbreaking necessary, multitasking, etc), while at the SAME TIME addressing all my problems using it for gaming (Real buttons and controls, fullspeed PSX [I had a 3g not 3gs], nubs! as mouse, USB port for REAL mouse, long battery life!, etc etc etc). The Pandora can't call people (except VOIP which I do use, and should work fine), but for HALF the price (I paid $600 for iPhone) it can do soo much more. And I only compare it to an iPhone, which I admit is not fair (iPhone for different market), because though it's a completely different product intended for completely different end users, it was still the nearest thing available to what I wanted on the market. Until Pandora.

I would happily pay $600 for the Pandora, and consider it a great deal.

- trix